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Tuesday April 24 2:21 PM ET
U.S. Weapons Sale Angers China

By JOHN LEICESTER, Associated Press Writer

BEIJING (AP) - China on Tuesday denounced U.S. plans to sell weapons to Taiwan, warning Washington not to further hurt ties, while Taiwanese applauded the move as a signal of the Bush administration's commitment to the island.

China's Foreign Ministry said it ``strongly opposed'' the sale of destroyers, submarines and submarine-hunting planes and said it could increase China-Taiwan tensions.

``Washington must exercise prudence on the question of arms sales to Taiwan so as not to create new harm for relations,'' said the ministry spokeswoman, Zhang Qiyue.

Still, it was a relatively restrained response from China, possibly reflecting relief that Washington deferred Taiwan's request to buy U.S. destroyers equipped with the high-tech Aegis radar. Both China and the United States are also fearful of jeopardizing their tens of billions of dollars in annual trade.

FILE--The 10th Aegis Class guided missile destroyer "ROSS"--DDG 71, is shown in this undated handout photo. The much-acclaimed Aegis weapons system, sought by Taiwan and bitterly opposed by China, is designed to manage an air and sea battle from a single ship. (AP Photo/Ingalls Shipbuilding, File)

U.S.-China relations are tense following an April 1 collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet that led to the 11-day detention of the 24-member American crew. Ties have also been strained by China's detention of five writers and scholars, four of them American citizens or permanent U.S. residents.

Zhang said China had protested to Washington over the planned arms sale and would continue to do so. But she did not threaten specific action against the United States or Taiwan, which Beijing considers a lost province that it wants back. The two sides split amid civil war in 1949.

U.S. officials will formally notify a Taiwanese delegation on April 24, 2001 of President Bush's decision to offer Taipei the largest arms sales package in a decade, minus the sophisticated Aegis naval air defense system that had drawn China's ire. Under the deal, Washington would sell Taiwan four Kidd class destroyers, a dozen anti-submarine P-3 Orion aircraft and eight diesel submarines built in Europe. The Kidd-class destroyer USS Chandler DDG-996 is shown in an undated photo. (U.S. Navy via Reuters)

China had said the sale of Aegis equipment, a serious threat in any conflict with Taiwan, would be a major provocation.

Despite the deferral, China denounced the plans to offer Taiwan four Kidd-class destroyers, up to eight diesel submarines and 12 P-3 Orion anti-submarine aircraft.

``All these weapons are sophisticated and advanced arms which the Chinese side is opposed to,'' Zhang said. Such sales would ``seriously undermine China's sovereignty, interfere in China's internal affairs and will give rise to tension across the Taiwan Straits.''

Taiwan had no official comment, but lawmakers and analysts applauded Washington for granting many items on the island's weapons wish list.

``I think this decision shows the Bush administration took Taiwan's defense needs seriously,'' said Parris Chang, a senior lawmaker with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. ``It also shows Bush understands that the balance of power is tilting toward China.''

For months, Taiwan's annual request for American weapons has been the subject of intense speculation and attention on the island. Many considered the issue to be a crucial test of whether the Bush administration would lean toward Taiwan or its giant communist rival.

Improved Taiwanese defenses could frustrate China's attempts to intimidate Taiwan into agreeing to union on Beijing's terms or conquering it if peaceful means fail.

``This is certainly the biggest package, and potentially one of the most meaningful in terms of war-fighting capabilities, approved for Taiwan ever,'' said Fu S. Mei, editor-in-chief of the Taiwan Defense Review Web site.

Another source of friction is Washington's decision last week to approve a visa for former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui. China accuses Lee of seeking to block its efforts to get Taiwan back.

China's ambassador in Washington, Yang Jiechi, appealed Monday for the visa to be withdrawn, the state-run Xinhua news agency said.

The last time Lee visited America in 1995, as president, Beijing recalled its ambassador and held threatening war games near Taiwan. Lee plans to visit America in early May.

