The Author

Charles Hyder
http://www.wippfast.com/main.htm

holds B.S. and M.S. degrees in physics from the University of New Mexico (1958,1960),
and a Ph.D. in Astrogeophysics from the University of Colorado (1964).

He has published more than twenty solar and comet papers. He has worked, for NASA,
UCLA, UNM, and the Southwest Research and Information Center.

He was an early whistle-blower, presenting effective and unacceptable criticism of plans
for radwaste disposal in New Mexico, particularly at the Department of Energy's
Waste Isolation Pilot Project (WIPP) near Carlsbad, NM.

He and nineteen other radwaste experts were employed by the government of Lower
Saxony to critique the Gorleben Salt Dome project, which was ultimately rejected.

In 1986-87 he underwent a seven-month fast in Washington, DC, protesting against War.
In his book, Human Survival On A Plutonium Contaminated Planet, he
commits to another fast. "Terminal," he says, protesting the proposed opening of WIPP. It
will remain open, "over my dead body."

His book provides the science which underlies that kind of certainty and
commitment. Survival is not a "given" on this planet Earth.

Suggested links:

http://home.acadia.net/cbm/
http://www.prop1.org/
http://www.lasg.org/
http://www.emnrd.state.nm.us/wipp/index.htm
http://www.amadorbooks.com/books/pluto.htm
http://rgfn.epcc.edu/users/ad343/wipp.html
http://www.sric.org/
http://www.nuclearactive.org/index.html
http://antenna.nl/nukeatlas/
http://www.sierraclub.org/nuke/index.html
http://www.wipp.carlsbad.nm.us/


Human Extinction
on this

Chernobyl-Contaminated

Planet

by

Charles L. Hyder

TREASON

by the world's Nuclear Establishments

has changed the earth into

A Global Nuclear Trap*!!!

The World's Dying Amphibia

are

Humanity's Obituary by Example.
 

*450 Operating BIG NUKES, plus Thousands of Mid-size ones.



Table of Contents

i     Second Degree TREASON
ii    Open Letter
iii   Corrections of "the book"
iv   Fundamentals First
v    Resonance
vi   Preface
vii  One World Mandate
viii "What Can One Person Do?"

1. Outline and Introduction
2. Summary
3. Total Amounts of Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239 and "the HOTS" Released into the Global Biosphere, 1945-1998 AD
4. When 's? When ß's? When 's and When All Three?
5.  The ß-Emitters, Sr-90 and Cs-137
6.  "The HOTS", <1 Month
7.  Chernobyl IV, 26 April 1986
8.  Analyses, Results and Error Bars
9.  "The Table"
10 The Global NUCLEAR TRAP
11 What You Can DO About Global Sr and Cs
12 "The Nuclear Exclusion Clause", ...
13 "Depleted Uranium Penetrators" (Socorro, N.M.; Iraq; Kuwait;...)
14 "Natural Reactors," WIPP, "Genome", etc.
15 The 21st Century, "Our Trial by Radioactive Fire (and Ice?)"
16 "Murphy III" in Action: A Real Doomsday Scenario
17 What I Have Learned About the WAIS
18 The Final Figure
19 Conclusions


Second Degree TREASON




People in "The U.S. Nuclear Establishment" (Government, AEC, NRC, DOD, DOE, DOI, DOC,) repeatedly, knowingly and criminally fabricated, have withheld and suppressed crucial information from U.S. Presidents, Congress, et al., throughout the crisis period for irreversible NUKE proliferation in the U.S. (about 104) and in the world (>450).

Nuclear Power is a dead horse. The only question is: Are we humans, and all life, going to get dragged down with our hi-Tech Nuclear Albatross?

I charge the top Nuke-heads, CEO's, etc. with Second-Degree Treason!!! I do not believe that any of them set-out to betray anyone (much less their nations, or themselves). Their blind enthusiasm for their Nukelear Grail allowed them to commit ever-greater crimes, and hide more-and-more data, in the name of their "holy, deadly, Nuke World" the "Won't Work, but kills if we Fire 'Um Up!" Indeed, they were all "civil servants" working for the benefit of their stockholders 9the enfranchised class in capitalism).

That's 1952 to 1999 in the U.S. and in Russia, China, etc. That is information crucial to National Survival! Now we are all in a NUKLEAR TRAP in which millions of people have already died, many more have suffered, and billions more will die before the 21st Century is over. Human extinction will be inescapable if a Chernobyl "Copycat" disaster occurs before 2015 AD. Like in Russia after Chernobyl, global "Life Expectancy" would decrease to 40 years, then to 20 years; THEN THERE WERE NONE LEFT ON EARTH!
 

I CALL THAT TREASON WITH MALICE; Treason Run Amuck!
 
 

DOE Treason? That's a Serious Charge!

I believe in the idea that Intentionally Withholding Crucial, Relevant Evidence from the President of the United States at a time of National/Global Emergency is an act of Treason. That is certainly true for anyone working for the U.S. Government (by Oath or by Contract), ditto for any State, County or Municipal Government, and hopefully for any U.S. Citizen.

It is in that context, and in the inescapable belief and conviction that the operation of WIPP will lead to Human Extinction if even 1/100 of the WIPPu reaches the biosphere*

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* That may occur soon: e.g. during the 30 yrs. of radioactive transport accidents; or a prompt Radioactive Brine/Gas Geyser Erupt; or a "Karst Connection" for water to scour WIPP in 10 to 100 years; or ...

during the next 30,000 years. So, WIPP operation gets "National/Global Emergency" status. Thus, I charge that the DOE, the AEC, et al. have been guilty of Treason for Intentionally Withholding Crucial, Relevant Evidence about the real biological Hazards of Radioactivity from the U.S. President, from the U.S. Congress, from their own workers, and from "The People" throughout most of my long life.
 

The Global Amphibian Extinctions are Chernobyl's ominous Legacy: Their Deaths are an "Epitaph by Example" for Humans.

An OPEN LETTER to an Impeached Bill Clinton:
 

Betrayal

Disgrace

Humiliation
 

These are the lumps in the Cereal of Deception that you have poured on your life, on your Presidency, on Our Nation, on "The People" and on your paragraph in the History Books.

WIPP and the Inescapable Promise of ever-MORE Chernobyls and "Depleted Uranium Penetrators" provide you with an opportunity to replace that dark paragraph with the heroic lead line in the History of Human Survival on this Planet Earth.

Thus, Mr. President, we know that WIPPu threatens Human Survival, yet you think that opening WIPP is a good risk? That is not the first bad idea that you have had lately.

With all of these threatening possibilities, how can anyone who is aware be in favor of releasing all of that radioactivity into the world's defenseless populations?

You can rise to the occasion now, while all of your options are still open, and TAKE THE BIG RISK: STOP WIPP while you remove federal funds and subsidies from all Large and Mid-size U.S. Nuclear Reactors (commercial, Naval, NASA, DOD, DOE, Air Force, Army, etc.) and from "Depleted Uranium penetrators." In this way, you will don the dream-mantle of "Champion of Human Health and Survival", and there would be a chance for our future to live because of you. Oh, indeed, the U.S. House of Representatives would impeach you AGAIN, and the U.S. Senate would surely convict you for cause this time.

If, however, you do not want to risk donning that mantle; and you wait until you have no other choice (like you did with the Jones/Lewinsky fiasco), you will reinforce the derision and blame that weigh heavily on your already-chiseled shadow paragraph.

The prompt, inevitable, deadly and inescapable Chernobyl-imitators, and "copycats" continuing use of "Depleted Uranium Penetrators" and Radioactive WIPP Transport Releases that follow will highlight your final literary edifice:
 

"Bill Clinton the U.S. President who cheated, lied, and was impeached, opened WIPP, procrastinated and Doomed Humanity to Miserable, Radioactive Mass-Extinctions during the 21st Century!"
 

Feast or Famine Bill; you have a real, tough, high-risk, BIG PAYOFF second chance; don't waffle this one away too.

Anxiously,

We, History and 50,000 generations of Humans, yet unborn, await your next big move. "Business as Usual" won't erase anything but us!
 

P.S. If abortion is murder, what is the predictable radioactive instrument of Human Extinction???
 

RSVP

Corrections of "the book":




In "the book" the amount of WIPPu was often stated to be >55,000 lbs. The most recent WIPP/DOE documents indicate >11,000 lbs. of WIPPu is now appropriate. That number will change before WIPP is over.
 
 

In the Glossary (pp. 150-151):




"" should be "- alpha particle (He nucleus)"

"ß-" should be "- negative beta particle (electron)"

"t2" should be "- time between consecutive chargedparticle hits ( or ß) in agiven genome"

"WIPP" should be "- Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, ... for "High Level" (not "Spent Fuel Rods"), Medium and Low Level U.S. Nuclear Weapons' wastes"

"WIPPu" should be "- Plutonium scheduled for, and deposited in, WIPP."

p. 124 "(55) A tree called me to the phone."
 

In general, the claims in "the book" that plutonium is responsible for the global amphibian extinctions, etc. must be restricted to the localized regions, and to the long term, where and/or when t2(Pu) t2(Sr, Cs, Xe, Kr, etc.). But, it is all Chernobyl Radioactivity that has caused the recent global amphibian decimations, perhaps synergistically with microbes, viruses, and other toxic substances.

Fundamentals First
 

These two books are the opening salvo in my Passionate Pilgrimage to WIPP.

The DOE choreographs the onset of that Pilgrimage (25 March 1999) with their shipment schedule to WIPP.

These books are an anti-Nuke anti-"Business as Usual" warning that makes the nuclear threat to human survival mathematical, quantitative and inescapable: The "Window of human survival" will be closed and locked by WIPP, or by The Next Chernobyl.

Some solutions are mandated, and some are difficult to achieve quickly: No Nukes; No Radioactive Releases; No Milk; No Meat; and No More "Business as Usual"! Our Capitalism has shown that it is Terminally Incompatible with radioactivity which harms and kills years to generations after Exposure.

This book advocates a fundamental change in the ways that decisions are made about globecidal materials, policies, laws, industries, programs, plans, etc. The proposed new basis is common sense, based on sound scientific knowledge and understanding, and on a primary commitment to DO NO HARM to public health and safety. This position implicitly adopts a responsibility to and for "The People" who are alive and yet unborn. That opportunity supercedes the usual economic, legal, corrupt and political considerations that usually determined "decisions." Those are the traditional "considerations" that trapped us all in this radioactive straight-jacket; and we have been sent off to climb the Everest of Human Survival on a Radioactive planet.

The AEC, the nuclear industry, the U.S.-led nuclear governments, et ilk have conducted this globecidal radioactive experiment in secret behind a veil of war, denial, secrets, lies, intimidation and punishment.

Now, The Radioactive Amphibia have "come home to roost on our doorstep" worldwide; we are surrounded by our dead, dying and mutant amphibians (fellow vertebrates with huge genomes), and we are being told how "safe" radioactivity is, or "how good it is for us."

We need our large brains so that we can adapt quickly and survive! Well, it is time, once-again, to get in touch with what is real and to use our brains to survive the radioactive trap that threatens our survival.

This book is part of my effort to bring these Crucial Studies to the attention of The "President", "The People", et al.
 
 

Resonance




It is everywhere - All of us feel it - we are all doing it, seeing it, feeling it. A great crescendo is growing. It permeates everything, and everything is more vivid, more vital, more cheerful.
 

A great, powerful truck and its load of radioactive wastes will float down as a large region of Karst geology subsides and cuts off the road to WIPP as a milky way supernova sparkles into life in the "virture" constellation. The weight of the great wrong focused before the truck is more than the porous Karst can take.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* If "the planets" are not "aligned" at the time, their adjustments would be startling (or don't they have to be aligned during BIG terrestrial events?).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 

Do The Millenium Makeover for the Earth:

"NO NUKES!"

is the Global Makeover for the Millenium.




The global mantra of the 21st century will be ". . . nonukes, nonukes, nonukes, nonukes, . . ." and give yourself up to what that means as your Chi commitment flows . . . nonukes, nonukes, . . .
 

Mr. Gore, this is what it takes for you to be "environmentally correct" in the 21st century. Join us.
 
 

Good Luck to all of us; so chant:

"NONUKES, NONUKES, NONUKES, NONUKES, NONUKES, NONUKES, NONUKES"
 

I apologize to the people who have been hurt by Chernobyl who do not appreciate having their inescapable fates publicized. I hope that these presentations and predictions help you.
 

This study transfers "the burden of scientific proof" to the nuclear devotees who must now show that these results are significantly in error, or they must persue and execute the

"No Nukes!" and "No Release" mandates.
 

I hope that this book and this life are helpful to all living things.
 
 

Preface




The expression "the book" refers to the original book "Human Survival on a Plutonium-Contaminated Planet".
 

This 2nd Volume is more technical than most of "the book" has been.

Our World Mandate




Help us give our youth a way to survive in the 21st century: Raise them "Vegan," or strict Vegetarian (no meat, no milk, no eggs, no ice cream, no cheese,...), and they can choose otherwise when they wish to purchase and to prepare their own meat, milk, etc. Start Now. "The Path is Narrow and Few shall pass."
 

Our mandate for the next 25 years is:
 

"No Nukes!" means shut down 200 "lemons", "rotten apples" and "retirees" of our 450 large nuclear reactors by 2015 AD; no variances. This is primary and crucial for Human Survival!
 

"No Releases!" means put all synthetic Radioactivity (Pu, Sr-90, Cs-137, etc.) into RSSF's (100 years of "Dry-Cask" Storage) before 2020 AD;
 

"No WIPP!" is the cost-free first step! This is just as crucial.
 

"No More 'Business as Usual'!" means to require governments, Industry, and Commerce to be legally Responsible for their hazardous programs ((1) put the Burden of Proof on proposers of large-scale hazardous programs; (2) "Legal Standing" for the Inevitable Victims of those programs; (3) a U.S. Department of Technical Responsibility, Human Survival and Ethics, etc.; and (4) the use of sound scientific knowledge and understanding as the only basis for decisions regarding these globecidal radioactive hazards).

"What Can One Person Do?"




One Person Can Refuse to Quit, refuse to step back in the face of overwhelming power and overwhelming odds when that "Person" is pursuing a holy appeal to "A Higher Court" to Right a Great Wrong; and to resist any effort to make that Great Wrong become a reality.
 

This book, and the methods that I use to STOP WIPP (and to bring the findings, predictions and proposals in this book to the necessary forum before "The People" of the U.S. and of the world), is my spontaneous, outspoken witness to "What one person Can Do" to Stop This Great, Radioactive Wrong!!!
 

"One Person" can commit to a terminal fast:

A "terminal fast" is an enduring, Primal Cry.

It is an endless, Mournful Howl from the depths of growing fear and intolerable pain. It is a Silent Scream; all Begging for Respite.
 

On 25 March 1999 *i committed to a terminal fast! That fast will end when WIPP closes its gates permanently!

Either WIPP Will Die, or i will die in this Crucial Confrontation!!!
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*WIPP-bound trucks left Los Alamos that evening (surrounded by police, a SWAT Team, choppers, planes, etc.) and started a new era on this planet.

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This effort is designed to "to place before humankind the common sense of the subject in terms so plain and firm as to command their assent, and to justify ourselves in the independent stand we are compelled to take. ... it* was intended to be an expression of the American mind, and to give to that expression the proper tone and spirit called for by the occasion." 1776:

T. Jefferson on "His task" as he prepared to write "The (U.S.) Declaration of Independence."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*This book and the continuing effort to Stop WIPP, etc.
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Outline and Introduction


The largest uncertainties in "the book"involved the quantities of radioactive Pu, Sr, Cs, etc. that have been released into the biosphere. This study begins there, then shows maps of radioactive fallout from NTS, from U.S. nukes and from Chernobyl IV. "The Species Survival Equation" is generalized and applied to Sr-90+Cs-137, U-238 and "The HOTS" (short half-life isotopes from fissions with lifetimes, 1 month). The results are presented with their downwind fallout distributions for the NTS and for Chernobyl IV.

The Chernobyl IV explosion(s) in 1986; and its local, then global, releases and contaminations are studied quantitatively. The predictable local, then global, impacts of amphibian and human exposures to Chernobyl's enormous radioactive releases are presented. The observed decade of global amphibian decimations and extinctions plus surprising increases in human cancers and Russian death rates are explained quantatively; and the mandates for human survival on this Chernobyl-contaminated planet are discussed.

Since another Chernobyl-like reactor disaster before 2015 AD would lead to a second series of global mass extinctions that would include all mammals (Humans, mice, pets and whales), how to prevent "The Next Chernobyl" has become a primary goal for humanity. Many other environmental crises in the 21st century will further tax human capacity to survive.

How "The Nuclear Exclusion Clause" in your insurance policy(s) and "The Price-Anderson Act" keep you from compensation for nuclear reactor disasters is discussed, and the Conclusions of this study are presented.

How Your diet can protect you from radioactive Sr and Cs contaminations is presented.

Finally, regular worldwide measurements of Cs-137 concentrations etc. in healthy, mutating, extincting and extinct amphibia, humans and our environments will clarify the impacts of Chernobyl's Radioactive Releases on the earth's species. Those same measurements will also test and refine the mathematical model presented in "the book" and generalized herein.

I apologize for publishing these studies before all relevant data had been tracked-down and presented, and before all theoretical avenues had been exhausted. It is now late

March 1999, and the DOE has started Pu shipments to WIPP. SO, I need to hand this manuscript to the web-publisher so that this 2nd Volume can be added to "the book", and hopefully it will be published on "the web" before Mayday. From that time on, my life will be a nonviolent commitment to stopping each WIPPu load from entering the WIPP site.

Summary


This book repeats, expands, completes, and reinforces the study started in "the book": "Human Survival on a Plutonium-Contaminated Planet," 1998; Amador Publisher, Albuquerque, NM.

The Pu- study of how radioactive insult causes genetic damage in living cells is generalized and clarified via a sound, quantitative foundation, and inescapable conclusions follow.

So the observed decade of unique and elevated global amphibian decimations that started at Chernobyl right after it exploded in 1986 was caused by 30 to 300 lbs. Pu, >300 lbs. of Sr-90+Cs-137 and >3000 lbs. of short lifetime "HOT fission daughters" (<1 month). These Chernobyl releases into the local and continental biosphere (then spread worldwide during the following weeks, months and years) more than tripled the amount of Pu in the biosphere, and increased global Cs-137 by 15x to 60x!

Continuing exposure to increasing concentrations of intracellular Sr+Cs will begin to decimate all large carnivores and the most sensitive flowering plants during the next 9 to 99 years. So,
 


Become "Vegan" Now;


and you and your children can survive the radioactive purge of carnivores, and milk and egg consumers that will grip the 21st century.

Quantitative determinations of amounts and locations of large scale radioactive releases during 1945-1998 show that the northern hemisphere is thoroughly contaminated by Chernobyl IV's explosive releases of Sr-90+Cs-137 and of Pu, etc. in April, and May, 1986. Only a radiation detector (Geiger Counter, etc.) can show people where to live, farm, work, play, school, survive, etc. in regions of minimum radioactivity. The Southern Hemisphere (with fewer than ten large nuclear reactors) looks like the best bet for surviving the Global Radioactive Purge that threatens all life in the Northern Hemisphere with more than 430 large, operating Nuclear Reactors.

Block radioactive Sr-90+Cs-137 from your body by taking survival overdoses of stable Ca and K; and block Pu from your body by excluding all Meat, Milk and Eggs from your diet.

Experiments are proposed to clarify the roles of Pu, Sr-90+Cs-137 in the decade of global amphibian decimations. Although WIPP is to contain 12,660 lb. Pu and only 1.3 lb. Sr-90+Cs-137, because of their short lifetimes, the Sr+Cs would dominate WIPP bioinsult rates by 10x for the next century.

The continuing operation of 450 Chernobyl size reactors on Earth guarantees another Chernobyl-size radioactive disaster during the next 20 years. Only single celled life forms would survive the decades of global mass extinctions of species that would follow.

Closing-down 200 of the Earth's 450 operating nuclear reactors before 2015 AD requires that measurements of Pu, Sr and Cs concentrations in healthy and extincting amphibia be conducted worldwide. The longer we wait, the more likely we are to be "Too late!" When The Next Chernobyl explodes in the Northern Hemisphere, only the Southern Hemisphere can offer humans any chance of survival. Move now and lead the rush.

Most of the WAIS contact surface with continental rock is 1 km. below sea level. Global warming of the atmosphere and of the seas 9both maximum at the poles) could cause the entire WAIS to float and produce a catastrophic 20 ft. rise in sea level worldwide!!! I have no way of estimating how likely this kind of an event is.

Overall, the WAIS has disappeared several times during the last million years, so these kinds of events have occurred!! The question is, What fraction of them were catastrophic?

Protect yourself; Protect "The People" and Protect the Living Earth from Radioactive Sr-90, Cs-137, U-238 and all Pu-isotopes which are accumulating in the 450 operating nuclear reactors (that's about 440 lb. Pu-239/Reactor-year, and more than 100 lbs. Sr-90+Cs-137/Reactor-year for 1000 Megawatt nuclear reactors). That's a global total of 88,000 lbs Pu-239 and 10,000 lbs. Sr-90+Cs-137 being generated per year in 450 nuclear reactors that are on-line 2/3's of the time.

Those are extremely frightening amounts of radioactivity! Unless we find failsafe, Zero Release Technologies and Strategies before the Next Chernobyl Explodes!!! Only MIRACLES will save life on Planet Earth!

A chapter is given to the problems caused by the radioactive contamination of "The People" of Socorro, New Mexico; Iraq; Kuwait; Kosovo; etc. by the testing, burning, and use of "Depleted Uranium" weapons during 1972 thru 1999. A proposal has been sent to U.S. DOD Secretary Cohen that they use the pyrophoric, dense, non-radioactive element Hafnium to replace the radioactive "Depleted Uranium" in their penetrating weapons.

The development of a WIPP "Brecia Pipe" and "Natural Plutonium Reactors" on the Pecos and Rio Grande Rivers downstream from WIPP are considered.

Total Amounts of Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239 and "the HOTS" Released into the Global Biosphere, 1945-1998 AD

Introduction


Radioactivity is invisible; it is silent; it is tasteless and odorless; It Is Mutagenic; IT IS DEADLY!!! It invades us without our knowledge or consent, and it destroys us and our genetic archives from outside and from within. And to top that off, humans don't show its genetic effects for years or decades after exposure. Paranoid denial, deception, intimidation, and secrecy pervade nuclear bureaucracies; but the very nature of large-scale radioactive hazards requires that "The People" of a democracy must be fully-informed and enfranchised. That contradiction characterizes the relationships between nuclear governments and "The People" worldwide. When Chernobyl highlighted that contradiction in the Soviet Union, it ended that Soviet Union.

A quantification of the accumulating amounts of Cs-137,

Sr-90, Pu, etc. with the occasional month-long spikes of "the HOTS" after each criticality-event release (TMI, NTS, "C-40 trench", Chernobyl, etc.) allows us to specify what we have been through, where we are now, and Where our Futures will take us. This is assuming that no more large-scale releases of radioactivity into the biosphere occur.

While the entire spirit of these studies is to STOP the release of radioactivity into our global biosphere, not all of "the nuclear nations" are committed to that goal. In any case, nations that believe that they MUST conduct nuclear tests should think about conducting those tests more than 2000 ft. underground, depending on expected yield, in order to prevent venting into the atmosphere. Would the U.N. help such nations bear the additional costs of deep underground testing of nuclear weapons?

Both Pakistan and India have contaminated their own most important river systems (the lower Indus River and the entire Ganges River) with the fallout from their own atmospheric tests of nuclear bombs. We CANNOT continue to Foul Our Nest(s) with Radioactivity and expect our children to be Healthy and Survive!!!

In Figure 3 the total amounts of Pu released into the Earth's biosphere during 1945 to 1998 are shown in the same coordinates, scales and ranges as Fig. 4 has for Sr+Cs. 



 
 


 
 To determine the total amounts of Pu vaporized and released during atmospheric Pu detonations (Wv(Pu), 1945-1963), the equation

Y(kT)

Wv(Pu) = ----- (1 - )

25
 

was used; where W=weight (lbs.) Of Pu; Y = yield (in kTHE) due to Pu fissions; 25 is the kTHE yield of one lb. of Pu completely fissioned; and is "the fission efficiency" ( = W fissioned /W initial). The schedule used for is

-------------------------------------

| Date | 1945 | 1946 | 1948 | 1951-on |

| -----+------+------+------+---------| ,

| (%) | 5 | 10 | 40 | 85 |

-------------------------------------
 

and there are hard data to support the 5% value for the first 3 "tests" in 1945 and for = 85% for the "huge", pure U-bomb detonation in 1951. The 1946 and 1948 values are "reasonable interpolation" estimates. It is the use of = 85% since 1950 that had kept global Pu releases down before Chernobyl IV exploded. Figures 4 and 3 do not include the Pu, U, Sr or Cs left underground after "underground" detonations. Those releases of Pu, Sr, Cs and U into the ground will leak into the biosphere during the decades, centuries and millenia that follow.