China, Russia Forge Global Anti-U.S. Alliances

NewsMax.com
Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2001

China and Russia are wooing the virulently anti-American governments of Iran and Iraq, forging military and trade alliances with both nations.

With Moscow already locked into a close partnership with India, restoring ties with Cuba and wooing the anti-U.S. regime in Venezuela, the two nations have increased their aid to Iran and Iraq.

In recent weeks:

A high-level official Chinese delegation discussed strengthening China-Iran military cooperation, according to World Tribune.com, which reported that Liu Jibin, China's Minister of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense, told Iranian Defense Minister Admiral Ali Shamkhani that Beijing plans to improve ties with Teheran in all fields.

The state-run Iran Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Shamkhani as saying that Iranian President Mohammad Khatam’s recent visit to China was "a turning point in relations." Shamkani has been Liu’s host during his current visit.

The New Axis: Moscow and Beijing Sign New Pact to Challenge U.S.

NewsMax.com
Monday, Jan. 15, 2001

A new and potentially dangerous treaty uniting Russia and China in an anti-U.S. alliance will be signed by the middle of this year.

This new Axis, reminiscent of the World War II Axis pact between Germany, Italy and Japan, will be aimed at solidifying ties between two traditional enemies whose growing hostility to the U.S. is sparked by their desire to create a counter-force to what they see as America’s attempts to dominate the world, as well as to stymie U.S. plans to build an anti-missile defense system.

The new pact could be signed in mid-2001 when China’s President Jiang Zemin is due to visit Moscow, according to the Washington Post’s John Pomfret.

Writing in Friday’s Post, Pomfret notes that the treaty will mark the first time China has signed a political accord in decades and reinforces the opinion of experts from the two nations that China and Russia are growing closer together than ever, even surpassing their Sino-Soviet alliance early in the Cold War.

The increasing cooperation between China and Russia has been evident in Moscow’s sale of hi-tech military equipment that is helping China to modernize its armed forces.

Russia is now negotiating a combined arms sales package with China valued at up to $15 billion over the next five years – the largest such deal in Russia's history, according to the authoritative British publication Jane's Intelligence Review.

In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin arranged for the sale of AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems) aircraft equipped with advanced radar sensor and communications systems that allow them to monitor the skies for hundreds of miles in any direction, and direct and control their own aircraft against attackers.

Experts warn that the AWACS deal could give China sufficient command of the air to make it difficult for the U.S. to repeat its 1996 deployment of aircraft carriers off the Taiwan Straits.

Beijing spent over $6 billion from 1991 to 1997 buying Russian weapons and this year reached agreement to pay another $2 billion to buy 40 of Russia's latest SU-30 fighter jets. The agreement was aimed at achieving equality with Taiwan's U.S.-made F-16s and French-made Mirage 2000 fighters. The deal also included technology transfers, which will enable China to produce its own spares and future warplanes.

The SU-30 is Russia's most advanced fighter-bomber, and the latest models incorporate the MM thrust-vectoring, which directs the power of the engine to produce sharp changes of height and direction – a state-of-the-art system to avoid anti-aircraft missiles.

For their part, China has already started production of a total of 200 Russian-designed SU-27 fighters at its defense complex in Shenyang City under an agreement signed in 1996.

Thanks to the experience gained from the SU-27, and the new machine tools, blueprints and skills that will be acquired with the SU-30, China will be close to having its own advanced warplane industry.

Speaking of the reported sale of two more Sovremenny destroyers, one unidentified American military official told Pomfret that the ships, equipped with Sunburn anti-ship missiles, "could potentially hurt our aircraft carrier battle groups."

"The sales are beginning to create concern," he said. "After a while, they start to build up. Of course, our real concern is in the things we can't see, the technical transfers, the help on China's cruise missile program, its rockets and strategic forces."

Given the belligerent tone of China’s statements vis-à-vis the U.S., its feverish race to make its armed forces among the world’s most powerful worries U.S. officials.

As reported in NewsMax.com Nov. 15, the possibility of waging war against the United States is coming to dominate the thinking of China’s leadership, which, time and again, has threatened nuclear war against the United States if it comes to the aid of Taiwan when Beijing finally launches its promised attack on the island.

According to a front-page story in the Washington Post, one of the People's Liberation Army strategists, Liu Jiang, wrote in China Military Science, the military's pre-eminent open-source publication: "War is not far from us now. A new arms race has started to develop."

In his Oct. 27 NewsMax.com column, Col. Stanislav Lunev wrote about China’s plans for war with the United States: "It’s known that Red China is preparing for a future war with the U.S., considered by Beijing as its "main potential adversary," and it’s becoming clearer to many experts that this is the reason behind China’s increased military development."

"Currently Beijing is shaping its military into a leaner, more technologically advanced armed force, which will soon have strategic capabilities. This is the long-term Chinese policy, confirmed recently by Chinese President Jiang Zemin when he called for more realistic ultra-high-tech training for his country’s military machine.

"Red China currently is engaged in an extremely aggressive intelligence war against the U.S. and America’s friends and allies, as well as in the massive military buildup, which includes weapons of mass destruction and conventional arms. This buildup is based not on any threat to China but instead on the ambitions of the Communist rulers in Beijing."

Experts see the coming treaty as a challenge to the Bush administration.

Jonathan Pollack, chairman of the strategic research department at the Naval War College, told the Post that the treaty reflects Moscow's and Beijing's concerns about the incoming Bush administration.

"These negotiations are being publicized on the very eve of the Bush presidency. It may not be a formal alliance, but it's trying to give meaning and momentum to the concept of a strategic partnership, which seems overly nebulous to many," he said.

Pollack added that one incentive for closer Sino-Russia ties was their united opposition to U.S. policies.

"Both leaderships are very uneasy about the new administration's plans to accelerate national missile defense, though it's unclear that either has a strategy for restraining this process. But a more committed bilateral relationship would make it more difficult for either to do a side deal with Washington," he said.

"The United States, through incompetence and ham-handed policymaking, has effectively driven China and Russia together," said James Mulvenon, a security expert at the Rand Corp.

"NMD [national missile defense] is a perfect example," he told the Post. "By not having a coordinated policy vis-à-vis the Europeans and the Russians, we let the Chinese play them off against us. There is an enormous resonance in both countries for blaming problems on American hegemony, and we have done nothing to drive a wedge between them."

A formidable Sino-Russian partnership has not been a consideration since the Cold War era, but if Jiang and Putin continue building a mutual trust and friendship between their two countries, President Bush may find himself having to face an alliance that is more than capable of challenging America’s dominance and influence on the world.

China, Russia Plot Space Attacks

NewsMax.com
Thursday, Feb. 8, 2001

The Pentagon is warning that reliance on space technology is America's Achilles heel, which Communist China and Russia are intent on exploiting and attacking.

According to the Thursday issue of the Washington Times:

That was the scenario laid out by Vice Adm. Thomas R. Wilson, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and George J. Tenet, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, at the intelligence community's annual world threat briefing Wednesday.

This was the first time American intelligence officials have discussed in public the space-warfare threat facing the United States.

Because the U.S. military relies so heavily on satellites and space-based sensors for communications, intelligence, reconnaissance and command-and-control of forces all over the world, the three-star admiral said, "future adversaries will be able [by 2015] to employ a wide variety of means to disrupt, degrade or defeat portions of the U.S. space support system.

"China and Russia have across-the-board programs under way, and other smaller states and non-state entities are pursuing more limited – though potentially effective – approaches."

Trent concurred, adding that "our adversaries well understand U.S. strategic dependence on access to space.

"Operations to disrupt, degrade, or defeat U.S. space assets will be attractive options for those seeking to counter U.S. strategic military superiority."

U.S. experts have reported that China is already developing ground-based laser weapons and electronic-pulse weapons capable of blinding or destroying American satellites.