Dr. John Gofman said (1981) that "virtually all the Pu" from atmospheric Pu bomb testing "through 1962 has now returned to earth. ... the global dispersion and fallout of ... Pu is 320,000 Ci." That's 11,453 lb. Pu from about 320 U.S. A-bombs, and that averages about 56 lbs. of Pu released per bomb! That's WAY TOO MUCH! It was more like 0.25 lb. Pu released per bomb before 1963.

The yield (Y) for each of the 74 NTS Pu detonations with trackable nuclear clouds are given in Miller (see credit for Figure 6). All of these Wv(Pu) values were calculated for each Pu bomb and added up for each test series at NTS; tripled (U.S. plus Soviet); and that global set of W's is plotted in Fig. 3. They (Ws, Wg & Wt) are the components of the vaporized Pu that were injected into the stratosphere (> 30,000 ft. for Y > 8 kT) and higher (>125,000 for 10 MTHE yields) to fall out over the centuries (Ws), into the lower atmosphere where most fallout to the surface biosphere occurred during the first year after detonation (Wg) and the fraction driven directly into the ground, the down-driven Pu in the explosion. The fractions used are

Ws = 0.75 Wv, Wg = 0.15 Wv and Wt = 10 Wv for atmospheric bursts.
 

There is a clear distinction between releases and fallout distributions of radioactivity from atmospheric detonations of

A-bombs, and from Chernobyl, etc. For A-bombs, ALL of the radioactive isotopes (Pu, U, Sr, Cs, I, HOTS, etc.) are Vaporized into a HOT gaseous state in the rising, long-lived 10,000,000 degree nuclear fireball that drives "the mushroom cloud" high into the stratosphere (30,000 to 150,000 ft.). From there, these radioactive gases and their radioactive oxide aerosols (PuO2, etc.) are distributed worldwide by jetstream and other winds for decades.

On the other hand, the Chernobyl explosions were characterized by temperatures < 2500C! So a few radioisotopes with boiling points much less than 2500C (e.g. Se, Br, Kr, Rb, I, Xe, & Cs) were vaporized, and large fractions were released 5 km. high into the surrounding atmosphere and distributed globally. The bold-type radioisotopes (Kr, I, Xe & Cs above) have half-lives longer than one week. Pu and U have boiling points >3000C, so they would be distributed with ejected solids and particulates in the immediate vicinity of the destroyed reactor (see the maps in the "Chernobyl" Chapter).

For the underground tests, the Pu vented from the assumed 61 detonations/yr. was calculated in the same way as for the amounts of Sr+Cs vented were, and those smoothed results are plotted in Fig. 4. Through 1985, only Lower Limits () are plotted.

Finally, we see the 1986 Chernobyl injections of Pu plus "TRU HOTS" into the nearby, then global, biosphere. Here Upper Limits (X) are added because they better represent the information available.

Even the present Upper Limits Wg(Pu) amounts (350 lbs.) are less than the mid-range W30(Sr+Cs) amounts (500 lbs.), and that means that Sr-90+Cs-137 clearly dominate Pu, U, etc. in the genetic insult impacts due to radioactivity throughout the biosphere. There are local exceptions. This Pu/Sr+Cs comparison makes it clear that the biological impacts of Chernobyl (ten+ years of observed global decimations of vertebrates led by amphibia) were dominated by first "the HOTS" (ß and TRU for the first month), then by Sr-90 and Cs-137 (ß decays) for the next 100 years, then by Pu-239 ('s) for the next 1,000,000 years, then by U for billions of years.

The main difference between Pu amounts and Sr+Cs amounts shown Figures 3 and 4 is that Sr+Cs will "decay away" within 300 yrs. while it will take our Pu burden more than 250,000 yrs. to decay away by the same amount.

While the only "HOTS" shown are for Chernobyl, each fission/criticality event has its own array of "short-lived" HOTS. Of particular interest is the enhancement of TRU's and "TRU HOTS" in thermonuclear events. Normally, the light "ß-HOTS" overwhelm the scarcer, heavy "-HOTS" unless there has been "packing" or "boosting" of a nuclear "device'; so that may not be the case for fission-triggered H-bombs, where "-HOTS" from TRU's may overwhelm the "ß-HOTS".

Finally, the future decay of Sr+Cs over the next few centuries matches the losses of Pu from the stratosphere and higher to the ever-increasing accumulations of Pu in the earth's surface, in the marine biosphere, and to the slower precipitation of Pu over the earth's poles.

The upshot of this identification of "the HOTS" and Sr+Cs as the main radioactive assailants in the decade of global amphibian decimations mandates that human families that survive in the long-term will not only be "Vegan"; but they will be taking large, regular doses of healthy Ca and K (and I near reactors and other chronic release sites), etc. to block Sr-90, Cs-137 (and I-131) from being picked-up in the body. More such information about healthy diets is available in "Diet for the Atomic Age" by Shannon, 1987. The amount of WIPPu is more than 10x the amount of Pu now in the Earth's biosphere.

In Figure 4, the data for Sr-90+Cs-137 from 1945 to 1963 were calculated from bomb yields (Y) given for 74 of the 100+ atmospheric "test" at the U.S. "Nevada Test Site" (NTS) given in Miller:

W30(Sr+Cs) = (0.045 + 0.045) Y(kT)/25


W30 is in pounds, each 0.045 represents the 4.5% of the Pu-239, (or U-235), fission daughters that are Sr-90 and Cs-137, and the 25 is the kT yield from the complete fissioning of one pound of U or Pu.

Then, the U.S. data were multiplied by 3 (the Soviets detonated 200+ nuclear bombs in the atmosphere before 1963) to approximate the total global release of Sr-90+Cs-137 during 1945 to 1963.

For the 1400+ "underground" detonations by the U.S. and the Soviets during 1963-1985, the average yield for the first 74 U.S. nuclear detonations was assumed, and it is further assumed that there were 61 detonations per year for each of those 23 years. Statistics on the 800+ U.S. "underground" detonations show that 1/3 of those detonations vented radioactivity so thoroughly that "they might as well have blown 'em up in the air!" and another 1/3 vented "slightly". For this study, it is assumed that 1/3 of the "underground" nuclear detonations vented 67% of their radioactive "HOTS", Sr, Cs, Pu, etc.; 1/3 vented 10%; and 1/3 vented nothing.

Then, in 1986 Chernobyl exploded, and "Upper" and "Lower Limits," as described earlier, are shown in Figure 4. The minor contributions of the French, Indian, Chinese, So. African and Pakistani tests are lost in the overwhelming releases by Chernobyl IV. As for where in the possible range (30 to 788 lbs. of Sr+Cs) does reality sit, only global measurements of Sr+Cs can tell. The abruptness and the genetic and geographic extents of the first onset of extraordinary amphibian decimations near Chernobyl during 1986-1987 require at least a 10x increase in C(Sr+Cs) (see Figure 5) for C<104 atoms (cc) initially to increase to C>105 (a 10x increase). Figure 5 shows that C>105 is high enough to cause genetic defects in species with genome sizes (G) in the range 1010<G<1011. All such land animal species are amphibia!
 

Page 192: "One should consider, for example, that the current worldwide disappearance of frogs includes remote areas with inaccessible high altitudes, which cannot be attributed to industrial chemical pollution alone. European biologists have revealed the significant role of low-level radiation in accounting for the loss of large sections of the German Black Forest, as well as other plant life.

In retrospect, it seems obvious that if low-level radiation can harm the human immune response, all other living beings would also be adversely affected. Certainly there has been considerable damage done in the past half century."

From The Enemy Within, 1997 by S. J. M. Gould.


As we are in the process of changing from the analysis of Pu -particle hits in a genome to Cs & Sr -particle hits in a genome, we need to reexamine my -hit assumptions to see if they still apply to the -hit situations.

With -hits there is little or no genetic repair since -particles completely disrupt all electrons, all atoms and all molecules within 4X10-8 cm (4 ngstroms)of the axis of the -track. Since a "DNA nucleotide pair" is about 20 in diameter and 1 thick, and it is one of a "stack" of hundreds, thousands, even millions of similar nucleotide pairs in each DNA gene. So it is impossible for an -particle to "hit" only one of a nucleotide pair without hitting adjacent nucleotide pairs AND doing significant damage to, or destruction of, the DNA "Backbone". So
 
 




an -hit disrupts a DNA gene so thoroughly that it is unlikely that the gene can be repaired, read or reproduced in any meaningful way. That is why DNA repair was not discussed for Pu -hits, but that is not the case for -particle hits in a genome.
 

The -particle has half of the charge (and almost 1/2,000 of the mass) of an -particle. Thus -particles experience many fewer interactions per unit path length, and -particles have average ranges that are about 1000X longer than -particles of equal energy. So -particle "hits" in a genome are about 1000X farther apart than -hits, and DNA repair is a reality for

-hits.

The effect of DNA repair is to increase the intracellular concentration, C (Sr+Cs), of -emitters required to yield a given t2 between -hits. I do not know how large a change in the C's DNA repair produces, but it cancels some of the need for t2>>"2X" times for cell survival. See the discussion on pp. 23 & 24 of "the book".

Chernobyl IV appears to have released more than 400 lb. (Sr+Cs) into the near, continental and global biosphere(s). The subsequent decrease of Sr+Cs shown since 1986 is due to their radioactive decays with "lifetimes" of 28 and 30 years respectively. Even for the Upper Limits (X) shown in Figure 4, Sr-90+Cs-137 amounts will return to their pre-Chernobyl levels in the biosphere around 2100 AD. (More in the chapter about "Chernobyl").

However veiled, this (Sr+Cs)-dominated result is a much brighter picture for the Earth's vertebrates than the Pu-dominated picture presented in "the book". The reason is that

Pu-239 takes almost 1000x longer to decay than Sr or Cs, and Sr+Cs will decay to below the genetic threshold for amphibian mutations, morbidities, etc. before 2100 AD. If the amphibian decimations were Pu-dominated, it would be almost 100,000 years before Pu decayed below the pre-Chernobyl levels. It will be much easier to survive one century of marginal genetic distress than to survive 1000 centuries of genetic distress.

The overwhelming contributions that Chernobyl has made to current biospheric radioactivity makes Sr-90 and Cs-137 major candidates for causing genetic damage to exposed life forms. The generalized form of the "Species Survival Equation" is:
 

1 1

C(I) = 6.7 x 10 ---------- - ---- .

20 or 1ß Ro Gxt2
 
 
 
 
 

C = the concentration of radioactive isotope (I),

I = Sr-90+Cs-137 (ß-emitters) or Pu-239 or U-238 (-emitters)

20 - "the -factor", = 1.0 for ß's,

= the isotope "decay time", = 1/2/0.69, and

Ro = the particle ( or ß) range.

...and when pro-nuclear people tell you that "The Species Survival Equation" and 'The Graph'(s) are wrong!", make them explain just what is "wrong", and make them prove it!
 

----------------------------------------------------------------

| I | Pu | U | Sr or Cs | So the |

----------------------------------------| |

| | 1 | 1 | 1('s) | |

| ------- | ------- | -- |

| | 20 ('s)| 20 ('s) | | Ro |

|---------------------------------------| |

| | | | term is decisive: |

| | 35,000 y| 4.6X109 | 40y or 44y | 7x106 (Pu), |

|---------------------------------------| |

| | | | | 9x1011(U) or |

| Ro |5x10-3 cm |5x10-3 cm | 1cm to 20cm | 420 to 2.2 (Sr+Cs) |

----------------------------------------------------------------

So each kind of criticality event will have its specific Pu/U/Sr/Cs ratio and (/ß) ratio for genetic insult. Mature U-Fuel in a large nuclear reactor will have >1 ton of Sr/Cs and <1500 lb Pu; and Sr/Cs and "the HOTS" will dominate the prompt biospheric insults and impacts from radioactive releases for centuries. Chernobyl was such a "normal" case. After centuries, Pu becomes the dominant, ever-increasing radioactive threat in the biosphere for the next million years.

The U.S. "Safety Tests" (1957) and the Russian "C-40" trench (the unintended 13.4 kT "criticality event" in 1958) put 30 lb. Pu and 500 lb. Pu Vapors high into the air along with min. and <1 oz. Sr/Cs plus 7 oz. HOTS, so these isolated Pu vaporizations were "contrived" to produce Pu/-dominated contamination of the near, surrounding and downwind/downstream biosphere.

There are thousands of Underground Reservoirs of Pu, U, Sr, Cs, etc. in thousands of glassified, collapsed nuclear bomb cavities worldwide. This enormous reservoir of underground radioactivity is slowly making its way to the surface biosphere, and lifeforms are moving toward these warm, wet, metals-rich, radioactive cavities. They will find each other long before the Pu becomes harmless.

Compare Figure 5 with Figure 2 (p.25 in "the book").

As shown by "the equation", "the graph" yields the low concentration range for Sr-90+Cs-137, 104 < C(Sr+Cs) < 106 nuclei/cc. That's 105x smaller than the C(Pu)values required to decimate global amphibian populations.

This large disparity shows that only events that are peculiarly Pu-dominated events will be dominated by Pu 's. The 13.4 kT "Pu trench" criticality explosion at "Chelyabinsk 40" in Russia could have been that; but in general, radioactive insults to living cells will be dominated by Sr-90, Cs-137 and "the HOTS" (with 1 month) for nearby and global populations.

Although C(Sr+Cs) << C(Pu) required to damage genomes terminally, the variations from species-to-species remain the same for any type radioactive insult. This point is examined in detail in the chapter about Chernobyl.

But with criticality events, it's the prompt exposure to the "short-half-life isotopes" that reach nearby public, farm produce and wildlife domains in the downwind track shortly after various criticality events.
 

The "Nuclear Cloud" reaches these domains in seconds to weeks (global).
 

=============================================

| Distance | Timescale() |

---------------------------------------------

| nearby, | 1.0 sec. |

| 10-100 mi., | 10min. |

| 100-1000 mi., | 1hr. |

| 1000-10000 mi., | 10hr. |

| 10,000-global, | 4 days |

==============================================

They dominate the fission products. So it may have been the short half-life isotopes that started the Amphibian decimations near Chernobyl, and immediately downwind; and the prolonged exposure to first the short- then the longer-lived fission and vaporization products over the longer periods of exposure to Pu, Sr, Cs, etc. that continue to maintain the global amphibian decimations.

Note that the general relationship between G, C(Sr/Cs) and "2X" remains the same (C1/Gx"2X") as for Pu, and the graph for (Sr/Cs) looks the same as that for Pu, but "the constant of proportionality has decreased for 2.4x1020 for Pu 's to

1.3x1015-to-286x1015 for Sr/Cs ß's. That C-range will be decreased proportionately from 109C(Pu)<1011 to 104<C(Sr+Cs)<106, as shown in the 2 graphs.

Thus, the 1000x shorter half-lives, and the 4000x greater range of the ß's overwhelm the "-factor" (20) and make Sr-90, Cs-137 and the multitudes of <1 yr., ß-emitter "fission daughters" (HOTS) MUCH MORE dangerous to faithful cell reproduction than similar concentrations of Pu would be. And the large, unique amphibian vulnerability to radioactive insult is as true for ß-insult as for -insult.

While these studies appear to compel the conclusion that intolerable radioactive insult to cell genomes is the cause of the observed decade of global amphibian decimations, only accurate measurements of Sr-90, Cs-137 and Pu concentrations in cells and in environments can establish which of these isotopes is "the villain of record." In spite of the natural (105x) advantage of Sr-90 and Cs-137 over Pu, Pu may show much higher biological and food chain concentrations than highly metabolized Sr-90 or Cs-137 do in amphibians and in other life forms.

The Sr-90 and Cs-137 wastes from U.S. nuclear weapons facilities that are scheduled for WIPP will be in special "Remote Handled (RH)" containers because they are too radioactive, too hot, too deadly* to be "Contact Handled (CH)" like the usual "transuranic (TRU)" wastes. About 8000 of these "RH" containers are scheduled for WIPP, which is not supposed to receive any "high level wastes" because of their ability to cause WIPP to become a diapiric, prompt, radioactive salt volcano! Will the DOE put all 8000 of those RH containers close together in WIPP? If we can't trust the DOE, ...? Those deadly "RH" canisters will return to the survace during the next 30 to 100 years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*These "RH" containers are every bit as hot thermally as "spent fuel rods" of the same age. The PR-dominated DOE nitwits think that changing their names from "high level wastes" to "RH wastes" makes it OK (legal) to Do STUPID THINGS at WIPP!!!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 


"The HOTS"


These HOTS are the short-lived, < 1 month, "Fission Daughters" (D) and "Transuranics" (TRU) that are so deadly for the first month after a reactor shutdown or a bomb detonation. The table that follows shows the differences between the light Ds and the heavy TRUs. The main differences are that only 7% of the light Ds have >1 year while 22% of the TRUs have > 1 year, and the Ds are primarily ß-emitters while TRUs usually emit 's. These two data sets have not been combined because I do not know the ratio of TRUs to daughters for reactors, A-bombs, H-bombs, etc.

These "HOTS" are the main fallout threat to the "downwinders" during the first week after a nuclear detonation. These "HOTS" are in the "radioactive rains" that fell out of the hundreds of nuclear clouds nationwide during the first week or two after a "test" at NTS or Novaya Zemlya, or an unexpected explosion in an on-line nuclear reactor, or in a wet "Pu waste trench" gone critical.

The regions near these radioactive sources are hardest hit by these "HOTS". Note that most of both of these classes of isotopes exhibit lifetimes less than 1 day: 77% of daughters and 53% of TRU's.
 
 



As in spent fuel rods, the "HOTS" in prompt fallout from Chernobyl, (see figure "H"), heated the nearby surroundings (winds, grounds, plants, waters, animals, and THERMOMETERS)!!!

A "HOTS"-contaminated early spring started on 26 April that year; and a long, warm spring was followed by a long "HOT" summer. "HOTS" fallout provided more heat than full sunlight within 50 ft. of Chernobyl IV during 26 thru 30 April, 1986.

In Figure "H" the fraction of "HOTS" remaining (%) after each "time" interval (sec, min, hr, day, week, month) is plotted for a 10 to 30 mph wind out to 1011 mi. As can be seen, more than 50% of "the HOTS" released remain beyond 10 mi. away, and more than 30% remains beyond 100 mi. away. Radioactive decays will remove the rest during the next month.

Recall that by far most of the "the HOTS" are ß-emitters that can thoroughly penetrate small, surface lifeforms with deadly radiations. This is true for all amphibian species, their "tadpoles" and their eggs; so if "the HOTS" were sprinkled on, around and under lifeforms by prompt fallout immediately downwind from criticality releases (bombs, reactors, waste trenches), amphibian decimations would be manifest in the following generation(s). All of this did occur at 



 
 Chernobyl. Under these circumstances of external irradiation, all small species (insects, mice, lilies, rabbits, beans and other flowering plants) within 1000 miles are as vulnerable as amphibia.

For the first hour after Chernobyl exploded, "the HOTS" radioactivity within 30 miles W and WNW of Chernobyl was 50x to 1000x higher than levels measured a few days later; and during that first week, all of central-to-eastern Europe and EurAsia suffered "HOTS" radioactivity levels that were 10x-to-90x higher than the Cs-137 levels measured weeks-to-years later by the Soviets.

As shown in the "HOTS" Tables, "the HOTS" are primarily the short lifetime ß -emitters that occur as the highly unstable, neutron-rich "Fission Daughters" that cascade toward ever-higher atomic numbers:

n ß- + (both released) + p+ (remains in new nucleus).

n is a nuclear neutron that decays into a

p+, nuclear proton, via the release of a

ß-, particle (a negative electron) plus a

, an anti-neutrino.
 

Each ß- decay increases the number of nuclear protons by one (a higher atomic number) while the nuclear mass remains about the same. Thus, most "fission daughters" cascade rapidly to ever-higher atomic numbers until they reach long-lived states (Kr-85, Ru-87, Sr-85, Sr-89, Sr-90, I-131, Cs-134, Cs-135, Cs-136 & Cs-137), or stable states (Kr-84, Kr-86, Ru-85, Sr-84, Sr-86, Sr-88, Xe-132, Xe-134, Xe-136, Cs-133, etc.) where they accumulate.

Figure 6 is the map of the U.S. that shows in black that radioactive releases from the first 50 U.S. nuclear reactors (including those at LANL, INEL and Hanford) that have caused elevated breast cancer death rates (26 to 32 deaths per 100,000 women) in countries within 100 mi. of each nuclear reactor. Counties farther than 100 mi. away showed 22 breast cancer deaths per 100,000 women. These elevated cancer death rates near nuclear reactors are due primarily to gaseous "HOTS" (I-131, Kr-85, Cs-137, etc.) that are released on a regular basis from all operating nuclear reactors.

Figure 7 shows where radioactive clouds traveled across the U.S. from the 100 atmospheric A-bombs detonated at NTS during the weeks following each detonation. Rains that fell from or thru these "HOTS" clouds caused "hotspots" all across the U.S. Keep in mind that with atmospheric A-bomb and H-bomb detonations that the entire radioactive mass (Pu, U, all TRU's and all "Fission Daughters") is vaporized and elevated to a temperature above one million degrees Centigrade. Most of that hot, radioactive ball rises high into the atmosphere and is carried downwind across the United States. Figure "H" shows what fraction of "the HOTS" decays away during each cloud's week-long trip across the U.S.

Figures 6 and 7 show the main regions of radioactive contamination in the United States where the predictable Amphibian decimations and human birth defects, cancers, etc. are most abundant, conspicuous and harmful. 


 
 
 


 
 
 Then "the HOTS" clouds from Chernobyl made between one and three trips west-to-east around the Northern Hemisphere during the first month after 26 April, 1986 and increased radioactive contaminations all over the world, specially in regions north of the Mediterranean Sea and the Golfo de Mexico, i.e. >30N.
 


Chernobyl, 51 23 N; 30 30 E


On 26 Apr. 1986, Chernobyl IV exploded 40% of its core into the air, had a significant meltdown; and the shattered graphite core burned for ten days. During that burn time an additional 10% release of Pu, Sr-90, Cs-137 (4 x 107 Ci.), "the HOTS"

(>8 x 108 Ci.) were released and first spread nearby then farther downwind across Byelorussia, northern Ukraine, Russia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and north, west, south and east across central and eastern Europe, then Asia (see Figure H). There, as the core continued to melt, burn and fume; the wind shifted and carried the deadly plume west, east and south across Poland, Hungary, Germany, Yugoslavia and to France and Italy 1400 mi. away. See the Maps (Figures 8, 9 & 10) and The Table of Anecdotal Chernobyl Radioactive Contamination.

Finally the fire was smothered, and hundreds of thousands of people who lived just northwest of Chernobyl were evacuated, never to return. By the end of May, "the HOTS" had decayed to 1/50 of their initial radioactivity, and the amounts of radioactivity released are still being argued. The NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency) continues to minimize the amounts of radioactivity released by Chernobyl (they excluded >2000 Pbq* of Kr-85, a 100% release gas) and the numbers of genetic effects (cancers, manifest mutations, loss of immune response, decrease in "Life Espectancy", etc.) in Humans by selective reporting! It's 1999, and on the internet the NEA is still quoting Ukraine, Byelarus and Russian cancer, etc. data from sources published BEFORE 1990 ONLY!!! Then, based on 1/6 of the available data, they conclude:
 

"Many predictions of the future impact of the accident on the health of populations have been made, all of which, apart from thyroid disease, indicate that the overall effect will be small compared with the natural incidence and therefore not expected to be discernible (An88, Be87, Hu87, Mo87, De87, Be87)." p. 4 of 11, pages on "Chernobyl" on the internet.
 

These are "lies by omission"!!! They didn't report the 10x to 100x increases in cancer rates reported during 1990 thru 1998!!!

What is unbelievable is that the NEA expects us to believe that that statement has anything to do with current reality. Where are the NEA references to the more recent data sources that I have been quoting? Look up "http://www.nea.fr/html/rp/chernobyl/c05.html, p. 4 of 11. 
 
 


 
 


 
 


 
 


 
 Table of Annecdotal Contamination from "Chernobyl," 1993 by Alla Y.