Both Wilson and Trent told members of the Senate Intelligence Committee they cannot verify that China is keeping its word given to the United States that it would curb sales of its missiles and weapons of mass destruction to other counties.

Seated between Wilson and the State Department's intelligence chief, Thomas Fingar, the CIA director laid out a sobering assessment of what confronts the United States from abroad:

• Saudi fugitive Osama bin Laden and his terrorists pose "the most immediate and serious threat" of attacks on Americans on American soil.

• Not only is the Islamist Taleban regime in Afghanistan providing a safe haven to bin Laden, but also it is engaging in drug trafficking.

• The threat from long-range ballistic nuclear missiles is confined no longer just to Russia and China but now includes North Korea, Iran and possibly Iraq.

• Risk of "full-scale war" between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region, now "unacceptably high," could lead to a regional nuclear conflict.

• Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia is reverting in several ways to a Soviet-style government, undermining democracy.

China-Russia Pact and the New Danger

Christopher Ruddy
Monday, Jan. 15, 2001

Reports that China and Russia are preparing to sign a "friendship pact" should send a chill down your spine.

The signing of such an agreement is a natural outcome of a warming relationship between the two great nations that began more than a decade ago.

The two countries have made clear their reason for the new pact: to challenge the worldwide influence of the United States.

China openly calls the treaty a "strategic partnership" signifying that a new global axis has developed between Moscow and Beijing.

Press dispatches, including one in Sunday’s New York Times, cite a key reason for the closeness between Russia and China. The new Bush administration plans to build a missile defense system.

The new agreement is not an abrupt development. China and Russia have been stepping up economic and military cooperation in recent years, to the point they have been withdrawing troops on their once militarized borders.

Bill Clinton’s 1999 war in Kosovo also ignited old fears of an "imperialist" America and only helped to tighten the ties between Beijing and Moscow.

But recent events may have poured kerosene under the budding fire being kindled between the two nations.

The most important recent development was the election of George Bush.

Bush campaigned on rebuilding U.S. defenses. It was not a politically winning issue, but Bush went out of his way to decry the deplorable condition of our armed forces.

Bill Clinton took steps to cut America’s defenses almost in half during his two terms.

Today, no military man would dare claim the U.S. could, in a timely manner, handle another Gulf War, let alone a major blow up over Taiwan, Korea, Israel or some other hot spot.

I believe our adversaries – the Iranians, Khadafy, Saddam, and, yes, the Russians and Chinese – have kept quiet over the past eight years (have you noticed that?) because they knew they had a fool in the White House.

The last time such a man served in the White House was when Jimmy Carter was president.

But the enemies of the U.S. took advantage of Carter and overplayed their hand. Remember Afghanistan, the Iranian hostage crisis?

Americans realized that Carter was foolish, naïve and dangerous. In 1980 they took to the polls and voted for Reagan-Bush.

By making Carter look bad, America’s adversaries ended up with 12 years of Reagan-Bush military policies. Reagan quickly engaged the nation in the largest peacetime buildup ever.

Apparently, our enemies learned their lesson from the Carter days and figured it would be nice to have a two-term Carter in the person of Bill Clinton. Our enemies made Clinton look good at almost every turn. They almost succeeded with three terms of Carter in the person of Al Gore.

Unfortunately for our adversaries, the American public voted for a change this past November.

While I don’t believe Americans voted for Bush because of national security issues, it is our good fortune that our president-elect truly believes in rebuilding America’s defenses.

We know he believes it because personnel is policy. He picked, for starters, former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney as his vice president.

Perhaps the most important Cabinet selection was Donald Rumsfeld, another former secretary of defense.

Rumsfeld comes to the Pentagon without having to learn the job. At confirmation hearings last week, Rumsfeld told the Senate Armed Services Committee that building and deploying a missile defense system was his No. 1 priority.

I have only applause – and worry – about this.