===========================================================================================================|

Place Date Time || Radioactive | Isotope | µCi | Ci/km2 | R/hr | Rem |

|| Distance km | | per | | | |

|| from | | person | | | |

|| Chernobyl IV | | | | | |

====================||==================+============+=============+============+============+=============|

Chernobyl ||

26 April 1986 1:24 || 0 - 3 | Cs-137 |1 - 5 | 4 - 400 | | |

By 1991 || 0 - 100 WN | Sr-90 | | 1 - 3+ | | |

to 1993 || 0 - 40 WN | Pu-239 | | 0.1 - 1 | | |

|| | Pu-240 | | | | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

Mirni 26 April 1988 || | | | | | |

Novaye Sharnye || "Nearby | | | | | |

Motyli || | | 9 to 17 | >200 | | |

Dolgiy Less || Villages" | | | | | |

Omelnjci || | | | | | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

Nozdrishchye || " | | | 160 | | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

Pripyat 26-29 April || 9 km SE | Sr-90 | >400 | >100 | >0.5, | |

|| | Cs-137 | | |29 April | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

Hojruci, BY. || 70 N | Sr-90 | 10 | 15 | | |

|| | Cs-137 | | | | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

Narodichi, UK || | | 1-5(30 | | 3.0 | |

27 April and || 100 W | |people) | | | |

28 April || | Cs-137 |>400 (400 | | | |

|| | | adults) | 10-20 | 0.6 | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

Gomel, BY. || 150 N | Cs-137 | | 14 | | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+ >400 |

Mogilev, BY. || 300 N | Cs-137 | | 1 | | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

Plavsk (Tula region)|| ? | Cs-137 | | 5-15 | | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

UKRAINE || | "Mostly | 160,000 | | 17% | >100 |

1.5x106 people || | I-131" | children | | 62% | 1-5 |

contaminated || | | 7 yrs old | | 48% | 30 |

60% sick || | | | | 87% adults | (thyroid) |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

BYELORUSSIA || "Lost 1/5 of citizens to Chernobyl" | <400 | | |

|| "Lost 1/4 of citizens to World War II" | | | |

--------------------||------------------+------------+-------------+------------+------------+-------------|

Denmark, Norway, || 1000 N | | | | | |

Sweden, England, || to | | | 1.0 to 1.5 | | |

Finland || 2000 E | | | | | |

===========================================================================================================|

It is clear, however, from Figures H, 8 & 9 that the people, the lands, livestock, and wildlife to the north and west within 400 km of Chernobyl got enormous doses of fallout from "the HOTS" radioactivity during 26 April 1986 when 75% of "the HOTS" decayed away. This is why major amphibian and other small animal and plant decimations would begin nearby that spring.

The Soviets announced that "a 3% to 5% release of the core" (Pu, U & Sr), and "the release of "40 million Curies (Ci.) of Cs-137, 50 million Ci of 'gases' and 50 million Ci of 'particulates.'" The release of more than 140 million Ci. is unprecedented on Earth, and the volatile elements and gaseous releases far-exceed a 3-5% release. It was closer to a 75% to 100% release of radioactive Cs, I, Kr and Xe!

European and U.S. experts estimated that about 1000 lbs. of Pu had accumulated in the reactor core, and they agreed that the initial explosion(s) had sent about 40% of the volatiles in the reactor core high into the north- and west-bound air (that's about 10x to 30x the Soviet's 3-5%). They determined further that an additional 10% of the reactor core was released during the following ten days of fire and fuming.

The western experts estimated that a total of 50% of the Chernobyl IV reactor core volatiles were released into the environment. That estimate is compatible with the total release of > 100 million Ci of radioactivity into the environment. That would also involve the release of about 50 to 500 lbs. of Pu. These large releases are consistent with the 40 million Ci of Cs-137. 40 million Ci of Cs-137 mandates 700 lbs. of Cs-137 released (the NEA estimates <40 lb. Cs-137 released), and that would be associated with the simultaneous release of about 40 lbs. of non-volatile Sr-90.

More than 22 lbs. of Pu-239 plus Pu-240 was measured on the ground within 300 km of Chernobyl "during the early 1990's" (1990-1993). That's >2x the NEA estimate of Pu-239+240 releases, and the vast majority of the Sr-90 release also remained within 300 km of Chernobyl.

My primary data sources are the book "Chernobyl", 1993 University of Nebraska Press, by Alla Yaroshinskaya; the April 1996 article in Scientific American by Yuri M. Shcherbak, and "The Enemy Within," 1997 by Jay M. Gould, et al. Alla Y's sources for the "official maps" are given at the bottom of Figure 10. The three maps and The Anecdotal Data are the specific quantitative data used in the following Analyses and Results.

Figure 8 is a continental-scale map (4000 km. EW x 2000 km. NS) of the "Cs-137 contamination measured in central and eastern Europe" and northern and western Asia between 40N and 58N in the "early 1990's".

All vertebrate species in the black, red and orange areas of Figures 8 and 9 are threatened with copious mutations, morbidities, cancers, freaks, mortalities and extinctions during the last and coming decade, generations and centuries. Nearly all small plants and animals in the black, red and orange areas have died since Chernobyl, and the few survivors are dying. Chernobyl releases are responsible for the vast majority of the Cs-137 contaminations shown. The two conspicuous exception near the northeast (right) edge of the map is due to the "C-40 13.4 kT Pu Trench Criticality Detonation" in 1958. The "C-40" detonation yield was nearly equal to the "Trinity" yield, so it shows that the Chernobyl releases of Cs-137 exceeded the limited Cs-137 releases from an average A-bomb by many hundreds to thousands of times. The spotty Cs-137 Hotspots along a 1500 km. east downwind band in Russia are due to rains from the radioactive clouds in the highlands.

The contamination of the yellow areas shown exhibited surface radioactivity of 0.1 to 1.0 Ci(Cs-137)/km². These levels of radioactivity would be a threat to amphibia with average genome sizes and larger (G 4x109 nprs.), all Cartilaginous fish (skates, rays, sharks), Mammals and some of the most sensitive flowering plants (lily), insects, mollusks, top Bony Fish and top Reptiles. Only amphibian species would manifest increased mutations, cancers, morbidities, mortalities and extinctions beyond 10,000 km. downwind (North America, Western Europe and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere) during 1986-87. Overall, it is clear that unprecedented, enormous quantities of radioactivity were deposited throughout Europe, and the genetic effects will be harming the millions of contaminated people for the next 100 years.

It takes about two years for atmospheric radioactivity to cross the equatorial barrier into the southern hemisphere, so in 1988 the amphibian decimations due to Chernobyl's huge radioactive releases became truly global. It will be 100 years plus before the global Cs-137 and Sr-90 radioactive contaminations return to pre-Chernobyl levels, PROVIDED no more Chernobyls recontaminate the Earth in the meantime.

Chernobyl's Cs-137 and Kr-85 releases threaten Human Survival on a global scale; one or two more Chernobyls before 2015 AD would remove all doubt about Human Extinction on a global scale.

A closeup of the Cs-137 contamination of the regions within 600 km. of Chernobyl is shown in Figure 9. These are the detailed, quantitative data on the radioactive contamination

(0.1 to 1.0, 1.0 to 15, 15 to 40, and 40 to 400 Ci (Cs-137)/km²) of more than 100 million people in Byelorus, the Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Siberia.

All living families that have individual genome sizes G=109 and larger (G=3x109 for humans) that remain in the red, black and nearby orange regions of Figure 9 and live on local water and on local farm products and livestock will die-out during the 100 years (5 generations of Humans and 100 generations of frogs) following the Chernobyl explosions in 1986. This remains true, even it these radioactive products are shipped to distant populations. People in the more remote orange regions (more than 100 km from red regions) can survive with difficulty, but most amphibia won't. People in the yellow and green regions will exhibit excess cancers, suppressed immune response & manifest mutations; but only the next 30 to 100 years will clarify how well all humans survive global radioactive contamination and exposures of 0.01 to 1.0 Ci/km2 throughout our lifetimes.

It is not too late to move out of the highly-contaminated BLACK, RED and orange regions (>7 Ci/km2) shown in Figures 8 and 9.

Don't forget that there are hotspots, but it's the "coldspots" that provide opportunities for survival. Only radiation detection instruments can tell you where these "coldspots" are in your local region(s).

If the governments of those most-contaminated lands will give the UN honest data on genetic problems, cancers, morbidities, mortalities and case exposure histories over the last 13 years and over the next 9 to 30 years, the world would know better how to respond to radioactive contamination in general, and to subsequent Chernobyls. The NEA reports present only those cancers that had been reported before 1987-1988, when >90% of all cancers take 5 years and longer to be manifest. Reports published since 1990 show 10x to 100x increases in cancer rates within 400 km of Chernobyl.

In Figure 10 we see that much lower levels of Chernobyl's Sr-90 and Pu (239 and 240) were released and distributed over a much smaller local area (d 100km.) than the global spread of Chernobyl's Cs-137, I-131, Kr-85, Xe-131, etc. These differences appear to be due to differences in boiling points: The high boiling isotopes (B.P.>1000C) were deposited nearby with "the particulates" (see Figure H): 



 These Sr, Pu and U contaminations are the near-plant distributions that we would expect from Chernobyl-like releases of "particulate" radioactivity. Again, the NEA heaps discredit on itself by excluding Kr-85 (11 yrs. And B.P. =-152C) from its 1995 "estimate of radioactive releases (from) Chernobyl..."

When these radioactive releases result from bomb detonations at NTS, STS, KSTS, or NZTS, we would expect all elements to be distributed about the same due to the high temperatures (>106 C) and complete vaporizations of all elements; then their elevations and "aerosolizations" high into atmosphere (h 30,000 ft.) and subsequent fallouts; rainstorm scourings, etc. in their global downwind plumes.

The final component of the primary Chernobyl data set is the Table of Anecdotal Radioactive Contaminations from Chernobyl gleaned from Alla Y's "Chernobyl". As can be seen, there is a large amount of quantitative data, and four different measures of contamination by 5 radioisotopes (Cs-137, Sr-90, I-131, Pu-239 and -240); the radioactive "noble gases" were excluded from all Soviet and other early studies.

These are the quantative foundations for the analysis of the local, continental and global impacts of the radioactive releases from Chernobyl during late April and early May 1986 that are presented in the next chapter.

Throughout the region shown in Figure 10, Cs-137 radioactivity is clearly greater than all Pu+Sr radioactivity, and that will remain true for more than 100 years.

U-238 Releases from Chernobyl


A 3% to 5% release of the nuclear core of Chernobyl would also involve three tons of U-238 released into the "nearby" environment (r<50 km). That's about one Curie (1.2 Ci comes from 3.0 Tons of U-238!). A circle with a radius of 50 km has an area of about 7900 km2, and 1.2 Ci ÷7900 km2=1.52x10-4 Ci(U-238)/km2 and 0.34 kg/km2 (0.76 lb/km2). As Figure 11 (in the next chapter) shows, 10-4 Ci/km2 is the lowest possible threshhold of predictable, manifest genetic effects in vertebrates (primarily amphibia), but these Curie levels are significant only in the long term. "All" of the Chernobyl's Sr, Cs, Pu, and other isotopes will have decayed away during the next 750,000 years.

Note that all of the "official" measurements of radioactive contamination taken during April and May, 1986, (i.e. the early anecdotal observations reported by Alla Y.) would have been dominated by "the HOTS." The levels of Cs-137 contamination shown on the "early 90's" maps (figures 8 and 9) multiplied by 100x produce proper maps for "the HOTS" contamination levels WNW to N of Chernobyl (Europe and Asia) throughout late April, 1986, out to 100 to 2,000 km. By July, 1986 only 2% of the 26 April radioactivity was left, and by the "early 90's" the levels of radioactive contamination had decayed to 1% (1/100) of the original levels of radioactivity. Global Cs(-134, -135 and -137) and Kr-85 radioactivity are a major component of that 1%.

So once-again, the determinations herein of harm to lifeforms are known to be conservative underestimates.

For example, the NEA's omission of Kr-85 involves an 11 year half-life gas that would exhibit a 100% release of Chernobyl's "core inventory," which would involve 108 Ci of Kr-85 released into the environment. The NEA NEVER discuses the impacts of 108 Ci (Kr-85) over its 11 year half-life on the lungs of global populations!!!
 

I wonder why?
 

Never before had 50 to 500 lbs. of Pu, or >300 lbs. of

Sr-90, or >600 lbs. of Cs-137, or >3000 lbs. of "the HOTS" been released into the Earth environment. Could such a huge release, falling-out on large, nearby Chernobyl and Pripyat populations within 20 minutes, possibly go unnoticed? No!!! After a few days (90% of "the HOTS" had already decayed and irradiated everyone within 1000km "downwind"), the Soviets evacuated everyone from the areas of highest radioactivity, and they evacuated "all" babies and children within 100 km. (which included the city of Kiyev with 2,000,000 people). Nonetheless, many prompt miscarriages, premature deaths and mutations occurred in the most exposed, nearby populations; especially among exposed fetuses; but these "incidents" are not included in the "Prompt Health Effects" by the Soviets or by the NEA. The evacuated populations were protected from additional exposure to the huge quantities of radioactive isotopes with lifetimes longer than a week ( that includes all U, Pu, Sr-90, Cs-137, Cs-134, Kr-85, etc. and >15% of "the HOTS"). The remaining populations enjoy no such protection. And recall that "the (-emiting) HOTS" can irradiate lifeforms from the outside and irradiate the entire bodies of creatures the size of a chicken and smaller.

The regions west, north and northwest of Chernobyl is a wet, marshy, wooded amphibian heaven that goes on for more than

100 mi. Figure H shows an estimate of the radioactivity

(% "HOTS") that was carried downwind (to the north or northwest) during and after the first explosive release of radioactivity. The fraction that reaches the ground in the first 100 mi. is also shown, along with the names of Soviet villages, towns and cities along the downwind plume.

The fallout within 0.2 mi. (>1000 ft.) of the reactor (1 to 1390 Watts/m²) was so hot that a "spring thaw" arrived on 26 April (very early for 52N Latitude); within 4 mi. "the HOTS" fallout was deadly to small animals, (especially the amphibia) and to leaves (including "needles") and highly mutagenic; and the region up to 1000 mi. was highly mutagenic to all species, but still deadly to some of the high G amphibian species.

By the time that a month was up, the spread of that first radioactive cloud was global, and Cs-137 and Kr-85 became the major contributors remaining in the global Chernobyl cloud and in its continuing deadly fallout.
 


The Plutonium Releases


As shown in Figure 10, the featureless Pu-239+240 patch on the Sr-90 map provided by Alla Y. involves more than 6 lbs. Pu-239+240 on the ground within 50 km West, Northwest and North of Chernobyl during 1990-1993. That does not include whatever Pu was on the ground, but with 0.1 Ci/km2 contamination levels. Pu contamination probably falls off as 1/r2, and there would be less Pu outside of the hatched area. This is all consistent with the idea that the Pu (and the Sr?) Was associated with the "particulates" released from Chernobyl.

"Particulates" bring up an interesting question: What happened to the biggest "particulates"?, the fragments of the 2000 Ton Steel top of "the Reactor Vessel" that was blown off by the first explosion that started the global Chernobyl disaster. Those huge "fragments" would include the hurtling, radioactive "Chernobyl-Bombs" that came from the upper half of the exploded reactor core. Volcanic explosions hurl "lava-bombs" more than 80 km, so those radioactive Chernobyl-Bombs could be anywhere in the region.

In "Ten Years of the Chornobyl Era" (April, 1996 Scientific American) by Yuri Shcherbak we find
 

"Sediments of the Pripyat (River) adjacent to Chornobyl contain an estimated 10,000 curies of strontium 90; 12,000 curies of cesium 137 and 2,000 curies of plutonium."
 

Then his overview was

"Chornobyl was not simply another disaster of the sort that humankind has experienced throughout history, like a fire or an earthquake or a flood. It is a global environmental event...Chornobyl demonstrates the ever growing threat of technology run amok."
 

Ambasador Dr. Shcherkak's article is well worth reading for a perceptive view from a citizen-activist.

2,000 Ci Pu-239 is 48.5 lbs. Pu. So we can account for more than 50 lbs. of Pu released from Chernobyl in the silts of the adjacent Pripyat River and on the ground nearby. How much more has been buried or has been scoured downstream into the Dnieper River and the Kiev Reservoir is not clear, but I expect that more than 100 lbs. Pu were released into the environment around Chernobyl.

Our old friend, the NEA, accepts the initial Soviet estimates that about 3.5% of Pu inventory was released.8 That amounts to about 20 lbs. of Pu released, according to the NEA. Once again, they're a factor of 3-to-6 too low!

While humans were evacuated from, and crops and livestock destroyed in, the most contaminated areas for a short time, the wildlife remained; and they have endured as much radioactive exposure as any Earth population has ever endured. German scientists realized this and conducted an ongoing study of wildlife populations around Chernobyl. They observed that "all small animals near Chernobyl had died", and that extraordinary and uniquely amphibian decimations, and "lots of mutations", had occured. So "our nuclear canaries" are in mortal danger of extinction. As we have learned, huge amphibian genomes (G>1010) combine with high

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* But the NEA adopts a Cs-137 release that is about 1/10 of the initial Soviet estimates of Cs-137 releases.

concentrations (C) of radioactive isotopes ("the HOTS", Sr-90, Kr-85 and Cs-137, Cs-134, etc.) to wreak havoc with amphibian health, safety and survival. With C(Sr+Cs)>10-4 C(Pu) in cells, Sr-90+Cs-137 ß's will dominate Pu 's in genetic insults to exposed cells. For Chernobyl, the amounts of Cs released (700 lbs.) are comparable with or greater than the amounts of Pu released (<500 lbs.), so global Cs insults are overwhelming Pu insults in Chernobyl-contaminated lifeforms. Only sensitive measurements of C(Cs)104 atoms/cc to 106 atoms/cc and of C(Pu)109 atoms/cc to 1011 atoms/cc in amphibia, etc. (and in other vertebrates, plants and soils, muds and waters throughout the contaminated areas and in uncontaminated "control" areas) will establish which radioactive isotope(s) actually caused the global amphibian decimations.

Traditional observers of amphibia can determine if the least impacted amphibia species are the small salamanders with the smallest amphibian genomes; and the extinct, and almost extinct, species are those with the largest genomes. These comparisons are best when all of the amphibia studied live in the same physical habitats, "all else being the same."

Information about C(I) µCi "body levels", Ci/km2 surface contamination, etc. would help define the radioactive environments for the contaminated species.

Thus we see the mechanism(s), the location(s) and the timing(s) for the abrupt onset(s) of the last decade of global amphibian decimations at Chernobyl during 1987-88 across G = 1011 to G4x109, (25x), and for the continuing maintainance of those initial amphibian decimations by Cs through 2075 AD, see

Figure 3. By that time, most amphibian species in the northern latitudes (>20N) will be extinct, and we will see what other species of top carnivores become extinct during the first century following the catastrophic Chernobyl releases in 1986. And what new species will originate in and survive in this epoch of unique and copious radioactive contamination and high mutation rates.

The final determination for the reality of a plague is morbidity and mortality figures for the exposed populations. Gould (The Enemy Within) reports "a continuing decrease in Russian life expectancy." It was 68 years before Chernobyl, but it has decreased to less than 50 years since 1996.

That is the chilling radioactive reality that is ending the 20th century: The beginning of the Chernobyl-induced Russian Mass Extinctions of the 20th and the 21st centuries. Another Chernobyl before 2015, and the Russian, Byelorus and Ukraine tragedy will become global like the radioactive amphibian mass extinctions that have plagued us since Chernobyl exploded in 1986!

So in addition to the Vegan lifestyle, precluding the main radioisotopes Sr+Cs from our bodies with docile Ca and K overdoses, and migrating to the Southern Hemisphere, become part of any human survival strategy. Check with nutrition experts for doses and with travel agents.

Chernobyl IV, our monument to untested, large-scale nuclear technology blown apart in accordance with many ancient and modern warnings: "NEVER FORGET MURPHY III!" This deadly lesson clinched U.S. and W. European anti-nuke tendencies and branded the generations that experienced it. France, Russia, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and China remain the conspicuous exceptions with their national commitments to nuclear power.

So there it is again, a clear sequence of well-publicized, global events (Chernobyl explodes, then the Amphibian purge, then the drastic decrease in Russian "life expectancy"). The onset of that Amphibian purge was in the wetlands northwest of Chernobyl starting 26 April, 1986. By 1987, it was clearly manifest there (second generation of highly-irradiated, inbreeding populations), and by 1988 it had become an enduring global phenomenon concentrated in the northern hemisphere where it has rained the most and downstream from there. Then the early 1990's witnessed the human thyroid cancers, leukemias, fatigue, and deaths that characterize immune suppression symptoms.

AND NOBODY has even thought to suggest publicly that there could be a simple radioactive cause and genetic effects relationship between these two events? In 1999 a member of the Russian Duma (Parliament) charged Yeltsin with "4 million Russian deaths that have not been accounted for."
 

Fat Chance!!!

Analyses, Results and Error Bars

The data for Chernobyl's Radioactive Releases are presented as functions of distance from Chernobyl IV in Figures 11, 11a and 11b.

The observed surface contamination, Ci(Cs-137)/km², and thyroid exposures to I-131 (in Rem) show simple straight line fits (on the log-log graphs in Figures 11) with 1/r and 1/r1.2 decreases with distance from the reactor out to 2000 km.

Global extrapolations of these two straight lines (on log-log plots) out to 28,000 km (a circle around the Earth at 50 N latitude) define a range of predicted Ci(Cs-137)/km² and

Rem(I-131) values in a downwind band across Asia (up to 10,000 km. east); Hawaii, Alaska, Canada, the rest of the U.S. (10,000 to 16,000 km. east), the N. Atlantic, N. Africa and W. Europe (20,000 to 28,000 km. east) and back to Chernobyl's longitude (30 E) after a 2 week to 2 month trip around the world. With an 8 day "decay time", I-131 will have decayed to 1/8 to 1/32 of its original Rem-levels by the end of the first round trip, in addition to the expected 1/r falloff of I-131 with distance.

Cs-137, with a 30 year "decay time" will decay to those I-131 levels in 50 to 230 years.

Another point to keep in mind, while thinking about the distributions of Cs and I in the downwind atmosphere, is that Cs and I make very dense gases and aerosols. A Cs and I atmosphere would have a "scale height" of 500 m. while our much lighter N2 and O2 atmosphere has a "scale height" of 5000 m. Although Cs and I were sent 5000 meters high into the atmosphere by the initial explosion(s) and subsequent fire, their very high densities would tend to keep Cs and I in the lower reaches of the downwind plume.

The extrapolation of Cs-137 surface contamination,

Ci(Cs-137)/km², to the U.S. and Canada (10,000 to 17,000 km downwind) leads to between 0.1 and 0.2 Ci(Cs-137)/km² for the U.S. and Canada. By the same token, we anticipate 0.001 to 0.01 Rem(I-131) in U.S. and Canada thyroids during 26 April - 26 May, 1986. Nuclear "experts" stated "This does not constitute a serious radioactive threat" to N. American thyroids. That is, however, clearly not the case for Cs-137 at any time,nor is it the case for I-131 during 26 April to 26 May, 1986.

If we again use the data within 2000 km. of Chernobyl, we would conclude that thyroid exposure (Rem) is proportional to individual radioactive body burdens (µCi) and to surface contamination (Ci/km²). For human individual µCi(Cs-137) and for Ci(Cs-137)/km² surface contaminations, we get 0.1 Ci(Cs-137)0.2 in the U.S. and Canada. That's 10-7 to 2x10-7 Ci(Cs-137), that's 0.1 to 0.2 µCi per person, and that's 3.5x1012 Cs-137 atoms/person. For a 100 lb. person, 45.4 kg. (small adult or large child), that would correspond to an average concentration of Cs-137 of 1.54x108 > C(Cs-137) > 7.7x107 (Cs-137 atoms/cc). Note that C(Cs-137) would be 1/2 of the above values for a 200 lb. person.

Before we use these numbers, let us discuss the error bars for this calculation: Nothing realistic is going to increase this average estimate significantly, except clumping and "hotspots" from rains, etc., and various other effects would tend to decrease it by a factor of 3 to 90 in the U.S. and Canada. So the above range for average C(Cs-137) is an upper limit.

If 40 million Ci(Cs-137), the initial Soviet estimate, were spread uniformly over the Northern Hemisphere, the average global surface contamination in the Northern Hemisphere (N) would be 0.03 Ci(Cs-137)/km². That is more than enough to exterminate high-G amphibian species worldwide and to produce the usual, enduring potpourri of genetic problems for species with G3x109 (like humans, frogs, sharks, etc.) throughout the Northern Hemisphere 



 
 (0<<70 N). If we account for hot and cold zones, the expected range for

N (0.025 n0.1 Ci(Cs-137)/km2) is shown as a set of horizontal lines near the bottom of Figure 11. This range for N occupies the upper third of the range for the "Extrapolated" values derived from the observed 1/r decrease in downwind Cs-137 contamination within 2000 km of Chernobyl.