First, I believe Ronald Reagan will be remembered as a great prophet for having sought the creation and deployment of a missile defense system. Almost two decades later, however, Reagan’s vision has yet to be fulfilled.

Cleverly, the Clinton administration created high and perhaps impossible standards for their proposed missile defense program. For eight years they sought to sabotage development of the system through every bureaucratic means.

Clinton never wanted the system, and Moscow and Beijing were happy with him for such a policy.

But Bush’s policies are exactly the opposite of Clinton’s.

Since Russia and China have made preventing the development and deployment of such a system the hallmark of their foreign policy toward the U.S. for more than a decade, we can only imagine what actions they may take to stop Bush.

Russia and China, despite all the media spin we hear, have continued to invest heavily in strategic weaponry – nuclear, biological and chemical.

Thanks to Bill Clinton, China was transferred ballistic missile technology that allows them to hit U.S. cities like Los Angeles with pinpoint accuracy.

Most Americans would be surprised to learn that Russia, not the U.S., has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal of strategic and tactical weapons. China has a growing nuclear arsenal and the world’s largest conventional army.

Both countries will not stand idly by as America tries to build a missile defense system. Nor will rogue countries like North Korea and Iran. All parties know that even if the Bush administration were to begin rebuilding America’s defenses tomorrow, it would still take three to five years to see any measurable result, including the development of a practical missile defense system.

This is why the next few years are ominous ones.

Our adversaries know we will be weak for just a little while longer before their window of opportunity will begin to close. The new China-Russia pact should be viewed in that context and with great concern.

Russia’s Growing Military Preparations

Col. Stanislav Lunev
Thursday, Jan. 11, 2001

Russia’s intense military preparations became more evident last week with the shocking revelation that Moscow has shifted some of its nuclear weaponry to an area bordering on a NATO member’s territory.

According to the Washington Times, Moscow re-deployed its tactical, or battlefield, nuclear weapons to the so-called Kaliningrad enclave, which is strategically located between Poland and Lithuania.

Kaliningrad, once known as Kernigsberg, the former capital of Germany’s Eastern Prussia, is a Baltic Sea port and a major military base for Russian ground and naval forces in this area.

U.S. intelligence claims that Russia has moved short-range nuclear weapons to its base in the Baltics have caused a stir. Such an action conflicts with Moscow’s stated policy of keeping the Baltics free of nuclear weapons, though it would not appear to violate any legally binding arms control agreements.

Under informal agreements reached in 1991 by President George Bush and former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, Russia withdrew its tactical nuclear weapons from Eastern Europe and promised to place them in "central storage facilities."

According to the agreements, President Bush ordered the U.S. military to unilaterally reduce the U.S. arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons, which were removed from ships and from many overseas bases.

Soviet and Russian leaders announced in 1991 and 1992, respectively, that all tactical nuclear arms had been relocated to more secure areas in central Russia. The agreements, which were never formalized by treaty, did not specify the storage sites, but U.S. intelligence sources said that Kaliningrad, the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet, became a depot for tactical nuclear weapons removed by the Russian navy from its ships.

Russian officials, of course, immediately denied that any nuclear arms are in the enclave. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 6 tried to dismiss reports that Russia has re-deployed nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad in violation of Kremlin's 1991-1992 promises. "It’s rubbish," he was quoted by Russia’s news agency as telling a German journalist.

It is no surprise that Russian officials deny their violations of previous international obligations, since until recently they denied reports about Russia’s violation of the 1972 ABM treaty, denied transferring nuclear, missiles and other weapons of mass destruction technology to North Korea, Iran, Iraq and other so-called rogue states. This is a traditional practice of former Soviet and present Russian leaders, who almost never admit their violations of promises.

But re-deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad is an absolutely logical continuation of Putin’s policy, which is directed at restoration of Russia’s military power and its global influence and domination.

Deployment of tactical nukes in Kaliningrad would be aimed at increasing pressure on NATO to withdraw all short-range missiles and other nuclear arms from Europe. Moscow has long argued for their removal, but NATO continues to maintain nukes in Europe.

Also by the re-deploying nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, Russia would seek to prevent NATO from expanding by providing membership for Baltic states and other former Soviet-bloc countries, after Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined an alliance in 1999.

While Washington’s politicians are still talking about adjustments in the U.S. policy toward Russia, Moscow is already challenging America and its friends and allies. We know that a few weeks ago Russian fighters penetrated the air defense system of the U.S. aircraft carrier’s battle group in the international waters of the Sea of Japan, where they flew over the decks of the USS Kitty Hawk and support ships three times.

At the same time, Moscow deployed its strategic bombers to Russia’s Far East, whence they could reach U.S. territory quickly and easily. Before the New Year, a third set of new intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles was deployed at a base in southwest Russia as a part of Moscow’s efforts to make the rugged, very-hard-to-detect weapons the backbone of its strategic nuclear arsenal.

As Russian military officials have reported, a regiment at the Tatishchevo base in the Saratov oblast was equipped with the Topol-M (Russian for poplar tree) single-warhead missiles.

This missile can be launched from a mobile launcher, making it harder to detect and more likely to survive a first or retaliatory strike in a nuclear war. Moscow already had two regiments with 20 Topol-M missiles in service, 10 per regiment, deployed in 1998 and 1999.

The American military doesn’t have the same weapon system, because it cannot afford to develop such a costly missile complex.

At the same time, Moscow started testing a new nuclear-powered attack submarine. As the Russian press reported, those tests took place just four months after the tragic sinking of the Kursk nuclear submarine with 118 men on board.

A new submarine, Gepard (Russian for cheetah), is designed to carry both cruise missiles with nuclear warheads and different types of torpedoes. The Gepard will be Russia’s 13th submarine in the class NATO classifies as Akula (Russian for shark). The new nuclear sub is half the length of the 505-foot Kursk and would have a crew of only 67.

The list of Moscow military preparations could be continued for many pages. But there is no doubt that under Putin Russia’s military buildup has become much more aggressive than ever, including even the hottest periods of the Cold War. And until now it’s been under the nose of the Clinton administration, which is trying to promote Putin as a strong supporter of democracy and as a reliable partner to deal with internationally.

Moreover, the United States continues its financial support to the Kremlin, where American taxpayer money is being used to improve Moscow’s military machine. At the very same time Russia’s military preparations were taking place, the World Bank approved a $122.5 million loan to Moscow, which is officially earmarked for improvement of water supplies and waste treatment in medium-size cities.

Of course, it’s a very small amount when compared with $66 billion from previous credits and loans, and it would be wonderful if this loan were really to be used for the officially stated purposes. But as has happened many times before, Moscow could use American money for the development of Russia’s military-industrial complex and its military machine, which is already challenging the United States and her friends and allies.

This situation has to be stopped as soon as possible. If the U.S can afford to provide funds to the Kremlin regime, the American people need to be sure that these funds are being used for the good of the Russian people, to support democracy and a free-market economy and not to help build Russia’s military machine, whose growing combat capabilities could be used against the United States.

Taiwan Faces New Missile Threat

NewsMax.com Wires
Thursday, Feb. 1, 2001

WASHINGTON – The Republic of Taiwan faces a new threat from China's deployment of conventionally armed theater ballistic missiles, U.S. defense officials said Wednesday.

The anonymous officials said the missiles in question cannot be shot down by the Patriot anti-missile defense batteries currently deployed in Taipei.

"There is no defense possessed by the United States or Taiwan against a whole bunch of short-range missiles, not at the moment," a U.S. defense official said.

The missiles involved are part of China's "deep-attack strategy" that would use 310-mile range CSS-6 (M-9) missiles, 186-mile range CSS-7 (M-11s), and medium-range CSS-5 missiles with a range of 1,333 miles, the sources said.

With these missiles, the Chinese military is fielding "a new capability, one that they never had before," said one U.S. defense expert. "It allows them to reach out some distance and inflict harm without going nuclear."