This "fit" is "necessary," but not "sufficient" for anything but encouragement. It does provide observational support for the validity of the 40x106 Ci(Cs-137) release estimate. It is also satisfying that these two "Upper Limit" estimates agree so well.

This range for N, Ci/km2(Cs-137), can be converted to average concentrations, C(Cs-137) atoms/cc, of Cs-137 in 100 pound individuals. This conversion yields a range of expected concentrations (C(Cs-137) atoms/cc in human cells) worldwide. This range is:

2.5x10-5C(Cs-137)106 atoms/cc.


This range is the error bars on the average value at 7.78x105 Cs-137 atoms/cc in Humans.

There is a third, independent way to estimate the concentration(s) of Cs-137 in human cells. This method is biological via "the Species Survival Equation" for Cs-137 shown in Figure 5. Figure 11a is an expanded, enriched version of Figure 5. The biological observations are that many amphibian species are suffering excessive mutations, morbidities and extinctions since 1988 worldwide; frogs and humans (G3x109) are showing mutations, cancers and some deaths globally (no species extinctions of frogs or mammals noted); and the regions of highest radioactive contamination (within 1000 km of Chernobyl) are exhibiting dramatic reductions in human life expectancies from 68 years (1980-1985) to 42 years since 1996.

The question is: Is there a specific global concentration of Chernobyl's Cs-137 that can explain the above decimations of amphibia and humans that would threaten Human Survival at significantly higher regional concentrations around Chernobyl?

The answer to that question is YES: The blue band between Cs-137 concentrations of 5x105C(Cs-137)106 (atoms/cc), indicated and labeled "Biol." in Figure 11a, would produce serious genetic health and survival problems for species with G>1010 (A, B & a) and marginal health problems for other species with 3x109G8x108 (base pairs), depending on C(Cs-137) variations from organ-to-organ,* (C), and higher Cs-137 concentrations, C(Cs-137)5x106 (atoms/cc) would cause Humans and mammals to exhibit the same serious health and extinction problems that the highest-G amphibia have exhibited globally since Chernobyl.

Thus, given "The Graph" for Cs-137, a determination of Chernobyl C(Cs-137) values from observed global and regional Biological effects yields global C(Cs-137) values in the range of 5x105C(Cs-137)106 (atoms/cc).

This biologically-determined range for C(Cs-137) occupies the upper half of the range determined for C(Cs-137) from extrapolating observations for Cs-137 contaminations near Chernobyl and from average n-values shown in Figure 11. Thus, these three "independent" determinations of C(Cs-137) yield agreements that would be very difficult to explain in other ways.
 

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* Note the large, dark spots () at the four values of

C(Cs-137) for "2X"=1, 1/10, 1/100, and 1/1000 years that represent the Cs-137 concentrations in various organs within one vertebrate specimen.

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The "Approximate Concentrations" of Pu-239 and U-238 that would be required to produce the observed biological effects are presented at the bottom of Figure 11a for comparison. This comparison shows that it is much more likely that the global decimations of amphibia, etc. are due to Cs-137 rather than any Pu or U isotope!

Figure 11b shows Figure 11 and 11a combined to give a graphic, color representation of the above discussion. Note that the C-values are on the vertical coordinate on the right side of Figure 11b. Remember, all of these C-values are Upper Limits!!

If we look at the range of C(Cs-137) upper limits given in Figure 11b, we see that the range calculated for C(Cs-137) in North Americans from radioactive releases from Chernobyl lie on the far right side of the figure. Even reducing C to Co/100 106 doesn't change the prediction that most vertebrates in the Northern Hemisphere, especially amphibia, are in danger of suffering serious genetic insult, organ disfunction, cancers and decimations during the generations that follow(ed) Chernobyl.

Amphibia have been exhibiting all of these symptoms worldwide since Chernobyl exploded. The expected one or two orders of magnitude decrease in C(Cs-137) values in the Southern Hemisphere, 104C(Cs-137)106, restrict the major impacts there to amphibia with G3x1010 and cartilaginous fish (I don't expect major human or mammal health effects in the Southern Hemisphere).

This is a horror story for people and other vertebrates living north of 40 N latitude in Europe and in Asia, and the 21st century will be the unfolding stage. Vertebrates in N. America will fare better, but not at all well!

Figures 11, 11a and 11b make it clear that the radioactive mechanisms that caused the prompt and continuing extinctions and decimations of exposed living populations (with 1 Ci/km² observed up to 2,000 km away) were quite distinct from the subtle genetic modifications usually manifest in future generations of cells (membranes, organs, individuals and populations) in exposed lifeforms at 30 N and 70 N lat. that are more than 10,000 km downwind for Chernobyl (U.S. and Canada). There the Extrapolated surface contamination would be in the range of 10-3 to 10-1 Ci(Cs-137)/km², or 10-3 to 10-1 Rem (I-131) in human thyroids. At these levels, average, long-term intracellular concentrations in 100 lb. vertebrates would be in the range 104 to >106 Cs-137 atoms/cc. This is just the range of concentrations that would exterminate and decimate amphibia only on a global scale. Genetic insults to land vertebrates would be minimal until higher concentrations of radioactivity accumulated in the future.

In the regions nearby, where 107C(Cs-137)1010, cells are being destroyed directly, immediately by extremely high levels of radioactivity (100 to 10,000 radioactive hits in each genome per cell division, which is no longer predictable). In this region, all small animals would die, say within 300 km. north-northwest and west of Chernobyl. This is the region dominated by "the HOTS" during late April, 1986.

Thus, this genetic mechanism, characterized by "the Species Survival Equation" is the process by which "safe, low-level radiation" extinguishes and decimates lifeforms at levels of contamination that are 100x to 10,000x lower than the levels of contamination that are known to produce death within two weeks in half of the individuals exposed ("LD-50" 400 Rem; or a 400 µCi body burden in Humans, or 400 Ci/km²). These "LD-50" levels are much like the highest radioactive exposures reported in "the HOTS"-contaminated Soviet people as reported by Alla Y. and shown on her maps in black.

So we not only have that long-awaited mechanism, its use allows us to interpret the Chernobyl-induced decade of global amphibian extinctions and decimations as a warning NOT to allow another Chernobyl to occur. Otherwise, the radioactive human extinctions, 



 
 decimations and catastrophes being experienced now throughout the Ukraine, Byelorussia and Russia since Chernobyl would become global. Then, Human Extinction would loom over all of us!

It is clear that planned and unplanned releases from operating nuclear reactors and from nuclear detonations will be dominated by Cs-137 and "the HOTS". Most atmospheric detonations carried the majority of their radioisotopes up into the stratosphere and then spread them downwind around the world. "The "HOTS" last about a month and spread over the 5,000 to 25,000 miles downwind (that's continental to global in scale) before they decay away.

The intermediate lifetimes [(1 yr. 30 yrs.) include Cs-134 ( = 2 yrs.), Kr-85 ( = 11 yrs.), Sr-90 ( = 28 yrs.) and Cs-137 ( = 30 yrs.)] will dominate for the next century, or so; then the long-lived isotopes (Pu, U, etc.) will endure for millennia to eons.

In the next hundred years, or so, Pu-isotopes can dominate the Ci-picture only when "the HOTS" and the intermediate lifetime radioisotopes are 10-5 the abundance of Pu, etc. The special cases when this condition is met are the NTS "Safety Tests" when many pounds of Pu were placed near detonations of tons of conventional High Explosives (HE) to see if the Pu could be driven to criticality. Only a tiny fraction (<10-6) of that Pu underwent fission, so the Pu was vaporized into the low atmosphere (h<10,000 ft.) and spread downwind.

An unplanned Pu-criticality event (13.4 kTHE) occurred in a "Pu-waste trench" at the Soviet nuclear weapons facility at "Chelyabinsk 40" (Kyshtyn) in the southern Ural Mtns. during 1957-58. Such a detonation would vaporize much more Pu than was detonated, so the local radioactive contamination could well have been dominated by Pu at that site from the start.

Since ingested and absorbed Pu concentrates up food chains/webs (like all Actinides do) more than Cs does, this mechanism increases the Pu/Cs ratio by 10x to 1000x in lifeforms, so if the Pu/Cs ratio was 100 to 104 initially(like in WIPP) Pu could be dominant in those lifeforms.

Sr-90 is a different matter. Sr mimics Ca and concentrates in growing teeth and bones. So whenever Sr-90 can get into growing vertebrates with Ca-deficiencies, it will be concentrated in those vertebrates' teeth and bones, especially in those who/that drink Sr-90 contaminated milk.

So most radioactive releases are dominated initially by "the HOTS", Cs-134, Sr-90, Kr-85, Cs-137, etc. in the near term. Pu dominates only in the long term and in some special cases like WIPP, etc.

And last are some considerations about where the major accumulations of radioactivity are in the biosphere. Figure 6 (U.S.) and Figure 7 (Soviet) show where the main continental fallout tracks have been from nuclear tests, the Chernobyl IV explosion and the 13.4 kT "Pu waste trench" criticality event at "Chelyabinsk 40." Add to those fallout distributions the high breast cancer death rates around the 50 oldest U.S. nuclear reactors shown in Figure 8 (from "TheEnemy Within" by S.J. Gould, 1997). These 3 maps show that the Northern Hemisphere has been thoroughly-contaminated by intermediate to long-lived radioisotopes Sr-90, Cs-137, Pu-239, U-238, etc. That means that concerned people can minimize their exposure to these destructive radiations only by using a quantative radiation detector (geiger counter, etc.) so you can determine where not to live, farm, work, play, etc.; or just move to the Southern Hemisphere now.

Overall the error bars on these upper limits on C(Cs-137) are ±50% at worst.

An Observation
 

While the uncertainties involved in this study of Chernobyl keep the relationships and conclusions from being compelling, the excellent agreement found for the Upper Limits on the Chernobyl C(Cs-137) values required in Humans and in other vertebrates to produce the recent, global vertebrate decimations in amphibia, Humans, etc. stimulate confidence in the possible validity of these upper limits and in the inescapable consequences for Human Life and for All Life on Earth.

The combination of the three good observational confirmations of this new mathematical model with the serious nature of the consequences for Human Health and Survival demands that the conclusive observational tests of the model be conducted by capable researchers as soon as possible. 


for Humans, for Nuclear Reactors, or for BOTH!
 
 If humans ever exhibit symptoms like the amphibia exhibit now, not all of the world's 450 operating nuclear reactors will undergo cold, controlled shutdowns; and the long-lived radioactive wastes from all of those reactors will go rapidly

(10 to 500 years) into the environment. That's millions of pounds of Pu to add to the earlier radioactive releases which caused the observed species extinctions via the hot, explosive shutdowns of the numerous nuclear reactors. If these Nukes are not adequately attended, the next Chernobyl will take its toll on sharks, rays, carnivorous Humans and mammals and carnivorous reptiles between 1999 and 2050 AD. By 2100 all humans would be dead. Figure 12 shows how "the NEXT CHERNOBYL" would impact species' genomes that were smaller than 2x109 basepairs.

Then the wave of long-lived radwastes from all of the nuclear reactors on Earth would overwhelm the biosphere and KILL ALL LIFE ON EARTH before the year 3000 AD!

From that point of view, shutting down all 500 to 1500 nuclear reactors by 2016 AD looks easy.

The choice is clear: If we don't shut down at least the worst 200 of the 450 large operating nuclear reactors, and soon; they will shut us all down, and soon; way too soon!

Not Quite "No Nukes," But . . .
 

If we let each nuclear reactor live out their "normal" lifetimes (30 years?), go off-line forever, and not be replaced with Nukes; we might keep the nuclear wolf outside.

To be realistic in our quest to put Our Nuclear Armageddon off, we must shut down the "lemons" and "rotten apples"* immediately and recognize that Russia, China, France, Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Taiwan, etc. WON'T COOPERATE in the No Replacement Policy for Nuclear Power Plants. Under these conditions, we could decrease the number of operating Nukes to less than 265 by 2015 AD. If "the next Chernobyl" hasn't occured by then, the expected date for "the next Chernobyl" would be put off from 2025 (450 Nukes) to 2050+ (250 Nukes). Then, if we can get another 83 shut down during the following ten years, by 2025, without realizing "the next Chernobyl", Armageddon might be as far away as 2075 AD. Is one Chernobyl every 100 years acceptable to "the People" of the earth? Let us hope that Humans live long enough to find out.

For the time-being, I suggest that (young) people move to the Southern Hemisphere and work to shut down the 10 Nukes there (Brazil-5, Argentina-3, and South Africa-2). The rest of us can work to shut down the remaining 440 Nukes in the Northern Hemisphere. The two-year delay at the equator decreases the Southern Hemispheric surface contamination (Cs-137) by 10x to 1000x. So it's well worth the trip till >90% of all Nukes are shut down.

Before you move to a region, first determine if and where the Nukes are within 100 miles. Then select a region more than 100 miles upwind from the nearest Nuke, and not within 1000 miles downwind or downstream from any Nuke.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* "Disasters Waiting to Happen", etc.
 

+ By 2050 we would have a clear picture of Global Human, Mammal, Amphibian, Vertebrate, Insect, Mollusk & Plant Costs of Chernobyl.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Advice About How to Get Out of This Global Radioactive Trap


Okay, we have to "Swim Up A Waterfall" to keep the window of Human Survival Ajar. That's a BIG order!

Regardless of the size of the task, the best way i know to guarantee that we fail is for no one to work seriously on how to "Swim Up Waterfalls"! As long as one committed, determined person is working seriously on solving a problem, I believe that there is hope that that problem will be solved!

We are entangled in a proliferating, global, NUCLEAR TRAP! THE NEXT CHERNOBYL will kill most of your children, and all of your grandchildren.

I believe that many Humans can escape that trap in the short term, but we must swim up some intimidating waterfalls soon to escape that trap! We must all start doing more than we have been doing.

We're in a new ballgame now, and "Today is the first day of the rest of your life."

Shutting down 90% of the world's Nukes may be mandatory, but we can be smooth to start with. Of the 450 large Nukes, a large number of Nukes are Really Undesireable "Accidents Waiting to Happen!"

LET US GET THOSE MONKEYS OFF OF OUR BACKS! Then we can figure out just how to include these technical realities into realistic, responsible, political and legal thinking.

First,

(1) All Nuclear Reactors (of all kinds) that are "off-line" now are to be kept off line.

(2) Any Nuclear Reactor that goes "off-line" (for any reason), will remain off-line.

(3) The purpose of shutting down nuclear reactors so promptly is to prevent another Chernobyl. The best way to do that is to shut down immediately all of the earth's nuclear "rotten apples", "lemons", "Accidents Waiting to Happen", etc.! Sometimes nuclear engineers can tell which ones they are, and they're the ones we want "off-line." No New Operating License or Construction License will be issued for a Nuclear Reactor.

(4) We MUST shut down the Worst 200 of the earth's 450 largest operating Nuclear Reactors during the next ten to fifteen years (before 2015). Then we must shut down another 100 large Nuclear Reactors during the following ten to fifteen years (before 2030). That's quick!

(5) These same shutdown rates apply to military, marine, isolated, and other Nuclear Reactors (100 Megawatt): 60% shut down before 2015 and 80% shut down before 2030!

(6) WIPP MUST NOT OPEN, ever! That is my personal commitment. WIPP is a Radioactive Release Program for Pu!*

(7) Yucca Mountain MUST NEVER OPEN!

(8) We MUST stop all discovery, mining, processing, transporting, or using of large amounts of uranium worldwide.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* See "the book" for details.
 
 
 

(9) We MUST stop releasing radioactive matter! We MUST adopt a "ZERO RELEASE Policy" for all radioactive matter!
 

These are the things that MUST be done immediately and maintained.
 

While becoming "VEGAN" (no milk, no eggs Vegetarians) won't guarantee Human Survival, it does increase your chances of survival by 10x to 1000x over those who eat meat, milk and/or eggs! It is a thing worth doing. I became a vegetarian on 23 September 1998. Before that, I endured "HEARTBURN' bouts daily. Since then, I have not experienced a single heartburn attack, no matter how much margarine or olive oil I put on my veggies!

There are some physical and economic realities realities involved with the long-term containment of Many Thousands of Tons of Pu, etc., etc., ... So we MUST develop new technologies that allow us to neutralize radioactive substances; turn all radioactive matter into harmless non-radioactive ash. That would require new scientific discoveries before any "neutralization" could take place. The world's national labs could be focused on this problem in a friendly, but crucial, global competition to get it solved ASAP!

Indeed, you can't choreograph specific discoveries, but you can increase the numbers of scientific explorers and escalate their dedications. Additional funds for these researchers would involve the government, commercial, independent and university communities in the discovery efort. Then it's a matter of time, wit and luck. Only then can we think in terms of the long-term survival of life on earth.

If that is to occur, there is a crucial short list, and a desireable long list, of changes that are to be made before "business as usual" can again become an acceptable mode of operation in society, capitalism, the law, government, or at home.

Until all of these changes are made and carried out worldwide, we will still be in that global nuclear TRAP!

Be "the straw that breaks the (nuclear) camel's back!" Keep at it: We'll know in ten years.

The Siberian "sole source of survival" "Pu Production Reactors", et al. are a real problem that needs solving because these reactors will be shut down eventually. So let us solve that problem while we are still in control in these situations, before the disastrous shutdowns do start to occur.

When Reactor shutdown mandates extinction of remaining populations, let that local "extinction" be due to migration, not termination. So evaluate the children, the pregnant first, and then the fertile, and let the others close up the associated towns.

Can we extend the suggestion of Gould, et al. that "safe" low levels of radioactivity (the dark areas on the Gould Map of above average U.S. breast cancer death rates, (Figure 6, p.55) interfere with human immune systems enough to decrease resistance and to cause increased vulnerabilities to people in all areas of high population density? Or does their finding apply only to the highly-developed societies? There high concentrations of disease and chemical pollutants from fossil fuel burning (cars, power plants, industries, etc.), petrochemical industries, etc. combine synergistically with local and global radioactive contamination. That combination produced the breast cancer plagues that have started around most of the operating nuclear reactors in the U.S.

Extrapolation to the global scale suggests that Chernobyl's Cs-137, Kr-85, Cs-134, I-131, Xe-131, etc. have established a global radioactive context that encourages and accelerates viral, bacterial, amoebic and fungal outbreaks and plagues worldwide. These catastrophes would be particularly conspicuous within 1000 km. of Chernobyl and immediately around and downwind from NTS, Novaya Zemlya, TMI, Chelyabinsk-40, etc. Exactly what impact will occur for specific human epidemics is not clear, but recent perennial global and local maladies like bubonic plague, smallpox, cholera, HIV/AIDS, flu, cancers, etc. are prime candidates for the immune-suppressing synergies of our radioactive world

Our "civilized" laws require that victims demonstrate real, manifest physical damage (photos, tapes, medical records, bills) before "justice" can occur, and unborn victims get no justice. Thus, our system is doomed to self-destruct on any large-scale, silent, invisible, latent biohazard that is not manifest for more than 5-10 years. These conditions are more than satisfied by radioactivity!

Radioactive insults to cell genomes produce just such a set of manifestations. Cancers typically take 3, 5, 10, 20, 50 yrs. to develop in humans, and one generation time for humans to manifest genetic damage is about 20 yrs. So continuous population-wide exposure to global radioactivity that is producing increasing mutations, cancers, immune system suppressions, localized extinctions, miscarriages, first-year deaths, etc. will produce in humans inevitable population-wide mass extinctions within 5 generations (100 years). One more Chernobyl in the northern hemisphere, and all of that will come to pass.

Population control through periodic (1 per century) Chernobyls, and we think that cigarettes are bad. One Chernobyl per century means 30 operating reactors, or an "accident" rate that is 10x better than our record to date.

If Scientology, et al. are to prevail and "free us" in the next millennium, their followers had better shut down the world's Nukes SOON, or start teaching the rest of us how to survive in a suffocatingly radioactive world without any other living vertebrates in it.

That also goes for "Jehovah's Witness" and other belief systems, religions, etc. that expect any kind of Human Ascendancy during the 21st century. Shutting down the world's Nukes during the next ten to twenty years is a good test of faith.

Welcome to the struggle.

When is Ted Turner going to produce Jane Fonda's sequel: "The Last China Syndrome" that shows what would happen if a modern reactor exploded and burned like Chernobyl did; but with modern attitudes, communications, training, facilities, etc. The ending is dreadful in any event

So there it is!
 

We have the physical mechanism and a first order mathematical model for genome mutation rates due to intracellular concentrations of known radioactive isotopes (U-238, Pu-239, I-131, Sr-90, Kr-85 or Cs-137).

When quantative Chernobyl data are extrapolated to continental, hemispheric and global scales, then used in "the Species Survival Equation" for Cs-137, many of the world's recent problems are shown to be caused by the 4x107 Ci(Cs-137) released into the global biosphere during Chernobyl's 1986 explosion, meltdown and core fire. Those global problems include a decade of amphibian decimations, a 20% increase in low birthweight babies, unexpected and increasing thyroid and breast cancer death rates, a startling 39% decrease in the life expectancies of Russians, Ukrainians and Byelorussians. These points and more elaborated in "The Enemy Within" by Jay M. Gould (aka S. Jay Gould). The "handwriting on the wall" of 1985 has become common knowledge in the minds of interested scientists in 1998. So why haven't the powers that rule our world responded to these self-evident, mathematically inescapable nuclear truths in some reasonable way?

President Clinton has shown us all some of the childish tendencies that powerful people cling to when they are caught:

Denial! Lies!

Denial! Lies!

Lies! Denial!

The nuclear nations are the same when it comes to the harmful effects of a self-regulated nuclear industry. The Republican U.S. Congress has brought Bill Clinton up short, but in 1997 many of those same U.S. Senators voted to renew the 45 yr. old Price-Anderson Act..
 

The following is a series of quotes of some of the conclusions presented in "The Enemy Within." Jay Gould, p. 197 and 198:

"I would like to offer one reason for believing that solving the problems of low-level radiation can ultimately lead to a rational reordering of a pollution-free global economy, one that will constitute a revolutionary break with an outmoded past. The process may begin at any moment, in the aftermath of the next inevitable nuclear accident of the magnitude of Chernobyl, which I don't believe any current political system will be able to survive.

My believe rests on the recognition that Chernobyl was the watershed event that will eventually be seen as the necessary counterpart to Hiroshima in changing the course of history. Despite the fact that Einstein said the nuclear bomb changed everything except the way people think, Chernobyl has begun to change the way people think. This is a fact still denied by the nuclear powers, who misread Chernobyl exactly as they failed in 1945 to see in Hiroshima its ultimate threat to human survival."
 

"In this book, I have stated my grounds for believing instead that, in a single cataclysmic moment, Chernobyl revealed the Soviet rulers' massive deception of the Soviet population, which gave rise to the wave of civil disorder that continues today.

We have shown in this book that the Western powers that won World War II and saw in the nuclear bomb the promise of unlimited power are now also beset with an uncontrollable epidemic rise in radiation-induced illnesses and in the costs of medical care. All major nuclear powers today face the probability that the next nuclear accident of the magnitude of Windscale in 1957, Three Mile Island in 1979, and Chernobyl in 1986 will severely challenge their political legitimacy.

Indeed, the mindless zeal with which governments now permit the earth's fragile environment to be undermined can be likened to the political idiocy of the European heads of state on the eve of World War I. I believe that their inevitable failure to cope with problems beyond their understanding means that they will ultimately suffer the same fate as Corbachev and the leaders of the former Soviet Union."
 

"Even in the former Soviet Union, suffering from a ten-year drop in life expectancy attributable to past misrule, I do not think the present state of near anarch can continue indefinitely."
 

"So this, then, is the basis of my belief that the struggle against environmental pollution is one that cannot be lost-humankind will not permit its extinction at the hands of those few whose wealth and power can be swiftly eroded in the wake of the consequences of environmental folly."
 
 

What You Can Do About Global Sr and Cs:

First, All Grazing Livestock Milk is Contaminated with Sr-90!!! Don't Drink or Use, MILK. Stable Calcium (Ca from Dolomite) blocks the absorption of Sr by the body, so take Calcium and Potassium to supplement your strict Vegetarian ("Vegan") Diet (see the following Table).

If you live within 100 miles of an operating nuclear reactor, or if another Chernobyl-like disaster occurs, add stable iodine (I) to that list.

Since about 440 of the world's 450 large nuclear power plants are in the northern hemisphere, "the next Chernobyl" is very likely to be in the north! So a move to the Southern Hemisphere, far from the ten NUKES there, is the best thing that you can do to protect you and yours from radioactivity.
 



 
 

Experiments Needed to Clarify the Role of Pu, Sr, Cs and U in the "Amphibia Problem":


There are two classes of experiments that can test and refine the mathematical model(s) presented in this study:

  • Measure the concentrations of Pu, U, Sr and Cs in cells as outlined below.
  • The determinations of G-values for extinct, extincting, mutating and healthy amphibia. The most decimated amphibian species would exhibit the highest G-values (1010G1011), and those salamanders* with the smallest G-values (6x108G2x109) would exhibit minimal genetic impacts.

  •  
Determine G and C values for all significant species:
  • In Amphibia, their eggs and tadpoles, large Fish and large Mammals in 260 Global fresh water sites: one per nation plus 100 "selected" fresh water sites in and out of nearby, downwind and downstream fallout tracks.
  • In associated Estuaries, Muds and Waters (Streams, Rivers, Ponds, Marshes and Headwaters), in and out of downwind and downstream tracks and around Chernobyl, TMI, "C-40," NTS, etc.
  • In associated Fish, flowering Plants, Monera, Ferns, Angiosperms, Algae and Protista.
  • In associated Amphibia Prey (Insects, Crustacea, Worms and small Fish).
  • In the associated Amphibian Predators (Fish, Reptiles, Birds, Mammals).

  •  
Start now and sample every five years for the next fifty years. Sample various G Amphibia, carnivorous Mammals and Fish annually. Such studies done for ten years would clarify the role of Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu, C(Pu), etc., in the extraordinary Amphibian mutations, morbidities and mortalities of the last decade.

Again, I quote from "The Enemy Within," p. 192:

"As a result of human population growth, consequent shifts in hunting and habitat patterns, and recent environmental abuses, it has been estimated that over the past few millennia biological species have been disappearing at a rate of 30,000 each year, a rate matching that of the Permian extinction 65 million years ago, when nearly 95 percent of all species were obliterated. One should consider, for example, that the current worldwide disappearance of frogs includes remote areas with inaccessible high altitudes, which cannot be attributed to industrial chemical pollution alone."

"In retrospect, it seems obvious that if low-level radiation can harm the human immune response, all other living beings would also be adversely affected. Certainly there has been considerable damage done in the past half century."
 
 
 
 
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* Species of Bolitoglossine Salamanders

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The "Nuclear Exclusion Clause" in Your Home and Business Insurance Policies,

and the "Price-Anderson Act"


In 1952 the U.S. government told U.S. utilities "Go nuclear, or we will nationalize the electric power industry." The utilities asked where they could get insurance, for not even "Lloyd's of London" would set premiums for this large, dangerous and untried new technology. Senators Price and Anderson drafted an Act that provided federal coverage (a few cents on the dollar) for losses endured from an accident in the first 63 nuclear power reactors (dubbed "experimental") in the U.S.

The U.S. Insurance industry responded promptly by writing a "Nuclear Exclusion Clause" into every insurance policy sold from then on in the U.S. Check your own insurance policies (home, business, etc.). The "Nuclear Exclusion Clause" provides that your insurance policy does not apply to losses due to nuclear war or nuclear reactor accidents, releases or radioactive contamination. Many go into great detail about what they don't cover.

There are now 107 commercial nuclear power plants operating in the U.S., and more than 4000 Reactor years of U.S. commercial nuclear power experience (Fermi, TMI-II, ?), not to mention the experimental nuclear reactors that exploded at Los Alamos and Idaho NEL. The "Price-Anderson Act" has been reenacted each time it has come up for renewal every 5 years, and U.S. insurance policies have nuclear exclusion clauses.

All of this GUARANTEES that the (U.S.) Public is not protected from physical contamination or from economic ruin by our large, irresponsible nuclear power industry.* What about the "coverage" provided by the out-of-date Price-Anderson Act? Since all of the operating commercial nuclear power plants in the U.S. are about 1000 MegaWatts (Almost Ten Billion Dollars each), guess which nuclear utilities have Applications Already Filled-Out (except for the date) and ready to submit to the AEC/NRC so they can recover their losses FIRST!!! Guess how much of the Price-Anderson money will be left for "The People" after the nuclear utility is paid for the nuclear reactor that they lost! Duh!

Once again the nuclear Federal-Industrial Conspiracy ("business as usual") against the interests of "The People" is clear. So what can we do?

  • Tell your U.S. senators that it is time to discard the Price-Anderson Act (comes up again in 2002 AD).
  • In view of the elevated U.S. breast cancer death rates within 100 mi. of most operating nuclear reactors in the U.S.*,
the Attorneys General of all of those states should bring suit against the nuclear power plant owners, managers and operators for medical costs paid by the states for those breast (and other) cancer victims' treatments, etc. Just like they did with Big Tobacco, Gun Manufacturers, . . . Such are the nuclear losses and the reactor release costs that are covered by Price-Anderson. Does "first come, first serve" prevail under Price-Anderson? Can N.M. Attorney General Patricia Madrid (and U.S. Janet Reno), bring Price-Anderson suits to Federal courts to recover State and U.S. Medical Costs for Los Alamos and Four Corners-induced breast cancers, etc. and deaths?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* See Figure 6 (p. 19), copied from "The Enemy Within" by S. Jay Gould, et al, 1997.
 

This same point of view expects the Chiefs of Justice in the sovereignities of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Germany, England, France, Italy and Norway, et al. to seek repayment for the present and future human and economic costs of Chernobyl releases?

National, State and Local "Fish and Wildlife" Departments worldwide can now bring suits to recover Chernobyl-induced losses due to the decade of National, State and Local amphibian and other decimations. To make this legal knot tight, the observations specified on p. 52 must be taken and verified.

The logical conclusion of this reasoning is that when the determinations of G's and C's (Pu, Sr+Cs, U, etc.) in species and in environments, Isotope Ratios, etc. show that the Amphibian Decimations are indeed due to radioactive insults released from Chernobyl IV, a call will propagate around the world for the prompt shutdown of large (commercial, military, etc.) nuclear reactors worldwide. That call will resonate and grow into a deafening thunder that will bring down the walls of The Nuclear Jericho.

To start with, the worst of the chronically bad nuclear reactors must be shut down immediately and decommissioned. Then the rest will be phased-out ASAP with impatience.

With informed public, corporate and government participation in a global energy conservation and procrastination program, most of the remaining nuclear reactors on Earth will be shut down. Thus, terminal escalation of the ongoing vertebrate mass extinctions can be precluded. This is a thing that must be done intelligently in the next ten to fifteen years if humans are to survive the 21st century.

Once that we "Victims* of Chernobyl" start winning our lawsuits against Chernobyl's heirs, we'll see how eager governments are to license or to operate more large nukes.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* No physical protection, no property protection, no insurance protection, no health protection, no economic protection, no inheritance protection; no land, crop or livestock protection,

no, no, no, no . . . Just Say No Nukes!!!
 

The U.S. Federal Government has seized "states'" and "the people" Constitutional "powers" when the Feds told U.S. Utilities (each with a STATE franchise) to "Go nuclear or We Will Nationalize the Utilities", and when the Feds enacted "The Price-Anderson Act", they were in direct, unconstitutional, economic competition with U.S. and world insurance companies:
 

Amendment x (1791)

"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."
 

Since no state has surrendered its right to license (to construct, or to operate) nuclear power plants, states still have the right to shut down nuclear power plants operating in their jurisdictions. So "The People" may be most effective by getting their states to revoke nuclear power plant licenses.

Federal Subsidies of Large-Scale Nuclear Technologies (Military and Commercial) Must Stop, and a National Program to Shut Down All Large Scale Nuclear Projects Worldwide and to Start the Crash Program to Remove Radioactive Hazards for the Biosphere will become our primary commitment. Assign every National Lab and each Federal Contractor the task of finding new, failsafe ways of "completely" removing U.S. Radioactive Hazards from the Biosphere. Thinking is our most fruitful effort.

Burial in the Earth does not provide a real expectation of isolation of radioactive wastes from the biosphere for hundreds of thousands of years. Existing radioactive wastes will remain hazardous for almost one million years.

Burial at sea is an absurd idea that does not survive scrutiny.

Normal transport accident rates guarantee releases of radioactivity along transport routes.

One large rocket in 25 or 30 explodes in the atmosphere; that's too many to carry radioactive wastes. We would no survive the explosion of one such rocket in the atmosphere. Remember, we are talking about millions of tons of radioactive wastes.

Burning radioactive wastes in an incinerator invariably releases radioisotopes into the atmosphere and defeats the goal of "isolation." Further, whatever radioisotopes are captured in the incinerators' filters must be isolated from the biosphere for more than 750,000 years and longer! We still don't know how to do that.

"Harmless" (?) "Depleted Uranium", the U.S. Global Gift to the World.


The entirety of my testimony on the Health Problems in "The People of Socorro, New Mexico" due to "Depleted Uranium" Weapons Testing a few miles upwind, and in "the People" of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Kosovo and other "Depleted Uranium" release sites is presented here.

The Socorro Problem is the U-238 Contamination of:

The People of Socorro, New Mexico;

The People of the Middle Rio Grande River from Bernardo to Elephant Butte;

The Wildlife within 50 miles North, Northeast, & East of Socorro, NM; and

The Wildlife within the Sevilleta NWR and the Cibola National Forest

for the rest of the earth's life (5 billion years).

The Radioactive Context for STS Operations is:

Cs-137, Pu-239, Sr-90, "the HOTS", etc. Contamination of Socorro County, NM

by "Trinity", STS, LANL, etc.;

The State of New Mexico by WIPP;

The U.S. by NTS, "Depleted Uranium" Facilities, Nukes, WIPP; and

The Earth by Chernobyl, A-Bombs, and H-Bombs.

Some Experiments and Legal Solutions are Proposed.

___________________________________________________________________

Presented to The Office of Epidemiology

New Mexico Dept. of Health, Public Health Div.

by

Charles L. Hyder, Ph.D.

4 Feb. 1999


I was born and raised in New Mexico, and I have had an interest in New Mexico's Growing Radioactive Contamination since 1945 when I saw "the Trinity Shot."
 

In Iraq the average surface contamination (Ci/km2) of thousands of square miles due to "Depleted Uranium" incendiaries (DUI) is equal to the average global surface contamination due to Chernobyl's Cs-137 releases (0.01 to 0.1 Ci/km2) as shown in the map of northern Eurasia. Since Chernobyl's 1986 radioactive releases have caused 10X to 100X increased biospheric radioactivity, the global amphibian decimations, increased cancer death rates in humans, a decrease in "Life Expectancy" from 68 years to 42 years for Russians, and regional contamination of U.S. populations in Nevada, Arizona, Utah, etc. (all shown directly downwind from the Nevada (A-bomb) Test Site (NTS) on the U.S. NTS map where A-bomb fallout and radioactive releases from Los Alamos had already elevated surface radioactivity (Pu, Cs, Sr, etc.) during the 40 years before Chernobyl); additional radioactive releases only escalate the radioactive threats to exposed living beings.
 

Socorro County, New Mexico already has its share of Chernobyl's Cs-137 contamination (0.01 to 0.1 Ci/km2) and NTS's Pu-239, Cs-137, Sr-90, "HOTS", etc. fallout (which should be somewhat less than the NTS fallout in Nevada, Utah, and Arizona); "Trinity" Pu, Cs, Sr, etc.; elevated breast cancer death rates due to radioactive releases from Los Alamos' Nuclear Reactors (see the following U.S. and New Mexico maps)* from 1942 to now (in black) and of New Mexico and the U.S. that includes predictable WIPP transport releases in red, plus the windblown Uranium aerosols from DUI burning in the Socorro Test Site (STS) just west of New Mexico Tech. (NMT), (see the maps of Socorro and environs) starting in 1972.
 

In addition to the other radioactive contaminations, the large amounts of DUI released into the STS environment and distributed according to the STS schedule and STS windrose(s) has not been good news for downwind and downstream amphibia, children, . . . mammals, . . .
 

A good way to compare the relative significance of STS Radioactivity with Chernobyl's is to determine where the growing amphibian population depletions started; [(N(t)] for DUI's after '72 or after '86 out to 50 miles in the STS windrose lobes.
 

"DUI" = "depleted uranium" indenciaries

= depleted uranium "Incendiots" who order, buy, plan for and use these insidious, radioactive incendiary weapons! Naughty! Naughty!
 

Here I interject a letter to the U.N. and two Preprints from my forthcoming book ("Human Extinction on this Chernobyl-Contaminated Planet" : "A WARNING" and the chapter on "Gulf War" Cancers from "Depleted Uranium (U-238) Penetrators"). In the last table in that chapter, "Estimated Ci(U-238)/km2 (STS)," the local surface contamination due to the burning of

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* See Figures 6, 7 and 8 too. 



 
 


 
 Honorable Kofi Annan:
First, let me thank you for the way you have conducted U.N. affairs. We are all beneficiaries of your peaceful prudence, and I thank you.
 

I am an independent PhD physicist concerned about radioactive contamination.
Attached is a 9-point argument that supports my request that you expand your U.N. studies of the global U-238 problems to include the measurements that I need to define unambiguously the relationship(s) between U-238 contamination and specific morbidity, mortality, and survival problems in exposed Iraqui, Kuwaiti, Saudi Arabian, U.N., U.S. and other populations.
 

These empirically-defined relationships would allow us to determine which regions of Iraq; Kuwait; Saudi Arabia; Socorro, New Mexico; etc. are uninhabitable "sacrifice zones"
 

Further, appropriate compensation for these unintended, unexpected and denied consequences of U.S. and British U-238 war technologies can be offered.
 

I am enthusiastic about participating in the proposed programs. Pleas feel free to call on me to demonstrate and explain the mathematical model and its applications to anyone you want.
 

Also enclosed are:
 

A) The summary and the derivation of the mathematical model from my published book:
 

"Human Survival on a Plutonium-Contaminated Planet," Amador Press: Albuquerque, New Mexico: 1998.
 

B) "A WARNING" and the chapter "Gulf War" Cancers from . . ." preprints from my soon-to-be-published book "Human Extinction on this Chernobyl-Contaminated Planet," Amador Press: Albuquerque, New Mexico: 1998.
 
 
 

Cordially,
 

Charles L. Hyder
 

Copy to U.S. Secretary of Defense Cohen
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Attachment
 

  • I have derived a sound mathematical model for radioactive insult by alpha-particles in cells' genomes that specifies the concentration of Pu in cells, C(Pu) required to cause harmful mutation rates in the contaminated cells of various vertebrate species (see the published Pu book enclosures).

  •  
  • In my forthcoming Chernobyl book, that mathematical model is applied to the enormous release of 40 million Curies of Cs-137 from Chernobyl during the spring of 1986.

  •  
  • Global contamination by that Cs-137 explains the worldwide extinctions and decimations of amphibian species since Chernobyl.

  •  
  • Measured high Cs-137 contaminations of Europe and Asia explain the drastic reductions in "Life Expectancy" in Russia, Ukraine and Byelorus since Chernobyl.

  •  
  • The "unexpected" and "surprising" worldwide increases in post-Chernobyl cancer rates are also explained by the high global concentrations of Cs-137.

  •  
  • These analyses show that humans (all mammals) are on the threshold of experiencing the same radioactive consequences as the amphibia have shown. The next Chernobyl-size disaster will push Humans, et al. over that threshold and cause global mass extinctions of humans, mammals, many fish and reptiles, some birds and even more amphibian species and threaten human survival before the year 2100.

  •  
  • When this mathematical model is applied to WIPPu, it shows that even a release of 100 lbs. Pu from WIPP (<1% release) during the next 50,000 yrs would also threaten Human Survival and cause global mass extinctions of any other vertebrate species.

  •  
  • Detailed measurements of U-238 contaminations (Curies/sq. kilometer, Ci/km2; and micro Curies/individual, µCi body burden), and associated individual locations and body weights, are needed throughout Iraq, Kuwait and northeastern Saudi Arabia and around Socorro, New Mexico before any conclusive connections can be made between U-238 contaminations and the observed human mortalities and morbidities in the contaminated regions.

  •  
  • Health problems due to U-238 would involve primarily lungs, kidneys bones, the spleen, the lower large intestine, the liver, fatigue and survival in exposed populations.
7 PM 16 Dec 1998
 

Dear Secretary Cohen:
 

The enclosed letter to Kofi Amman (UN) outlines real problems that can arise from the use of "Depleted Uranium (U-238) penetrators in regions occupied by living things. The Iraqi claims that their people are being victimized by the U-238 contaminations in their homelands could well be true.
 

It is said that 300 tons to 1,000,000 tons (?) of U-238 contaminations in their homelands could well be true.
 

Given the recent bombings, Kuwait may be the best place to initiate these clarifying measurement studies, and their public health consequences. After that, Iraq may be more receptive to these proposals.
 

Please do what you can to expedite clarification of this issue. Subjecting the UN, Iraqi and other peoples to unintended and unnecessary suffering due to our actions cannot be a goal of the U.S., of the British, or of the U.N.
 

Thank you for your attention.
 

Cordially,
 

Charles L. Hyder

22 March 1999
 

Dear Secretary Cohen:
 

In the context of my certified letter of 16 December 1998 that arrived at your Pentagon on 16 February 1999:
 

There is an element, Hafnium (Hf) that is:

Pyrophoric when "finely divided"!

Dense, Sp. Gr.=13.31;

NOT Radioactive! And

of Low Toxicity!!!
 

This element looks like it is an excellent, humane replacement for "Depleted Uranium" in your penetrating weapons (bunkers and armor).
 

Hafnium may not be the best solution; I happened across it when I was studying other things. Perhaps your experts can find a preferable dense, pyrophoric, non-toxic substance that satisfies your military needs without causing any unnecessary suffering by unintended innocent victims.
 

I really feel strange as I help you redesign weapons of war!
 

Cordially,
 

Charles L. Hyder
 

RSVP

xc: Kofi Annan

Damacio Lopez

The World
 

1000 to 3000 large (ten pound) "Depleted Uranium Penetrators", or 15,000 to 45,000 small

(2/3 lb.) Rounds, within 3 miles (5 km) of STS would equal or exceed the 0.01 to 0.1 Ci/km2 of global Chernobyl contamination. So those amounts of aerosolized U-238 would double the radioactive insult in living things downwind from STS to the Rio Grande River and beyond. Since Chernobyl contamination has already caused global amphibian decimations, that doubling is more than enough to cause all of the ill health effects observed in "The People" of Socorro, N.M.

In the Grants-Mt. Taylor-Shiprock Uranium mine and mill region, strict regulations limit how much U-238 etc. can be left lying around. Here at the STS, NMT researchers take no pains to contain the highly toxic clouds of hot, windblown U-238 aerosols generated at the STS. That's not right!

Does anyone really believe that the New Mexico economy, (tourism, real estate, retirement, etc.) will thrive, or even survive, when the highly-publicized WIPP Transport accidents in New Mexico (50 to 150) lead to radioactive releases (5 to 20) along I-25 and U.S. 285 between Raton and WIPP (see NM map) during the next 30 years or so that add even more long-lived radioactive contamination to our already considerable radioactive exposures? Fat Chance!

A WARNING


"We The People" are experiencing the consequences of "safe", "harmless", low levels of radioactive exposure, and we are teaching our governments and our top board members that even releases of "benign" "Depleted Uranium" will not be tolerated. It is extremely cruel, then deadly for anyone or anything living in, around, downwind from, or downstream from (Depleted) Uranium Explosions, Tests, Mines, Mills, etc. Any radiation detector will tell you if Depleted Uranium contaminates any Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, U.S. test site, soldier, child, river, etc.

Chernobyl raised the global biospheric radiation levels above the publicly-acceptable level when Chernobyl's Cs-137, etc., decimated global amphibian populations. Since then even "benign" additions of radioactivity to the biosphere elevate the local Human Populations above the "harmless" levels and cause Human Beings in Iraq; Kuwait; NTS; Socorro, New Mexico (Exhibit 3 & U.S. Map); etc. to exhibit the same symptoms as the millions of Human victims of Chernobyl, Hiroshima & Nagasaki, and the same as those billions of radioactive amphibian victims have exhibited since Chernobyl (26 Apr. 1986).

Our nuclear decisions makers must face the fact that Chernobyl has pushed us past the edge; we have taken up all of the radioactive "slack" that biological reality allows on this Earth!

What would another Chernobyl do now in that intolerant context?

We must stop releasing radioactivity into the biosphere!

There are about 500 Chernobyl-size nuclear reactors operating on the Earth. The "drums" are no longer distant. It is time to shut down those large nuclear reactors, and the more than 1000 military and commercial reactors that power ships, submarines, isolated populations, etc.

Oh yes indeed, there is an alternative to extinction; NASA, et al. (Provided they stop sending radioactive power supplies to the Moon(s) and to Mars!).

The global Cs-137 contamination will dominate vertebrate health and survival for more than a century! Then Pu-239 contamination will dominate for the next million years! But the U-238 contaminated regions will remain deadly "sacrifice zones" until the Sun Expands to consume the Earth in 5 billion years!

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1Anything in here may be copied and distributed freely as long as proper credit is given: Booktitle, author and Publisher name, address and phone number conspicuous.

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"GULF WAR" CANCERS FROM "DEPLETED URANIUM (U-238) PENETRATORS"1


Today, 1 Dec. 1998, the four major U.S. TV networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, CNN) announced that Dictator Saaddam Hussein claimed that U.S. Uranium (from "Depleted Uranium Penetrators") has contaminated his people (adults and children) and given them many cancers and deaths. An M.D. confirmed unusually high cancer rates in people from the vicinity of tank battlefields.

On p.3 of "the book" (9 Nov. '98') this cancer plague was "predicted" in, near and downwind from those tank battlefields, "Depleted Uranium" fires in Kuwait and bunker-penetrating bomb detonations, see paragraph (3) on p. 3, of "the book": "Many Iraqi and U.N. soldiers and Iraqi and Kuwaiti civilians and their descendants will die of cancers and other genetic damage caused by the 300 tons of radioactive 'Depleted Uranium penetrators' that were vaporized during the one-sided 'Gulf War' bombings and in tank battles."

U.S. "experts" claimed that "Depleted Uranium is so benign* that it cannot cause the claimed Iraqi cancers and deaths."

These contradictory claims can be resolved by measuring C(U-238) in the cells of the Iraqi victims. The following analysis based on "the Species Survival Equation", (p. 23 of "the book") for U-238 in Humans ( = 4.5x109 yrs., G = 3x109 and Ro = 5x10-3 cm.) shows what C(U-238)'s in Human cells are required to cause mutations, cancers, etc. for t2>100 ("2X")) and deaths (t2"2X").
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1Anything in here may be copied and distributed freely as long as proper credit is given:

Book title, author and Publisher name, address and phone number conspicuous.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*"Uranium and its compounds are highly toxic, both from a chemical and radiological standpoint." p. B-36, CRC "Handbook of Chemistry and Physics," 55th Edition (1974-75).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"the book" = "Human Survival on a Plutonium-Contaminated Planet",

1998 by Charles L. Hyder, Amador Publisher.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 1

C(I) = 6.7x1013 ------------- ----- --------

20 or 1ß Ro G x t2


C = the concentration of radioactive isotope (I)

I = Sr-90+Cs-137 (ß-emitters), or Pu-239(-emitter), or U-238, ...

20 - "the -factor", =1.0 for ß's

= the isotope "decay time", = 1/2/0.69

Ro = the particle (, or ß) range
 
 
 

For t2(U-238) = t2(Pu-239),
 


U Pu

-------- = --------- ,

C(U) C(Pu)

U

C(U-238) = C(Pu-239) ------- ,

Pu




U 4.5x109 yrs.

----- = ----------------- = 1.9x105,

Pu 2.4x104 yrs.
 
 

so C(U-238) 1.9x105 C(Pu-239), and
 


2.4x1020 x 1.9x105

t2(U-238) = ------------------------.

G x C(U-238)






For t2 = "2X",
 
 

4.6x1025

C(U-238) < --------------

G x "2X"








The graph of "The Equation" for C(U-238) is shown in Figure 12 along with C(Pu-239) for comparison.

From Figure 12, the minimum harmful range of C(U-238) for humans is:
 


1014 C(U-238) 1016,


 
 
 and that yields a Table of Lower Limits for U-238 "Body Levels" ( Ci) 


 
 The "insoluble" uranium oxides decompose or dissolve in the stomach's hydrochloric acid (HCl), but they would remain insoluble in lungs; so humans in contaminated regions have both soluble and insoluble Uranium in their bodies. How much is yet to be determined.

The heavy black border in the Table encloses the U-238 "body levels" that exceed the 0.009 Ci "permissible body level" for insoluble uranium in the words of the CRC Handbook (see second footnote on p. 2).
 