The new theater missiles, armed with precision conventional warheads, would inflict "the kind of damage the United States would inflict with cruise missiles or manned aircraft," this source said.

Two years ago, Air Force Major Mark A. Stokes, who was U.S. military attache in Beijing from 1992-1995, produced a report on the missiles that United Press International obtained a copy of.

In it Stokes claims that Beijing is developing one of the "most daunting theater missile challenges in the world." Calling the new missiles "highly accurate" and "lethal," Stokes said the new threat includes aircraft-launched ground attack missiles and cruise missiles guided by onboard computers.

"These new weapons not only threaten Taiwan, but Japan and Hawaii," Stokes said.

More than one administration official expressed skepticism of the Stokes report. One called it "a bit off the wall," and a U.S. defense official said, "Chinese forces would be no match for the military forces of South Korea or Japan, much less that of the United States," adding that the new missiles had "some accuracy problems."

The Washington Brookings Institution China and naval expert, Mike O'Hanlon, said that China's improved anti-ship cruise missiles are among the "more serious" threats working against U.S. interests. U.S. defense officials acknowledge that China has a great number of anti-ship cruise missiles, and one source said, "The only thing their navy is good at is hitting a ship in the water."

The anonymous military source added that China's weapons are liquid-fueled, slow and cumbersome. They could attack U.S. ships in the Taiwan Strait because they don't need much in the way of a guidance system: "You just turn the missile on and tell it to go for the big blob," the official said.

But a land-attack cruise missile is harder to build, and expert U.S. defense officials said that China's cruise missile technology is struggling, because of Beijing's inability to build a state-of-the art jet engine. "A jet engine is the heart of a cruise missile," which also includes guidance technology that uses computer-powered in-flight terrain mapping that matches stored images of the ground with in-flight data, according to one official.

These are currently beyond the reach of China's weapons planners who can only build "1960s" jet engines and who are nowhere near being able to field the computer power that can run the kind of guidance system used on the U.S. Navy's Tomahawk cruise missile, these sources said.

With the purchase of two Russian destroyers, China has acquired a first-rate "supersonic" missile, the Sunburn, said one U.S. defense official. "The sheer final speed of the Sunburn's attack on the target is a real problem for a defensive system." The missile also had control surfaces on the airframe that allow it to do "a couple of very sharp zig-zags before it hits."

If the Chinese used the Sunburns, they could inflict "some hard licks" on the U.S. Navy: "Some ships would be sunk," said an official, and the United States would then "sink all of China's ships, every one" in retaliation. But the Sunburn apparently worries U.S. planners, according to James Lilley, China expert at the American Enterprise Institute, since experts said that it is expressly designed to knock out U.S. Aegis-class guided missile cruisers like the USS Cole, damaged in a terrorist attack Oct. 12, 2000.

The Pentagon and companies with security clearances are currently working on the threat and regard it as serious. Lilly said that when the Clinton administration produced a "National Intelligence Estimate" last year that underplayed the new cruise missile threat, Donald Rumsfeld, the current U.S. secretary of defense "blew the NIE out of the water."

With the Sunburn in the picture, "We would field a theater missile defense," Lilley said, adding that if China again fired missiles that landed near the waters of Taiwan, "and we blew one out of the sky, it would make a tremendous psychological impression."

According to several sources that talked to UPI, Rumsfeld is known to favor a theater missile defense system that would rely on the U.S. standard missile for interception. The Chinese strategy in the event of conflict with Taiwan would be to "confront us with the prospect of us losing Navy surface combatants" and hoping that it will be enough to keep us out of the conflict, said one official.

U.S. military experts theorized an attack with the Sunburns on only two of Beijing's destroyers. "If I were the attack group commander, I would know where they were every moment and take them out with the first salvo," he said. And even though much is being written about China's development of stealth warheads and maneuvering warhead re-entry vehicles, they are far in the distance," several sources said.