So Human cells with average U-238 concentrations, C(U-238) somewhere in the range:
 


1014 1016 1018

mutant & sick, liver Certain

short-term necrosis Human

survivors Death


will cause the symptoms observed in Iraqi victims of U.S. and British U-238 weapons. With these numbers of Uranium atoms per cubic centimeter (<1014 to 1018), the "body levels" of U-238 in Curies (Ci) are needed for all exposed individuals.

An additional test of the consequences of "benign" vaporized U-238 is to study amphibian populations along the Euphrates River and the Rio Grande River, or marshes near, or downwind and downstream from, areas where "Depleted Uranium Penetrators" were used. If humans are indeed suffering from exposure to U-238 radioactive contamination, nearby amphibia would exhibit a variety of typical symptoms (elevated cancers, mutations, morbidities, extinctions, etc.), depending on their genome sizes (see Figure G).

"The Species Survival Equation" is specifically applicable to the "benign" low levels of radioactivity (10-3 to 10-1 Rem) that the World's nuclear establishments habitually call "safe" and "non-hazardous" for humans.

While this section was developed with Iraqi and Kuwaiti civilians and soldiers in mind, it is also applicable to U.N. soldiers who were exposed to high levels of U-238 contamination during "The Gulf War", and to the many U.S. citizens exposed during tests of these insidious U-238 weapons near Socorro, New Mexico, etc. (See the maps in "A WARNING").

Could U-238 Contamination be a synergistic source of "Gulf War Syndrome" in U.S. Gulf War Veterans? The symptoms are right. How about the symptoms exhibited by the citizens of Socorro, N.M.?

Thus, the Iraqis, the Kuwaitis and the U.N. inspectors, et al. need to determine wholebody Ci values for individual victims; all to be recorded along with their weight and their personal and health histories, particularly their locations and experiences during and after "the Gulf War". In addition, good maps showing Ci(U-238)/km2 throughout, within 100 miles of and within the downstream and downwind plumes (500 miles long and 200 miles wide) of all penetrating explosions in Iraq and in Kuwait. With these data, "Lethal and Dangerous" zones can be defined, evacuated and fenced. The costs of all of these actions and more must be born by the U.N., the Nations using "Depleted Uranium Penetrators" and the Nations that decided to use such inhumane, cruel weapons.

I would be happy to do the analyses and to make and explain the necessary determinations if I can get the specific data for U-238, etc. outlined above before the DOE sends its first truck to WIPP ( spring 1999).

With "Uranium compounds" a comparison shows that its chemical toxicity (CT) is 6× less than even its "benign" radioactive toxicity (RT). If we use that comparison to estimate the radioactive toxicity of other isotopes compared with the chemical toxicity of "Uranium compounds", we get


 



Only Insoluble levels were defined as "permissible" for both, and a "chemically permissible level" of 0.24 mg/m3 for U-238 in air would exceed the IU* Radioactive "permissible levels" by a factor of 6! So Uranium radioactive toxicity is much greater than its chemical toxicity (CT). Pu-239 Radioactive Toxicity is about one million times greater than UCT; with Sr-90+Cs-137, their RT = 1010xUCT; and "The HOTS" RT is ten million billion times greater than U CT! Whew!

In general, radioactivity is much more toxic per gram of a radioactive isotope than chemistry. So if someone is known to be suffering from the chemical toxicity of "Depleted Uranium", they are sure to be suffering from its RT too, probably even more.

Heavy Aerosol (UO3, U2O3 & Cs2O) Scale Heights



 

H0 H0 29 H0

----- H(U-238) > ------ = H(N2+O2)x ------ ------(UO3);

10 20 28 10

2600 - 3280 ft. 1300 - 1640 ft.


29 H0

------ => ------ (U2O3), and

524 20



 
 
 

H0 29 H0

------ = H(Cs-137) = H(N2+O2) x ------- ------(Cs2O),

10 290 10

3280 to 2600ft.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*IU = Insoluble Uranium

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

for 5 km H0 8 km .

(>40N) (<30N)


So these Heavy Radioactive Aerosols of Cs2O and UO3 will behave about the same if pyrophoric T(U+O2->UO3) 2500C. The Cs2O cloud from Chernobyl circled the Earth more than twice! So the UO3 aerosols will arise from the open-air burning of U (on the ways into and out of a tank) on the outsides of tanks penetrated by Uranium weapons. Open air tests onto the ground, rocks, targets, hillsides, etc. would yield UO3 aerosols spread in abundance over the bottom half-mile of the atmosphere above, and for many miles downwind from, the "explosion" site. For those "small" amounts of U-238 per weapon (Recall that > 2.5 Tons (U-238) would yield 1 Ci of radioactivity), say ten lbs of pyrophoric U is vaporized, then "aerosolized" to UO3+U2O3. How many tons of Uranium were burned/vaporized/aerosolized in the open air at the Socorro Test Site (STS) at about (1/500) Ci per 10 lb. U-weapon?

The following Table of estimated average U-contamination (Ci/km2) of the NE quadrant downwind from the Socorro Test Site (STS) shows that amphibia, high-G insects, mammals (Humans) and Max.-G reptiles would suffer serious genetic damage out to 1 to 3 mi. (1.7 to 5 km) from STS, and amphibia with (1010 G 1011) in the Rio Grande Valley would be extincting. Those same amphibian species 6 to 20 mi. downwind would be mutating and showing peculiarities, but those >50 miles away (north of Belen) would be unharmed? except in "Hot Spots" north, east and south of STS.
 
 


*Equals Average global Contamination due to Cs-137 from Chernobyl (Ci/km2) that has decimated global amphibian species since 1986-1988. Conditions inside the heavy border are "not healthy for children and other living beings."

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Thus, careful studies of amphibian species in the Rio Grande Flood Plain between Bernardo, N.M. and San Marcial, N.M. would show a decrease in genetic damage in those amphibia with distance from Socorro with most damage observed between Escondida and San Antonio, N.M. Eventually, a great deal of that dispersed U-238 will be washed into the river and scoured downstream into "Hot Spots", San Acacia, the Elephant Butte Marsh and finally deep Elephant Butte Silts where most of it will contaminate, accumulate and remain to contaminate the lake's food webs "till time and times are done, ...". Don't eat fish, waterfowl, reptiles or amphibia taken from Elephant Butte Res. or from the Rio Grande River south of Bernardo. The Uranium will accumulate in your bodies throughout your lifetimes. This is particularly important for young people.

While the regions within 5 mi. (8 km) of STS are lethally contaminated with U-238 radioactivity, there will be additional deadly "Local Hot Spots" along the river and on the plains beyond 6 to 20 miles from the STS; perhaps as far as the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, part of which is 15 to 55 miles downwind northeast of the STS.

While these estimates and predictions are "reasonable," only careful measurement of surface-contamination (Ci/km2) and "body levels" ( Ci) of U-238 within 50 mi. of Socorro (STS) can define which regions are risky, dangerous or "unhabitable" for Humans, amphibia, other mammals, reptiles, fish, etc. in and around Socorro, 50 mi. north and south along the river and on the hills and plains N, NE and E of Socorro. A good "wind rose" for STS would help.

For "body levels" of U-238 (Ci) in populations occupying lands where Ci = Ci/km2 numerically, like with Chernobyl's Cs-137 contaminations, estimations of C(U-238) in vertebrate cells can be made for various body weights (10, 60, 120, 180 & 240 lbs.) for
 


5x10-4 Ci/km2 0.5, or 5x10-3 Ci 0.5 "body levels",

C = 1015 C = 1017

Wt = 100 lb. Wt = 100 lb.


so 1014 C(U-238) 1017.
 

This range for C(U-238) would damage many species of amphibia, including frogs, and kill those species with the largest genomes. Fig. 12 shows this. For "Hot Spots" of U-238 (0.5 Ci/km2 and 1016 C(U-238) 1017), Humans, mammals, reptiles, frogs and some fish would be severely threatened or killed. These highest concentrations of U-238 will occur in "Hot Spots" and usually within three miles of STS.

Again, only careful measurements (Ci/km2 & Ci) can define "Hot Spots" and "uninhabitable" regions in Iraq; Socorro, N.M.; Kuwait; Saudi Arabia, etc.

The measurements and experiments needed to determine the U-238 contamination levels from STS "tests" must include studies of People, amphibia, reptiles, and birds who live within ten miles (all directions) of STS and within fifty miles in the STS windrose lobe(s).

Because of this multitude of existing sources of radioactive contamination, and future sources (WIPP releases, more "tests" at STS, plus . . .), the NM State Epidemiologist is the ideal person to propose a few new laws designed to protect NM citizens from the growing threat of local to state-wide population decimations [first many amphibian species, then reptiles and People (mammals)] due to ever higher levels of radioactive contamination in, around, downwind and downstream from the STS and other sources of radioactive releases in New Mexico:

(1) Put the "Burden of Proof" on anyone who proposes a radioactive program in New Mexico that their program will not harm people, pets, livestock, or wildlife in New Mexico.

(2) Since victims of radioactive exposure suffer the consequences (cancers, death, generations of genetic damage, etc.) years, decades and generations after exposure; inevitable latent consequences of exposure to victims of radioactivity must be given "legal standing" in the State of New Mexico and in New Mexico Courts.

(3) For large-scale radioactive programs that could decimate the populations or the economies of New Mexico towns, cities, counties, highways or regions; sound scientific studies MUST determine whether a program is approved! Currently, all of our decisions are based exclusively on economic, political and/or corrupt considerations.

I submit my book "Human Survival on a Plutonium-Contaminated Planet" because it contains the derivation of "The Species Survival Equation" which is the basis for Figure 12. Also because it gives detailed arguments on why we all need the three new kinds of laws proposed above to protect us all from the spreading, global radioactive plague that threatens all life on this earth.

Thank You.

Natural Reactors and WIPPu Reactors


The current ratio U-235/U-238 = 7x10-3. That ratio (N5/N8) was about one, or

N(U-238) N(U-235) when the earth was formed.

With that kind of enrichment of U-235, Natural Reactors and A-Bomb fizzles must have been commonplace during the first 3 b.y. of the earth. Then N5/N8<2% finally occurred about

2.4 b.y.a.

With 2% U-235 115%, would there be Natural Reactor conditions satisfied frequently within, or deep within, the earth?

How does this, the "C 40 Pu trench" and 2,600 lbs. of WIPPu, etc. look? Hundreds to Thousands of years of released WIPPu accumulating in layers of wet silts in the Red Bluff Reservoir, Texas are capable of reconcentrating critical masses in a 4m3 sphere11 lbs Pu

(>10-3 gm Pu/cc) to produce a "Pu fizzle" like the "Chelyabinsk-40 Pu-trench" yielded the world's first wet "Natural" 13 kT "Pu fizzle" in 1957-'58. We would be more likely to get the World's first "Natural" Water-Moderated Pu-Reactor, which would form in the wet site of the Red Bluff Reservoir, Texas, and cause some WIPPu to fission into its 300-odd dangerous "fission daughters". Such a configuration would be continuously resupplied with freshly-released WIPPu as older Pu was consumed by fissions.

The Red Bluff Reservoir would become "The Uncontrolled Red Bluff Pu Reactor" that would send the majority of its "fission daughters" 45 miles south through Pecos, Texas; then to the Rio Grande River and the Amstad Reservoir, Del Rio, Texas (Ciudad Acuna, Mexico) and into the Falcon Reservoir*, Brownsville (Matamoro, Mexico) and finally the Golfo de Mexico* and the Atlantic Ocean.

Have the DOE, Westinghouse, the EPA, the U.S. Congress, Sandia Labs, LANL, the AEC or the NRC done the computer models for a Wet "Natural" Pu Reactor there?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*These are two additional dam sites and the Rio Grande Delta where lots of WIPPu can accumulate in silts.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More About WIPP (an Update)


The Inevitable WIPP Breccia Pipe:
 

Even if an unhealed WIPP Breccia Pipe (WIPPipe) does not reach the surface, how far would it have to go up before it:

  • released large amounts of overlying Rusler, Culebra and aquifers (brines and fresh) that would flow down into the WIPPipe that would have direct access to WIPPu, and mobilize all of that "isolated" WIPPu, etc.?
  • it would breach into overlying Karst Formations in times < 2000 years?

  •  
All of these 300 to 3000 year processes would occur well before the EPA's 104 yrs. That matches the fastest Halite "sealing/healing times" of 104 yrs. So the 10 ft. to 30 ft. thick ceiling blocks will bulge and separate from their supports, snapping their restraining bolts, then they will split-off and drop within a year or two.
 

On Saturday, 9 January 1999, new Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said
 

"In my view, WIPP is ready to open. The project has satisfied a number of health conditions at the state and federal level. I believe shipments can go forward."
 

When discussing New Mexico's requirement for a state permit to ship "mixed wastes"* to WIPP, Richardson said:
 

"We want to work with the state . . . not against it."
 

In response to New Mexico concerns about additional hazardous waste shipments to WIPP after Los Alamos ships its 116 "drums" of radioactive-only wastes to WIPP, Richardson assured:
 

"We will ensure that the interests of the state are protected, . . ." and

"It is my view that WIPP is safe."
 

I could fill an encyclopedia with what is wrong and misleading about Richardson's statements, but there is a better-informed critic of WIPP safety than I. Charles M. Loftus, the experienced engineer who was brought in by the DOE years ago "to finish WIPP," has responded to Richardson's comments, and I quote him.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* radioactive wastes and "other hazardous wastes" in the same barrel.
 

In January 1999, Loftus wrote (Loftus' letters have been corrected for "typos"):
 

"To: Bill Richardson, Energy Secretary
 

From: Charles M. Loftus
 

"This morning when I received my Current Argus newspaper, I read the article where you state "The WIPP is ready to open. The project has satisfied a number of health conditions at the state and federal level. I believe shipments can move forward." I am telling you the same as I told the admiral when he was Secretary of Energy in 1987 that the site is not ready to receive waste at this time as it has many health and safety problems that have not been corrected. The problems that I wrote to the secretary of Energy in 1987 still exist today. Each of them are a health and safety problem. When I wrote to the admiral twelve years ago, his assistant called when they received the letter and wanted to know why I had stated in my letter that they had a site and buildings but would not used them for ten years. I told him of some major problems. He in turn told the admiral, the Secretary of Energy, the same. He called me and asked for some major problems, which I told him about. He slammed down the phone, flew to Carlsbad overnight, and fired the supervisors at the site for not telling him about these problems.
 

"I have told the admiral, Hazel O'Leary, who was Secretary of Energy, Mr. Peña and now you Mr. Richardson of these health and safety problems. I will be forwarding to you the letters I sent to them and the faxes to the President and Vice President about these problems. At this time, I am only going into one problem. As you know, the Waste Handling Building is designed to operate in negative pressure in case of a spill or accident in the building so the contamination would be contained in the building. The original design had airlocks for the trucks to drive into so they could unload their hazardous and radioactive cargo in the building. In 1986 when I arrived to work for the Corp of Engineers as acting Project Engineer, we the Corp and DOE and Westinghouse already knew the airlocks were too small to handle the trucks and large containers. It was suggested that the airlocks be removed and one large airlock built parallel to the building so the trucks could be unloaded into the negative pressure area of the Waste Handling Building; this has never been done. Their method of correcting this problem was to buy a large forklift truck and unload the containers off the trucks in the yard outside of the building with no protection from radiation or contamination if they have an accident when unloading the cargo. As you can see, this alone is a major health and safety problem which could contaminate the site and surrounding areas. I firmly believe, until this problem is taken care of that no waste should be allowed to be shipped to the site.
 
 
 

"I would like you and the President and the Vice President and the Speaker of the House to come to Carlsbad and take my tour, so I can show you all of the other health and safety problems on the site. I want no DOE, Westinghouse, or any other contractors on site to be on this tour as I want to show you, as I stated above, all of the health and safety problems and how they could be corrected. DOE and the contractors do not want you or congress to know of these problems, because it would take another five, possibly ten years of construction to correct them. They do not want to go to congress at this time and ask for a large sum of money to do what is necessary for the safety of all people on the site and the State of New Mexico.
 

"I close again by stating the WIPP Site is not ready to receive any waste at this time. Also, the local newspaper and local radio station have blackballed us so that we can not print an answer to your statements in the paper. This is not free press or free speech. I think the people of Carlsbad and the State of New Mexico, the Attorney General, the Governor, and all the Senators and Congressmen from the state of New Mexico should be told of these problems."
 

"Sincerely,
 

Charles M. Loftus

Retired Corp of Engineers
 

cc: Bill Clinton, President

Al Gore, Vice President

Speaker of the House"
 
 
 
 
 

As you can see, it was clear to Mr. Loftus that WIPP was not ready to open in January 1999. Then in February 1999, Mr. Loftus sent Richardson a followup letter, which I have edited for brevity:
 
 
 

"My name is Charles M. Loftus, for you people who don't know who I am. Ten years ago, I was acting Project Engineer for the U.S. Army Corp Engineers at the WIPP site. I was brought over from California to make sure the site was completed per plans and specifications."
 

"I retired shortly after Westinghouse and DOE took over the site, and at this time the Admiral who was Secretary of Energy has made the statement that the site was ready to open and receive waste. I wrote the Admiral a letter telling him that he had a site and buildings that he would not use for ten years. The next morning, my home phone rang and it was the assistant Secretary of Energy wanting to know what I knew about the site that he did not know. I told him I have a list of 135 changes that Westinghouse and DOE told me that they had to have done before the site could open. About 15 minutes later, the phone rang again and it was the Admiral, the Secretary of Energy. He said to me 'We have made our inspections and couldn't find anything wrong with the site.' I told him, 'That's right sir. You did hold your inspections, but you didn't know what they hell you're looking for.' And that's when I told the man about the 30 major changes that had to be made before the site could open and that was the end of our conversation.
 

The next morning, down at the Best Western Sevens, the people sitting in the restaurant in the front of the building could hear him yelling and screaming at the personnel who were in charge of running the WIPP site. He immediately fired all of the personnel who were in charge of the WIPP site and brought new people in who were from Hanford, Washington to run the site. They started to make the repairs and the changes that had to be made to make the site safe to operate. I went to the site at about six months intervals and kept the Admiral advised on how the changes were coming."
 

"Up until two years ago, the WIPP site could not pass safety tests held by many inspection groups who came to town to inspect the site. They couldn't pass the electrical code until about a year and a half ago. But all along they kept saying we're ready, give us the waste we're ready to operate. In my first conversation with the Admiral ten years ago, I mentioned to him that the big steel doors that they had designed to seal off the rooms after they had placed the waste would not work.
 

"Hazel O'Leary, when she was in town about 2 years ago, called me aside and said, 'Charlie, I want you to know that all of the scientists and all of the big engineers have agreed to what you told them ten years ago, that the metal doors will not work.' Hazel O'Leary asked Mr. Dials to come up with a solution to this problem and that I was supposed to go and talk to Mr. Dials about the same. Which I did. He showed me that they had designed a method of closing the rooms off by using large slices of salt blocks, concrete and salt blocks. Hazel O'Leary said Mr. Dials would let me know when to test to see if this would work, when it would be held, and what the conclusion was. I was never notified if or when the test was to run, but he did call me one time and told me a bunch of numbers that came up at the completion of the test and that in theory the salt blocks and the concrete and salt blocks would seal the rooms after the waste had been put in the rooms.
 

"All solutions to this problem have only been in theory and never tested because without bringing waste to the site, and filling a room and back filling with salt, and closing with the salt blocks and concrete, and waiting for the ceilings to collapse, which in turn smash the containers filled with the radioactive material into the salt. We do not know that the pressure build up when the ceilings collapse will blow the salt blocks and concrete out just like the cork of a champagne bottle under pressure. And until this test is run they should not open the WIPP site."
 

"This is a follow up to the first fax sent in January 1997. In this fax I will list all of the major design problems that we will talk about at this time.
 

"1) Air Locks
 

In the design of the waste handling building the Air Locks were to be used to bring the canisters containing the waste into the building to be unloaded in a safe environment, but when they designed the Trupact containers and the large truck to carry same, it was discovered that the Air Locks were too small to allow the trucks to enter the building to be safely unloaded. The answer to this problem instead of building bigger Air Locks they bought a 40-ton fork-lift to unload Trupact containers outside the building and bring them into the building through the Air Locks with the fork-lift."
 

"When I mentioned concrete walls they say, 'The public is not going to wait for us to put up concrete walls.' But, I always say, 'You've had eleven years to put up concrete walls.' They say, 'Radiation doesn't require concrete walls.' I say, 'Contamination does require concrete walls.' Their next comment is, 'We don't know why you're so worried about the exterior metal siding. It is the same type used on all commercial buildings.' But I say, 'This is, and I repeat, this is not a commercial building. This is a nuclear waste handling building and as such should have concrete walls on the exterior for safety and contamination reasons.' Also, to answer number one: Air Locks, I have suggested many times when you build your concrete walls you build a large concrete Air Lock parallel to the building so you can bring the trucks and Trupact container into the Air Lock and safely be unloaded into the building instead of unloading them out in the yard with the fork-lift truck. This completes design problems in the CH area.
 

"2) RH area.
 

We have the same condition with all walls and floors in the entire RH area where we have raw material behind all equipment on the side walls and the floors. When you stand in the RH area with your back to the interior walls you have the same metal siding that we talked about the CH area except that it is a much larger problem here because it could be radiation and contamination both in this area."
 

"3) Hot Cell.
 

For some unknown reason, the Hot Cell was designed on the third floor level instead of on the receiving level. This creates many, many problems which have yet been solved. In order to get anything into the Hot Cell, the large concrete door has to be opened, material put into the receiving bay, close the big door, remove the concrete plug from the Hot Cell area, and raise the material from the receiving bay to the Hot Cell area. The Hot Cell itself is supposed to be a room contained with concrete walls with four sides, concrete ceiling, and concrete floors. But for some reason, the floors of this Hot Cell are about 1/3 concrete, 1/3 metal plates, and 1/3 metal gates with openings. The worst part is the areas directly in front of the oil field windows, where the operator works the manipulator to handle radioactive material, has the grates in the floor in this area; so any contamination released automatically contaminates floors below. All walls and ceiling areas also have nuclear coating problems like the CH area has, raw material behind everything behind the walls."
 

"4) When you go down the stairwell from the RH receiving area, you're about five to six floors below the Hot Cell area (all types of work rooms in this area). When you stand in these rooms and look up again you have steel grating that you can see three to four stories up from this room which should be concrete rooms that should be completely sealed off for contamination reasons. Again we have the same conditions in all these rooms on the nuclear coated walls.
 

5) Underground area. I am not a scientist or underground specialist so I only have two problems. One, which is whether the seals on the rooms will hold after they fill the rooms with the drums, the backfill, and the ceilings collapse whether the pressure will be too great for the salt blocks to remain in place. I think they should think of a temporary support system to hold the salt blocks in place until the ceilings collapse. Then after about 48 hours they can remove them and use them the next time on the next room if this system works.
 

The second problem, and as far as I know nobody has addressed it, is when the ceiling collapses, the void left in the area above the room between the collapsed ceiling and the remaining material should be filled with a solid material so that many years down stream we don't have the material continually dropping until it reaches the surface and causes a large depression above each room area where the barrels are stored which could gather water in future years and possibly give the water a source to the mine level. I think some time should be spent checking in to this.
 

6) We now leave the waste handling building and go to the filter building. If there was an accident in the mine all the air from the mine would go through the HEPA filter system in the filter building, which is a series of all different kind of screens to catch contaminates which would not be released into the environment. It is a very good system except once you have a mine accident at the present time, they have no way to decontaminate and change the filters out so that it can be used in case of another mine accident."
 

"They need to design a system with a quick closing valve right next to the filter system so they can decontaminate the series of rooms which contain the filters and have all the filters automatically removed through the top of the areas between the series of filter rooms. This way they can decontaminate all the rooms and change the filters in a short time and be ready to be back in operation."
 

"I am getting too old and too tired to fight this problem on my own anymore. My options are to pass the problems to you, or to release the information in these faxes through the WEB site and to all TV stations, newspapers, and radio stations in the United States and the World. I have kept this information confidential to only those who were involved with the WIPP site for the last eleven years, and since they are now talking about opening the site, it is time. I'm sorry to say, but I have no alternative but to release this information to the public.
 

I am not against the WIPP site, I just want the site, when it does open, to be safe for the employees of the WIPP site, the citizens of New Mexico, the people of the United States and the rest of the World.
 

C. M. Loftus"
 
 
 

Then on 15 March 1999 he wrote:
 

March 15, 1999
 

TO: Secretary of Energy

Mr. Bill Richardson
 

FROM: Charles M. Loftus

1117 West Ash Street

Carlsbad, New Mexico 88220
 

I am writing to you again about the WIPP site to bring you up to date on the hearings in Carlsbad, New Mexico on March 9, 1999, at which time I made the following statements to the Hearing Officer from Santa Fe in regards to getting a permit to bring pipe barrels and mixed waste to the WIPP site.
 

First, I told him no matter what the engineers, scientists, DOE, or Westinghouse said, the site still had many safety problems and until they are corrected no waste of any kind should be allowed on the site.

  • As you know, I have always stated that you have to have air locks large enough to get the trucks into the waste handling building to unload the cannisters and cargo from the trucks. This has never been done. As you probably know, they have opted to buy large forklift trucks to unload the cannisters outside the building and bring them in through the undersized air locks. This is not a safe situation and should never be used to unload the trucks.

  •  
  • It has been two years or longer, when they got their EPA permit, and at that time they said they were ready to receive waste and there were no safety problems on the site whatsoever. As I told the hearing officer here we are having a debate on whether to issue a permit to bring mixed waste and pipe barrels to the WIPP site when they (DOE) have no way to even close the rooms after they put the barrels and backfill in as all their previous efforts have failed. They have drawn up a new plan to do this, but they have not even gotten a permit to use it. I told them I want a copy of the plan and specifications of this new system so that I could see if it is going to fail like I told them the last two would.

  •  
  • I have a big problem with this permit for mixed waste and pipe barrels that somebody dreamed up in Albuquerque that they would meet the criteria to be deposited at the WIPP site. In all the ten years that I went to the EPA hearings, there was no mention of mixed waste or pipe barrels in any of the calculations that would show gas, heat, and radiation from the mine when you mix all three of these types of waste in the mine. We did a five-year test to find out what kind of readings the clothing barrels would give us. We now need a five year test on a mixture of pipe barrels, mixed waste, and clothing barrels, so that we do not have a mixture of explosive materials at the WIPP site, which could be a great disaster. Until these tests are run, I again ask you as I did the Secretary of Energy in 1987, to do the same as he did and say no waste to the site until we can prove to people in New Mexico, the people of the United States, and the leaders of the world that the WIPP site is safe at this time.

  •  
I know you are up to your eyebrows in the China spy situation at the Los Alamos labs, but I think you should take the time to do what is right at the WIPP site and that is like I asked for you and you alone to state that no waste will go to the WIPP site until the test of the three components are mixed together and we know what the heat, the gas, and the radiation levels are to see if they still meet the required levels in the original EPA permit.
 

P.S. Along with this, I will send a list of other safety violations at the site.
 

Sincerely,
 

Charles M. Loftus
 

cc: President, Bill Clinton

Vice President, Al Gore

Speaker of the House"
 
 
 

LIST TO DISCUSS
 

  • Concrete exterior walls - CH & RH
  • Nuclear coatings of floors
  • Airlocks - why are you going to unload canisters outside of the building
  • Filter room in waste handling building - openings in floor
  • Airlock on railroad door
  • Sysstem to bring railcars in and out of building
  • Hot cell
  • Metal plates on water troughs
  • Filter building
  • Decontamination station
  • How to change filters without contaminating area
  • Pipe barrels
  • Mixed waste"
Again, it is clear that Mr. Loftus remained convinced that it was not safe to open and operate WIPP when the first truck arrived from Los Alamos around 4 A.M. 26 March 1999.
 

Finally, on 29 March 1999, Mr. Loftus wrote:
 

"March 29, 1999
 

To: Secretary of Energy, Bill Richardson
 

From: Charles M. Loftus

117 West Ash Street

Carlsbad, New Mexico 88220
 

I am writing you about the WIPP site to bring you up to date on the hearings in Santa Fe, New Mexico where I gave my testimony on March 25, 1999.
 

  • When we were on our tour with the hearing officer, scientists and geologists on March 8, 1999, the following statement was made by one of the DOE personnel in charge of the tour. While in the Waste Handling Building, the statement was made that they will never have to worry about contamination or decontamination because they will never open a barrel on this site. So, I sir, being an old navy man, in my mind I said, "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead," and this is just what I did. I started by telling them that this statement is true, because at this time the way DOE is using the facility, they will never open a barrel. Then sir, I went back to when congress allotted the money to build the site and described in detail how the site was to be use. I told them the rooms that were to be used to handle the corroded barrels and the hot cell was to be used to handle leaky barrels, due to DOE not wanting to go to congress to ask for X number of millions of dollars to correct design and safety problems, all of their supervisors since 1987 would be liable to perjury because they had said the site was safe to receive waste (not only to me, but to the president, the vice president, secretary of energy, congress, the people of the United States, and all the leaders of the world), that this is a safe way to deposit the nuclear waste.

  •  
  • The DOE testimony in Santa Fe was smoke, mirrors, and theory, because they themselves admitted they had no way to compare the site to any other because this has never been done before. The rebuttal testimony was done by doctors in geology, science and other fields who had 30 years or more experience, each in salt mining throughout the world. They sir, told DOE, not once, but twice that panel one and room seven where you now have waste stored should be condemned and no personnel be allowed to enter this area. The reason for this is the roofs in panel one and roof seven have already had a roof failure. They sag about three feet in the center. The original rock bolts have been sheared off. New and stronger rock bolts and heavy cable mesh have been installed to hold the failed roof up so they could use this panel and these rooms. I, sir, on my tour of March 8, 1999, also observed this same condition.The roof is fractured on both sides. The entire length of pane one and room seven, you can see where the rock bolts have fractured due to the failure of the roof and every once in a while, you can hear a loud ping sound, which was another roof bolt failure. The hair on the back of my neck stood up and all I wanted to do was get out of there. Sir, I am sure that if you would come to the site and stand at the end of panel one and look at the condition of the roof, that your hair would curl on the back of your neck too, and you would wonder, "For God's sake, why are these people at DOE having their people work under these unsafe conditions."

  •  
  • You and the WIPP site have had your day on television and newspapers throughout the world, "WIPP is open and the first shipment arrived on Friday morning, March 26, 1999." But God forbid, the next headline you read could be, "National Disaster! Roof cave in at WIPP site, X number of employees killed in accident. Nuclear barrels of waste crushed with no room closures in place. The Mine Was Evacuated, Site was evacuated. Site is closed until DOE can figure out how to clean up their mess just because they wanted to use panel one and room seven to put their waste in." They were told this roof could fall; it could happen at any moment. Again, I repeat, they said that panel one and room seven should be closed and no personnel allowed to enter these areas.

  •  
  • I beg of you sir, come to Carlsbad and see this condition yourself. Do not rely on what DOE personnel in Carlsbad are telling you. One look and I am sure you will tell them to get the waste they have already put in room seven out of that dangerous condition, bring it back to the waste handling building, and no waste be delivered to the site until panel two is excavated and a new room is dug out, so that we can safely put men and waste in a room where the roof could not fall at any time.

  •  
  • I am telling you this to say you will be as responsible for this disaster, if it happens, as your DOE people in the Carlsbad office. I sir, went to the hearings in Santa Fe after DOE did a lot of arguing that I should not be able to make statements at this hearing. But, as I said above, my testimony was deemed as important as all the doctors, scientists, and geologists that came to talk about the WIPP site in rebuttal to DOE's presentation.

 
  • Again, I say, God forbid, that the mentioned above does not happen, but I will close now by saying; please, immediately, get a report of all testimonies in regards to the WIPP site at the Santa Fe hearing now. Do not wait until the hearing officer makes his decision because by that time the above headline could be in every newspaper and television in the world.

  •  
P.S. I also told them of all the safety problems, and that by using the WIPP site the way DOE now intends to use it, they can only do about one-third of what the site was designed to do, which I have described in the numerous faxes of my letters to the president, vice president, and speaker of the house.
 

Charles M. Loftus
 

cc: President, Bill Clinton

Vice President, Al Gore

Speaker of the House"
 
 
 

In view of the powerful and compelling nature of Charles Loftus' testimonies, I conclude his resumé here so that you can make your own evaluation of his credibility as a witness.
 
 

RESUME


Charles M. Loftus March 21, 1999

1117 West Ash Street

Carlsbad, New Mexico 88220

Telephone (505) 885-3886

Fax (505) 887-5937
 

1939 - While going to trade school, my father fell and got hurt and could not support the family, and since I was going to trade school, the weeks that I was going to be in shop I was allowed to go and work with Blum Welden Engineering Company in Pittsburgh as instrument man on a survey crew on dams and locks on the Ohio River, coal mine survey, underground and strip mining, and private surveys as needed from 1939 to 1942.
 

In March 1942, I entered into the U.S. Navy and worked in engine rooms and boiler rooms on aircraft carriers. One sunk, the other was damaged to the extent that a crew of 4500 and only 704 brought the ship back to the states. I transferred to the Franklin Delanor Roosevelt supercarrier, but never commissioned due to the end of the war. I was discharged on November 5, 1945.
 

I returned home to Pittsburgh on November 5, 1945. I took a GS corp test to go to work for the city of Pittsburgh in the planning department and public works department. I was hired as engineering tech in 1946. I worked from 1946 to 1948 on all projects connected with public works in the city of Pittsburgh.
 

In 1948, due to the Korea war, I went back to work for the government as a civil service employee at Bangor ammunition depot in Bangor, Washington in the surveillance lab, testing all powder and shells from 22 caliber pistols to 16 inch shells for the battle wagons. In all the shells from 5 inch to 16 inch, I had to change all the primers and fuses. On the powder cases, I had to restring due to the ether eating the leather laces on the powder cases, so that when we shipped shells and powder bags to the ships to be used, everything would be okay; this was from 1948 to 1951.
 

In 1951, I transferred to Kodiak, Alaska on a naval airstation, again, working as a civil service employee in the power plant as engine man on lower deck, starting and stopping all machinery needed to put steam turbines online in the power plant to produce electricity. I made necessary repairs on boilers and machinery as required. While working at the power plant, I took ICS courses, highway engineering, and civil engineering, which the government paid for such courses to better ourselves. I worked from 1951 to 1956.
 

In 1956, I went to work for Washington state highway building bridges, freeways, tunnels, and everything needed to build freeway systems from Portland Oregon to the Canadian border; now known as Interstate 5. I worked on two floating bridges, the Evergreen Floating Bridge, and the Hood Canal Floating Bridge. I also built major interchanges as needed. I built freeways from Seattle to Ellensburg, over the mountains, and from Ellensburg to Yakima, Washington, and then from Yakima to Tricities. I worked from 1956 to 1975 with the highway department.
 

In 1975, I went to work again as a civil service employee with the government as IWP programmer at Mountain Home Airforce Base in Idaho. The IWP programmer is responsible to make sure the entire base is kept running, including the planes flying as needed for our national defense, as it was headquarters for the B-52 bombers of the SAC. My job as IWP programmer was to keep everybody on the base and employed, which included our own railroad, powerhouse, waterwells, garbage dump, all public works employees, and the big job of keeping the hangers and runways in operation so the planes could carry out their missions. I worked there from 1975 to 1978.
 

In 1978, I went to Hawthorne, Nevada, again, to work in power plants for the Naval Ammunition Depot in Hawthorne, Nevada, where we produced electricity and steam to keep the entire base in operation. I only stayed there about a year, form 1978 to 1979. The base was contracted out and all civil service employees were relieved of duties.
 

In 1979, I transferred to Hebo, Oregon to work for the Forest Service doing all surveys necessary for timber contracts from 1979 to 1980.
 

In 1980, I transferred to Springerville, Oregon, again working for the Forest Service in conjunction with timber sales. Also in this position, I had summertime college employees under my supervision to train them how to survey and how to lay out timber sales from 1980 to 1981.
 

In 1981, I went to work as facility engineer in Long Beach Naval Supply Station. I was in charge of all buildings, docks, dry docks, San Pedro Fuel Pier and Tank Farm, U.S. Navy housing and the hospital, to keep all in operation from 1981 to 1982.
 

In 1982, I transferred over to the engineering department in the Long Beach Naval Ship Yard. I had responsibilities for all surveying and engineering problems in the shipyard and public housing and the naval hospital. In this position, I was also responsible for taking elevation readings in the entire Long Beach peninsula, Long Beach harbor, San Pedro Harbor, and the Long Beach Navy Supply and Navy shipyard. What was happening was in the shipyard and all the above mentioned areas, the oil wells surrounding the area were pumping oil out from under the above mentioned areas by what is called slant well pumping, which in turn, all the above areas were slowly descending below sea level. My job was to notify pumping stations in the surrounding area that was pumping sea water to displace oil that was being pumped out to keep the entire area on an even plane. When it came time to check the dry docks, I had to take hydrostatic pressure readings to make sure the dry docks would not pop up like corks. We had relief valves in the dry docks to open to relieve the pressure to keep everything balanced out. In 1982, I was given the job to complete the battleship New Jersey, so it could be commissioned in December 28, 1982. When the ship was commissioned, I was responsible for President Reagan, the White House staff, all admirals, generals, and dignitaries from all around the world, the congressmen, senators, and honored guests. The ceremony consisted of 10,000 spectators, TV camera men from the states and around the world, newspaper reporters from same, in order for this commissioning ceremony to be held, I worked with the White House staff, Secret Service, the FBI, underwater demolition teams to make sure that the battle ship and the president would be safe when we held the ceremony.
 

In 1984, I transferred to the Corp of Engineers to work as construction representative at Fort Erwin in California. The job included 33 miles of roads, 13 bridges, 30 some miles of flood control, all new gas lines on the base and housing areas, new commissary, additions to the hospital, new BOQ's, new bowling alley, and other projects as needed.
 

In the later part of 1986, I was transferred to the WIPP site, quality control section, to finish the site according to plans and specifications. I was in charge of all nuclear coatings on the walls and floors of the Waste Handling Building and Filter Building, and all projects included to complete the site. I held all preliminary inspections with DOE, Westinghouse supervisors and designers, planners and myself. I went through the Waste Handling Building and Filter Building, room by room, and asked DOE and Westinghouse to give me a list of the things they needed to safely operate the site. When it came time for final inspections, Westinghouse and DOE would not go with me on the final inspections, because they were not given items that were not on the plans and I could not at that time have the contractor give it to them, so I and the contractor, the planners, the designers, their safety engineer, and their inspector held the final inspection. All areas were found to comply with plans and specifications and I, as representative for the Corp of Engineers signed off on the Waste Handling Building and the Filter Building at which time, knowing DOE and Westinghouse would want to get into the building to put things in the mine below, I had the contractor chain and lock all the doors on the Waste Handling Building and Filter Building until Westinghouse and DOE would sign below my name. At which time, the locks and chains were removed and the site was turned over to Westinghouse and DOE.
 

In 1987, when the Secretary of Energy came to inspect the site, he wrote in the Carlsbad newspaper in big headlines, Site Ready to Receive Waste. I immediately sent him a letter and told him he had a site and buildings that he would not use for ten years. My telephone rang in the morning, the assistant secretary of energy said, "I received your letter," and he stated that the site had been inspected and it was ready to receive waste and wanted to know what I knew. I told him I had a list of items that DOE and Westinghouse had given me on my preliminary inspections. I read him a few items on the list. He hung up. A few minutes later, the Secretary of Energy called and said, Mr. Loftus, I understand you have a list of safety problems. He asked me for ten major problems, which I had given him over the phone. At which time, he hung up the phone, flew in here over night, fired some supervisors at the site and brought in his own people to finish the site. So, since 1987 to 1999, I have made a number of tours of the site. Each time noting whether or not they have corrected the safety problems. I have written many letters to the president, vice president, secretary of energy, speaker of the house, congressmen and senators in regards to these problems, and I am now going to give rebuttal statements at the Santa Fe hearings when I am called to do so.
 

Charles M. Loftus

Retired Corp of Engineers

It is clear that the testimony of Charles M. Loftus, and of many other expert witnesses have "put the DOE's feet to the fire." If these testimonies do not persuade Secretary Bill Richardson and the DOE to stop WIPP operations, and to make the significant changes called for by Loftus and other experts, they will have written their own epitaph!!! In addition, they will have insured that Clinton's dark paragraph in history books: "The U.S. President who opened WIPP and KILLED THE WORLD" is in bold type and is darker than Hitler's, Saddam's and Maloshevic's.

"Healing" occurs way too slowly to seal these ceiling blocks or to seal the 300 to 3000 year WIPP Breccia Pipe before copious waterflows cascaded down into WIPPu. Where would all of that water/brine go??? Up and out thru what shafts? What Pecos and Rio Grande Rivers, etc.? See "the book".

Warm Halite (T>200C) is famous for its plastic "healing and sealing" properties, but in WIPP the temperature of the "CH wastes" is not supposed to reach such high temperatures. Further, the fact that large ceiling blocks in WIPP rooms sag, fracture, separate then fall to the floor means that plastic Halite flows occur far too slowly for any "healing/sealing" to occur in less than 10,000 years. By then, a great deal of WIPPu-migration into the Pecos River will have occurred, and it won't matter if WIPP Halite heals/seals.
 


The "Gnome" Project: the 1963 Underground Pu-bomb "Test"

Detonation in Halite a few miles Southeast of WIPP:


The "Gnome Shot" has given us a perfect opportunity to study the hydrologies and the migration and accumulation times and reaches of Pu, Sr, Cs, etc. radioisotopes in natural halite under WIPP-like conditions. Further, thermomigration* of brine inclusions in natural halite can be observed directly and applied to WIPP. These studies would give us priceless, real, natural data to use for predicting these same effects for Radioactive Pu, Sr, Cs, etc. stored in WIPP.

So how did the DOE use the incomparable "Gnome" resource in its million-page WIPP Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)? The DOE never mentioned "the Gnome Project" in any WIPP EIS!!! Further, the DOE didn't use any of the crucial data available at the Gnome site in any of their studies of WIPP or of its radioisotopes.

I am almost at a loss for words!!! The degrees of deception, treachery, betrayal, lawlessness and irresponsibility practiced by the DOE throughout the WIPP program are beyond apt characterization. Is it any wonder that I use the word TREASON in my attempt to characterize the DOE's behavior?

So I started a Terminal Fast to stop WIPP on 25 March 1999. If WIPP remains open and is still operating on 1 January 2000, it will be over my dead body!!!
 
 
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* "Thermomigration" is the process that describes the movement of all water inclusions toward a heat source in halite.

And What Does the 21st Century Promise? besides "Promises, Promises, ..."


With all of the attention given to radioactive threats to Human Survival, one could get the idea that there are no other large-scale threats to Human Survival expected on Earth during the 21st Century.

Nothing could be farther from the truth. There is a surprisingly large number of global threats that will reach crisis proportions during the next 15 to 500 years (Biotechnologies, PCB's, Ozone, CFC's, Toxic Heavy Metals, Dioxin, HIV, DDT, synergy, etc.). The newest overriding global threat to Human health, safety and stability is the 25-year 1f increase in the average global temperature (Figure 14). Global heating will cause large-scale migrations of all life-types away from rising global sea levels, which could become catastrophic if a significant fraction of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) went into the sea quickly.

In 1995, a large ice-island (90 mi. x 30 mi.) broke off the "Larsen Ice Shelf", the northern-most "ice shelf" in Antarctica, disintegrated. With global heating, the maximum temperature increases are expected at the poles, so that is where we can expect to see the first and greatest global heating effects. The average temperature at the poles has increase 4f in the last 25 years, and thinning of the "Greenland Ice Sheet" has reached 30% in places. These are all conspicuous, early manifestations of Global Warming (regardless of what is causing it). You can see in Figure 14 that the Global heating has just started.

The rate of global temperature increase has been maximum for each of the last seven years, while the global mean temperature increased by 1f during the last 30 years. Thus, we optimists can expect the annual global temperature increases to maximize during the next 20 years (that would involve at least one more 1f increase in the global mean temperature), then the temperature would peak at 1f higher yet, after an additional 30 years. That's a net 3f increase in the global mean temperature and a 12f increase in polar temperatures; that's almost a 7f increase in polar mean temperature during the period 1968 to 2050, or so. If a 2C (4f) increase causes a large island of the disintegrating "Larsen Ice Shelf" to break away by 1995, what will the additional 6C increase in the Antarctic mean temperature bring to Antarctica during the period between 1995 and 2050? Figure 15 shows Antarctica, the "Larsen Ice Shelf" (), the "Ross Ice Shelf" () and the "Edith Ronne Ice Shelf (); plus the subice volcano (V), between and , which is on the inland edge of the "suspected Rift Trench" ( R). Four or five rapidly-flowing "Ice Streams" (0.7 km/y) originate in these heated regions (V & R) and carry 500 km3 of once-inland ice into the "Ross Ice Shelf" , each year. At that rate, one tenth (1/10) of the WAIS would move into the "Ross Sea" and raise sea level by one half of a millimeter (½ mm-1/500 inch) per year for 1333 years for a total of 2 feet. That's slow enough to allow life forms to adjust, and the inland migration will occur, sometimes violently, during that 1333+ years. More rapid ice movements are considered later.

Note that ice that breaks away from an ice shelf doe not change sea level because shelf ice is already afloat on the sea. It is when ice resting on the Antarctic continent moves into the sea that sea level will rise.


 
 


 
 
 If you don't appreciate the impacts of Global Heating on the history of radioactivity on the Earth, in the 21st century, the network of interactions between the two has escaped you. Think about what energy source(s) would replace the CO2-producing fossil fuel energy sources, etc.

These kinds of futures for humans on Earth make human survival on the nearly Pu-free Moon and Mars increasingly attractive and, possibly, our only alternatives. Martian and Lunar Astronauts should be married male-female pairs. If such a migration comes let us not repeat our contaminated, corrupt "business as usual" societies there.

Little or no change is expected in average equatorial temperatures during the coming global heating episode, if Greenhouse Gases are indeed the main cause of global heating.

While Global Heating does not threaten Human Survival directly, it does promise to increase global stress (demographic, economic, political, legal, social and environmental) and provide a global context that is conducive to the choreographed outbreak of terrorism, WARS, mass migrations and nuclear reactor disasters.

The fruitless effort to limit the spread of nuclear weapons and technologies will be expressed as nuclear attacks by globally-immature, nuclear-capable and critically-distressed nations during the coming decades. The global spread of nuclear weapons has been given an enormous boost by the political and economic chaos, famine and corruption that have gripped Russia since 1986 (Chernobyl, economic disaster and the end of "the Cold War").

The Global Population Bomb continues to increase global stresses exponentially throughout the "undeveloped world." China has done a spectacular job of pulling themselves out of that uncontrolled morass; and the Latin, African and Indian nations need to follow suit if the world is to escape the ravages of the Global Population Bomb in the 21st century.

Three of the direct consequences of the Global Population Bomb are: (1) Increasing frequencies and magnitudes of plagues, epidemics, etc.; (2) Increasing Erosion of Global Environmental Quality by large toxic chemical and radioactive releases; and (3) the Rapine Exploitation of the Earth's Natural Resources (Fresh, Clear Water; Lake and Ocean Fish; "Old Growth" Woods; large Whales; Wilderness; Clean Air, Fertile Soil; the World's Great Predators; Elephants; Rhinos; etc., etc., etc.).

Now throw in another Chernobyl, or two, or ..., and the prospects for Human Survival in the 21st Century grow ever-dimmer.

Insatiable, dedicated Greed in an Unbridled Capitalism has brought the world to this Global Abyss!, and only a radical, new paradigm can help free us from this "business as usual" trap!

"Trust the System", indeed!

The 21st Century, "Our Trial by Radioactive Fire (and Ice?)"


"Frontline" (PBS) tells us that the greatest threat to the health and safety of U.S. citizens is a terrorist attack on a large city with biological weapons (ebola, smallpox, anthrax, ...).

An ADM Industries commercial tells us that "... feeding the people of the world in the 21st century is the biggest problem facing the world today."

Neither point of view reflects any grasp of the significance of the unprecedented radioactive releases from Chernobyl IV in 1986 and the 450 nuclear reactors operating on earth today. The last decade of global amphibian extinctions is but a prelude to the next century of radioactive mass extinctions of other vertebrates that the Next Chernobyl will cause. Well, that's bad enough, but the worst of that radioactive threat is that additional Chernobyl-like nuclear disasters will occur before 2100 AD.

"Murphy's Third Law" (Murphy III), "if something can screw-up, it will!" was a primary operator in causing the Chernobyl Disaster; and . . .

How many more Chernobyl-like releases of radioactivity (>108 Ci) are likely to occur during the 21st century (1998-2098 AD)? If we ignore "Murphy III", that possibility can be estimated from an experience to date: Since 1952, the world has experienced two such large scale nuclear reactor disasters, TMI-II and Chernobyl, during about 3800 reactor years of operation. With TMI II, we lucked-out because it had been on-line for less than 3 months when it exploded, and its inventory of "HOTS" had not yet built up to the meltdown levels that resided in Chernobyl after more than 2 years of operation. So we can look forward to one or two disastrous Chernobyl-like nuclear releases for each 5000 reactor years or so of experience. "The Table" (p. 43) shows the number of reactor years of experience and the number of predictable Chernobyl-like disasters as a function of the number of operating nuclear reactors during the 21st century.

"The Table" (p. 43) makes it clear that only a new "failsafe" design for nuclear reactors will permit nuclear power to be a significant future energy source for the Earth. Continuing to operate the world's 450 largest nuclear power reactors even 25 more years would yield one or two Chernobyl-size radioactive releases. One or two explosive releases of 80 million Ci. of Sr-90+Cs-137 and 50+ lbs. of Pu before the year 2025 would extinguish all humans from the Earth before 2100 AD! Even 30 reactors could not operate for more than 30 or 40 years without running a high risk (>50-50) of another nuclear disaster!

So by far the biggest problem facing the world today is how to prevent another disastrous Chernobyl-like release of radioactivity. That means that we must reduce the number of operating nuclear reactors on Earth to 200 by 2015 AD and to 30 by 2050 AD, or we take a real risk of human extinction before 2100 AD!

It would be a pity (indeed, a tragedy) if these warnings were not heeded, and humanity lived-out one of our worst-case scenarios during the 21st century. One of those, powered by "Murphy III", follows.

"Murphy III" in Action: A Real Doomsday Scenario


As you might guess, one aspect of this "Doomsday Scenario" is the "high-tech" Radioactive Inventory in the world's operating reactor "fuel rods" and in "spent fuel rods," wherever they may be. Another is a traditional natural catastrophe (Abrupt elevations of sea level) that had normally produced global species, genus and family extinctions, but not global extinction of life!!! But there are a couple of ways to elevate sea level quickly; one is to move the WAIS promptly into the sea during the Hot 21st Century. This is where "Murphy III" comes into play.

First, let me set the "Murphy III" context in which the onset of the 21st century will occur:

  • All of the threatening issues, Laws, Bombs, Disasters, habits, etc. raised in these two volumes.
  • All of the problems that grows out of the "Y2K computer problem."
  • Combinations of (1) and (2) worldwide.
  • During the next 4 years (1999-2003 incl.) The solar system will experience a Maximum of Solar Activity (Fused Circuits, Radio/Radar interference, fried satellites, electronic glitches & gremlins, sporadic Arctic & Antarctic heating by Solar Mass Ejections, etc., etc., etc.)
  • Combinations of (3) and (4) for the next 4 years+.
  • The combination of the natural 100,000 year periodic global warming with "Greenhouse Global Warming" due to atmospheric CO2, H2O, CFC's, volatile hydrocarbons, etc. released by humans.
  • At this time, when all of the above are getting worse with time, or are peaking now/soon, and are global; the health and survival of the biosystem require that specific global hazards and threats must be regulated ever more strictly on scientifically sound grounds.
As "Murphy III" would have it, there is now an articulated Republican Party Goal to "decrease regulation and taxes," and to "downsize the Federal Government and its interference in our lives." They want to eliminate the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency!!!

I wonder who the Republicans talk to about Nukes, Chernobyl and Survival.

Thus, we are led into a vision of the untested global nuclear trap. With "Murphy III" for a dealer, I can't think of a worse realistic prospect for life on this earth. Thus, "Murphy III" has us set up for the WAIS.

Talk about The Paranoids being Right!
 

  • All that I have not included (those are the ones that usually get you).

  •  
Now let me set the historical, global context devoid of significant human input for the stability of the WAIS.
 
 


What I Have Learned About the WAIS:

The Western Antarctic Ice Sheet is flowing rapidly (300 to 700 m/yr.) From the sub-ice, active volcano on the inland edge of the Antarctic Rift toward the Ross Ice Shelf. This flow is in the form of "Ice Rivers," or "Ice Streams," activated by the volcano and "The Rift." Half of the Western Antarctic Ice will have reached the sea before 1000 years, and after 20 years, i.e. before 3000 AD and after 2020!

The 1000-year timescale given above is for a constant ice flow rate and volcanic stimulation rate during the 1000 years, which is what "the Hawaiian Hotspot" and most rift volcanos have done. But "the Pacific Rim Volcanoes" (of which at least some of the Antarctic Volcanoes like "Deception Island" are a part) usually exhibit centuries of silence broken up by rare explosive episodes. If the sub-ice volcano is of the explosive type*, we may be in for a catastrophic rise in global sea level during the next one-to-ten years? or 100 to 200 years?

The energy released by the Krakatoa explosion could have melted 2/3 of the WAIS.

Realistically, about 1/10 of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet is involved with the volcano, the rift and its Ice Rivers. So a catastrophic volcanic event could cause a 2 ft. rise in global sea level that would start with a tidal shock wave more than 1000 ft. high at the outer edge of the Ross Ice Shelf (70 S). If all of that ice went into the sea during 3 to 6 hours. Figure 16 shows that shock move north across the Pacific. The height of that deep sea tidal wave would be more than 100 ft. at Tierra del Fuego at the southern tip of South America (55 S). The Coastal Nukes in South Africa are within 200 ft. of sea level! Are the coastal Nukes in the northern hemisphere immune to a 2 ft. rise in sea level introduced by a thousand-foot Global Tidal Wave originating in the Ross Sea, Antarctica? 
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Krakatoa, Pinatubo, Mt. St. Helens, etc., etc., etc.


 During April 1998, PBS showed NOVA #2508: "Warnings from the Ice" on TV, and at other times since. That show is about the rapidly-moving ice of the WAIS and its ability to cause a human disaster by raising sea level by as much as 20 ft. To characterize the information presented during that show, I quote a series of statements made by one of the many geophysicists, Dr. Richard B. Alley, who appeared on that show:
 

"In the last million years, the glaciers have grown and shrunk about 10 times. And they typically spend about 90,000 years growing and 10,000 years melting, and 90,000 years growing and 10,000 years melting, and so on."

"So, there is some concern that the warming at the end of the last Ice Age would now be causing melting at the bottom, and that as more melts, it goes faster. That makes friction, which makes heat, which melts more, which goes faster. And the same thing - disaster."

"We have these fast-moving ice streams, which are lubricated on the bed, and between them are ridges of slow-moving ice which are probably frozen to their beds. The temperature of the bed depends on a number of things. It depends on how hot the earth is underneath and how much heat comes up, but it also depends on how hot the atmosphere" (and the ocean) are.

"When you look at the long record, the warm-up from the Ice Age to today was not a smooth process. It jumped. It would be coming along and then - Boing! - the world changed. And the "boing" may have taken 50 years, it may have taken 20 years, some of the "boings" one to three years. And the change is something, a third to a half of the whole warming from the Ice Age. Just the world changed.

Narrator: This is a volatile world. If climate shifted abruptly in the past, not just once, but repeatedly, it's inevitable it will happen again. The question is, when?"

Richard B. Alley: "Ultimately, we would like to know what faces us in the future. Will the climate do this again? Should we get ready for it? Will our actions effect it? If we humans do this, will the climate change? Can we change it so that it's nice to us, or might we change it so it's very bad for us?"
 

The possibility of an explosive volcanic event under the WAIS is remote, but not impossible. "Deception Island" is the exposed rim of a "phreatic explosion" of a volcano near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. A "phreatic explosion" occurs when large amounts of sea water pour into the main lava chamber of an active volcano. The resultant self-reinforcing steam explosion significantly increases the power of "ordinary" volcanic explosions. Krakatoa & Deception Island are examples.

The WAIS can be destabilized rather easily by heating it. That heating is being provided by a warming polar atmosphere and by warming polar seas. One of the "easing" conditions is that the majority of the WAIS contact with the continental plate is about 1 km (0.6 mi.) BELOW sea level.

Global circulations of the oceans take ten to fifteen years to complete, so global ocean warming will lag global atmospheric warming by ten to thirty years. So the last 25 years of atmospheric warming will not be reflected in global ocean temperatures for another 10-to-30 years. By then the average polar atmosphere temperatures will have increased by another 2f to 10f, and the WAIS may have manifest its unstable nature.

If the entire Western Antarctic Ice Sheet went into the sea, there would eventually be a 20 ft. rise of sea level worldwide; even if it started abruptly with Thousand foot Tidal Shocks that would ravage All Pacific Islands and All Pacific Coastal Regions.

How many of the earth's Coastal Nukes* would survive a 20 ft. rise in sea level? The U.S. & Japanese Coastal Nukes are shown in Figures 17 and 18.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* In the U.S. that's A Minimum of 23 U.S. Nukes!!!
 

------ 3 (WA)

Eureka (CA)

Diablo Canyon 1 & 2 (CA)

San Onofre 1 & 2 (CA)

South Texas 1 & 2 (TX)

Grand Gulf 1 (LA)

River Bend 1 (LA)

Waterland 3 (LA)

Crystal River 3 (FL)

Turkey Point 3 & 4 (FL)

St. Lucia 1 & 2 (FL)

Calvert Cliff (?)

Oyster Creek 1 (LI)

Indian Point 2 & 3 (NY)

Millstone 1, 2, & 3 (CT)

pilgrim 1 (MA)

Seabrook 1 (NH)

Maine Yankee (Maine) 



 
 


 
 There are more than 20 Pacific coastal nuclear reactors in Japan (7), the U.S. (5). Taiwan (3), Korea (3), China (2), and the Philippine Islands (1). All of these reactors are within 200 feet of local sea level, and they would be devastated by thousand foot tidal waves that kept them inundated by salt water for 3 to 6 hours, or longer. If these reactors were not destroyed outright with their deadly inventories released into the atmosphere and into the oceans and surrounding soils and populations.

Even if those Nukes were not destroyed promptly, they would be flooded with salt water, and EVERYONE who might take care of these reactors would be swept away or killed. Without immediate care, all of the inundated Pacific Coastal Nukes would explode, melt down, disintegrate or just leak endlessly. In any case, the world would have to deal with the release of ten or more Nukes, radioactive inventories as shown in "The Final Figure." No Human, No Amphibian, No Vertebrate, No Mollusk, Few Insects and Few Plants could survive on this earth. Such an event would certainly end human life on this earth. Again, with no humans left to attend the remaining 400+ Nukes in this world, the 400+ non-coastal Nukes would eventually release their inventories into the environment and no living thing would survive. So the earth would see one Chernobyl (1986), then a WAIS Tidal Shock that would give us 10 Chernobyls, which would lead to 400 Chernobyls, and that would eliminated any hope for "life on earth" for 1,000,000 years or so.

Such is the nature of "Murphy III" operating on a Nuke-rich, Radioactive Trap called earth, 1999-.

Numbing? Depressing? Looking for a way back into the womb? What can anyone do? Humans can't affect Antarctic Volcanos, Ice Sheets, Rifts or Polar Heating; but we can remove all Nukes from coastal regions where they could be destroyed by thousand foot Tidal Shocks. Anyone interested in visualizing a thousand-foot Tidal Shock Wave should see the movie "Deep Impact." My main problem with that movie is that they didn't consider the impact of their thousand-foot Tsunami on the Antarctic Coastal Nukes. That would have reversed the "happy" ending that they showed. 



 
 
SOS HELP SOS


Where to start?
 

People have been warning for thousands of years that "Business As Usual" is going to swallow us all up in an imminent cataclysm of Doom and Destruction! Yet we are still here! Humanity has survived all of those threats.

The establishment has always laughed at "Prophets of Doom", and "The People" didn't want to hear, didn't want to be bothered! They are busy taking care of real and important matters.

The problem is that no one knows how to "fix" a broke Nuke, or how to retrieve released radioactivity. To date, we have immersed dead Nukes (Fermi, Chernobly, et al.) in concrete and steel tombs that need to be reinforced or rebuilt every ten to thirty years. Chernobyl's inadequate Sarcophagus started disintegrating before ten years were up, and Chernobyl has intensified, compounded and escalated all of the usual Soviet problems. That has brought a whole new set of serious problems to "The People" of the world, to the amphibians of the world, and to many other carnivorous species on this earth.

So what do we do in the meantime? If we do not actively interfere with Nuclear "Business as Usual"; I, and many other scientists and engineers, can guarantee that another Chernobyl-like nuclear disaster will occur (very likely in the Northern Hemisphere) during the next 16 years (by 2015 AD)! AND so will another TMI-like nuclear disaster [the top half of the TMI core disintegrated and collected in the bottom of "the Reactor Vessel," which maintained its integrity as did the TMI "Containment Vessel"(Chernobyl had NO "Containment Vessel"!)].

By the time that Chernobyl had exploded in 1986, the world had almost 4000 Reactor-Years (RY) of experience with the large nuclear electric power plants. During that time, the TMI disaster (1979) had also occurred. That's TWO MAJOR NUCLEAR REACTOR CORES that destroyed themselves (one lucky; one unlucky) during the first 4000 RY of nuclear power reactor experience. Does that mean that we can expect two more MAJOR NUKE DISASTERS during the next 4000 RY? No, for 3 reasons: (1) We learn from experience; (2) luck may be on our side, and (3) Data: "the next 4000 RY were completed before 1998 (400+ Nukes "on line" for 10 years after Chernobyl), and no MAJOR COMMERCIAL NUKE disaster has occurred on earth since Chernobyl.

So we would normally predict that "the next pair of NUKE disasters" are expected between 4000 and8000 RY after Chernobyl. Further, risk-takers might venture that "I guarantee that the next Chernobyl will occur before 2015 AD." That's about 12,000 RY AFTER 1986; a fairly safe bet!

So our task is clear, but how to go about accomplishing that task is anything but clear.

I have written this two-volume study in order to make these things as clear and as inescapable, as I can so that you and your understandings, dear reader, can join us in our determined efforts to solve this human survival problem before it's too late.

So just DO YOUR THING without violence. Follow your star.

Now it would have been nice to have ended this chapter on that crescendo, BUT unfortunately, NUKES have two other MAJOR radioactive problems that must be addressed and solved if humans are to survive the 21st century:

  • The regular releases of radioactive gases (I-131, Kr-85, Xe-133, Tritium, (H-3), etc.) that have led to the human cancer plagues within 100 miles of U.S. and all other NUKES, and
  • The millions of pounds of very long-lived radioisotopes (Pu-239, Pu-240, U-234, Cs-135, Am-243, etc.) accumulating in all nuclear reactor cores in the world and in "spent" fuel rods.
The human cancer plagues surrounding each Nuke can be solved only by shutting-down all operating Nukes and by treating the exposed victims.

The huge quantities of the long-lived radioactive wastes preclude isolation by burial, rockets, etc. So shutting down Nukes only stops additions of Pu, etc. to our growing radioactive waste problems. Only an active global crash program to develop new technologies to neutralize, or remove, these deadly doses from the earth's environments can keep the window of Human Survival Open.

"Is it time again?*"


Laws (made primarily by lawyers for the benefit of the rich) are usually designed to protect (and regulate) society's institutions and corporations and the powerful rich people who control and maintain them. It is not difficult to see how this kind of perversion of government function came about. Thus the preoccupation with money and its pursuit is built into "law-abiding citizens", our educational systems (one of our basic institutions) and decisions.

The ponderous rigidity of this money-based system provides little room for individuality, change, or any of the basic traits that distinguish humans from mountains. There doesn't seem to be a place, or a way, for citizens to cast a vote in their own behalf. Indeed, we are "allowed to vote" -- we get to choose between two sets of well-healed clowns whose minds are controlled by belief in dollars from those same corporations and institutions. Thus the citizenry has no way of finding justice from our legal/justice system; so when social problems transcend the citizens' occupation with economic safety, there is little that can be done via the avenues offered by our "bottom line" societies.

When the blind machinations of the rich controllers go beyond our capacity to solve the problems via ordinary physical avenues, the citizenry depends on those who are able to operate effectively on avenues not controlled or maintained by the law, corporations, institutions, money, etc. History offers a few examples where human will transcended institutions and brought about profound changes in human relations with their peers, their institutions and their environments. Many of these "examples" brought about changes in the citizens' right view of god: Moses, Buddha, Mohammed, Jesus, Gandhi, et al.

Our blind leaders have led us again into a box that appears inescapable, so it's time again. What happened 2000 B.C. to "0" C.D.?

I assure you that the people will declare "It's time again." if another Chernobyl occurs, or if a Supernova occurs. I feel that one is imminent in our galaxy, but I'd like to see one so much that I can't trust my "feel".

We are way overdue for a supernova in our galaxy anyway. Don't worry, you won't need a telescope to see a supernova in our galaxy (the "Milky Way").
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* From "Peace is a State of Mind", 1981

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conclusions


The original purpose of this book was to show the many kinds of arguments against WIPP and to present some ways of stopping WIPP and of changing our legal, economic and political systems to nurture Human Survival in the 21st century.

The new discoveries* about Chernobyl's radioactive releases and the world's determination to experience additional "Chernobyls" have changed that. The current purpose of this book is to alert the world to the manifest significance of the ongoing radioactive mass extinctions of amphibia that will end human survival and the survival of all vertebrates if we do not STOP WIPP AND shut down more than 200 NUKES before 2015 AD! Due to the instability of the WAIS, the NUKES on the Pacific coasts within 100 meters (330 ft.) of sea level, and all of their fuel rods, should be included in that first 200 Nukes.

Oh yes indeed, the above scenario for humans can be realized, but it requires the immediate adoption of a number of unlikely, permanent and global changes:
 

  • Zero Release of Pu-239, Sr-90, Cs-137, etc.; and Replace WIPP, Yucca Mtn., etc. with RSSF's ("Dry Cask" storage).
  • Part of (1) is to shut down more than 1/2 of all operating nuclear reactors (especially Pacific Coastal NUKES) as soon as possible (before 2015 AD)!
(3) Humans Must Be Strict Vegetarians (No Meat, Milk or Eggs) to survive the current radioactive threat; it is already too late for most amphibian species!

(4) "Business As Usual" Must Be Abandoned for decisions involving large scale public hazards;

    • All nations must initiate CRASH PROGRAMS to discover new "failsafe" technologies to neutralize, or to isolate the world's tons of radioactive wastes from the earth's biosphere.

    •  
Chernobyl has sent humanity a wakeup call, an attention-getting "2x4", via our amphibian "canaries". Most highly-developed cultures (U.S., and W. Europe (except France)) have withdrawn from nuclear reactors for economic, TMI II and Chernobyl IV reasons. E. Europe, Asia, Latin America and "the Middle East" still cling to that self-destructive nuclear hope that has already failed and is pulling us all down by our genes.
 

Zero Release for all Sr-90, Cs-137 Pu, TRU, U, etc. is our only hope for Survival!!!

These decisions must be put into the hands of an informed public; political, bureaucratic and economic decision makers have generally proven to be too ignorant, inadequate, irresponsible, deceptive, treacherous, corrupt and/or tyrannical to protect the public!

This list may not be complete, but it is hard enough to accomplish as is. If we get all four of these "changes" executed before 2015 AD, there is hope for humans to survive the radioactive siege that grips our world today.

Many will criticize the results and conclusions of these studies. While we await the results of the critical measurements of Pu, Sr+Cs, etc., concentrations in global amphibia and in other life forms and environments; WIPP must be put on hold, and as many nuclear reactors as possible (power, naval, military, etc.) must be shut down worldwide (the worst ones, and the Pacific Coastal NUKES first).

Become "Vegan" (strict Vegetarian); no milk, cheese or eggs either: Block Sr-90, Cs-137, I-131, etc., from your body with healthy, survival-designed overdoses of Ca, K, Fe, and I, etc.

Resolve the question: contrary to AMA belief, can "a healthy gut" in a "Vegan" Human produce enough B12 to keep that person healthy for life? If not, we need to add sub-lingual B12 supplements to our survival diets.

Overall this study has specified QUANTITATIVELY the amounts, kinds, lifetimes and locations of the major releases of radioactivity into the global biosphere during 1945 to 1998. The deadly impacts of Chernobyl releases, local then global, on amphibians is chronologically, radioactively, geographically, and mathematically coordinated.

The mathematical model specifies inescapably what concentrations of Sr-90+Cs-137, U-238 or of Pu-239 pose a specific threat to vertebrate cell populations. For Sr-90+Cs-137, that range of concentrations, C(Sr+Cs), is 104 C(Sr+Cs) 106 atoms/cc, for Pu-239 that range is 109 C(Pu) 1011 atoms/cc, and for U-238: 1014C(U)1016 atoms/cc. Unique amphibian decimations are predicted as the first and only response of all lifeforms exposed to a 10x to 1000x (HOTS) impulsive increase in cellular concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90, above

104 atoms/cc.

There are about 450 Chernobyl-size nuclear reactors operating on Earth today. More than 200 of those would yield Chernobyl-size releases of radioactivity every 20 or 30 years. If the next nuclear disaster does occur before 2016, only the most primitive lifeforms (singe-celled) would survive the 21st century on Earth as all NUKES, unattended, released their deadly inventories into the environment. Then, All Life on Earth Would Become Extinct.

The clear conclusion is that the operating nuclear power plants must be shut down as soon as possible, which is MUCH sooner than ... "as soon as practical."

This NUCLEAR TRAP has put the world into a situation that is intolerant of the "natural disasters" that have occurred regularly throughout earth history (like the WAIS disappearance).

As a minimum, as many "lemons," ageing and 3rd year fuel rod reactors as possible must be taken off-line now and kept off-line as much as possible! In the meantime, the necessary measurements of Sr, Cs, U and Pu concentrations in the cells of healthy and extincting amphibian species worldwide, in other vertebrates and in their environments must be taken, publicly confirmed and published. With those data in hand, we can determine if publicly-subsidized closings of all nuclear power plants (commercial, government, weapons, experimental, private, etc.) is called for.

But if those measurements show that high concentrations of Sr+Cs, Pu or U have been the cause of the global amphibian decimations, only new Failsafe Technologies that can quickly alchemize radioactive substances into harmless, non-radioactive ash, or that can safely "transport" our radioactive hazards into the core of the sun can prevent global mass extinctions of all Humans, all Birds, all Reptiles, all Fish, all Mammals; INDEED, OF ALL LIFE ON THIS PLANET!!!

Note that the thrust of this 2nd volume has become Chernobyl, Sr-90, Cs-137, U-238 and nuclear reactor disasters; while the thrust of the original edition of "The Book" was NO Pu releases, No WIPP and No Yucca Mtn.

These are the single facets of a single fact: The people who control the nuclear technologies have shown no responsibility to the people or to the future. So the facets of that truth that carry the greatest significance and the greatest urgency draw the most intense and determined efforts. WIPP timing and the daily threat of another Chernobyl both qualify. So does the threat of a thousand foot tidal wave in the Pacific. The Chernobyl-induced amphibian decimations and "The Species Survival Equations" for Pu, for U-238 and for Sr+Cs connect Human Survival quantatively to how much radioactivity (Sr, Cs, "HOTS", U, Pu, etc.) is released into the biosphere during the next 15 to 50 years.

How do "We The People" regain our world from the monied halls of fear, power, global irresponsibility and inhumanity?

The hope is that these two volumes have moved us all toward an answer to that question.
 


A Creature from the Swamp


Herein a mathematical and empirical model involving a cause-and-effect relationship between Chernobyl's Radioactive releases, Species' Extinctions (Amphibia first!), and Human Survival is presented. It is a powerful statement.

What is needed to specify and clarify the true nature of the global extinctions is to take definitive measurements of radioactive Pu, Sr, Cs, U, Br, Kr, Rb, I and Xe concentrations in all Amphibia, Humans, etc. and in their environments, predators, and prey worldwide. These measurements would be the basis for the definitive empirical models for the quantitative relationships between Chernobyl radioactivity, species Extinctions (Amphibia first!) and Human Survival.

The sooner that these global measurements of radioactive isotopes in Amphibia, Humans, environments, etc. are taken, the sooner we can determine what steps really need to be taken over what time-scales.

Never forget: One of the 450 operating nuclear reactors is the world's next Chernobyl racing toward its explosive extinction and the next wave of worldwide, radioactive mass extinctions of Humans, more amphibia and most other vertebrates.
 

There is no compromise with nature! We must comply with nature's laws or fail.
 

As a species, we pursue imaginative, unlikely, and remote doomsday scenarios when the inevitable repeat of Chernobyl explosions, and their immediate and chronic releases, will complete the purge of Amphibia started at Chernobyl. The rest of us earthlings will be engulfed too.

I have developed a much deeper respect for Sternglass, Gofman, Gould, Tamplin, et ilk who have had the courage to calculate, address, observe and think about the real costs of the Global Nuclear Folly in real numbers. I have taken that step that glimpses the specific horrors that will befall the untold billions of Chernobyl's victims, 1986-2075 AD (Cs-137 globally plus Pu and Sr-90 locally).

We must do all that can be done to minimize, then to end, the global horrors that the unbridled nuclear technologies have brought down on our heads.