China's main military defects are major and partially crippling, experts said. Although U.S. pressure stopped the Chinese from purchasing the Israeli-made Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System, a U.S. defense official pointed out that an AWACS "helps with only one part of the air battle which is seeing the battle space." What the Chinese air force lacks is "the whole operational concept of air warfare" currently employed by the U.S. Navy and Air Force, he said.

Chinese pilots are under strict control from ground controllers, say military experts who spoke with UPI. "Regardless of where they sit, the controller dictates every move the pilot makes," one U.S. defense expert said, much like the old Iraqi and other Soviet-derived air forces.

"A controller can control only so many aircraft – the more detail he has to dictate, the fewer aircraft he can control," a U.S. defense official said. Plus their aircraft aren't good enough, and their pilots aren't good enough, he said.

By contrast, the United States gives only very broad guidance to its pilots, warning them of hostiles, but leaving pilots to choose whatever tactics they like in dealing with the threat.

Targeting is another problem. Currently China has targeting problems with its ground-attack cruise missiles that lack the guidance system to determine a target amid the clutter of radar return.

The Chinese also have no over-the-horizon targeting capability, as the United States does, which severely limits missile effectiveness. The Chinese navy has virtually no anti-submarine warfare capability, which would leave it helpless against U.S. attack subs that are sure to be involved in any conflict over Taiwan.

And as far as defense against weapons like U.S. Harpoon anti-ship missiles or Sea Sparrows, China has none and relies instead on "a few point-defense Gatling gun systems," an official said. The majority of China's ships have no air defense at all and only a few vessels have medium-range air defenses.

Although Taiwan's Ministry of Defense last year bragged that China lacked enough M-9 missiles to destroy even a single missile company of Taiwan's forces, Lilley said bluntly, "The Patriot missile is no good for Taiwan."

A congressional aide, who asked to remain anonymous, said that the Taiwan Patriot PAC-2 Plus missiles, an upgraded version of the Patriot missile system used by the United States in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, would not be effective against the new Chinese theater missiles.

"The Patriot isn't an anti-aircraft weapon, not an anti-missile missile," he said. "It flies too slowly and has too much difficulty distinguishing between decoys and booster debris to destroy the warhead," he said. Even if it blows up at the right time, it's so low, that "a chemical warhead would be a disaster," dropping back on the defenders, he said.

A U.S. defense expert agreed. The Patriot, he said, is only "marginally effective," good only for defending "what it's sitting on top of." It hasn't the speed required for interception. One U.S. defense expert said that the real issue in any Chinese campaign against Taiwan is how vigorously the Taiwanese resisted – how much punishment they would be able to take without surrendering. Because all China can do is damage Taiwan, but if the damage "doesn't cause capitulation, that is it," he said. China can't "go beyond punishment to conquest."

Because of this, he said, the Chinese theater missile threat "is not nearly the significant capability as some read it to be." He compared the sheer numbers of warheads the United States dropped on targets in the Kosovo campaign – 30,000 missiles of precision guided munitions "put on a target selected by a very elaborate intelligence and reconnaissance system" costing billions of dollars.

China has no system that can begin to compare, and "one has to not just talk of the missile, but of the numbers of launchers, the number of reloads" and resupply, he said. All told, "China has a couple of hundred missiles to devote to Taiwan."

In the meantime the U.S. military continues to work on a theater missile defense.

North Koreans Threaten U.S. With War If Bush Goes Ahead With National Missile Defense

NewsMax.com
Sunday, April 22, 2001

North Korea is warning they will launch attacks on the U.S. if America and Japan go ahead with plans to mount a joint missile defense.

The nation’s party-controlled media has warned that if the U.S. and Japan proceed with plans for a joint missile defense system, North Korea might have to respond with force.

While commenting on its government's accusations that the U.S. is bent on provoking a war on the Korean peninsula the state-run Korean Central News Agency said: "If they continue to provoke military confrontation with North Korea – following this path to war – we will have no option but to respond with firm resolve."

Meanwhile, Russia and China joined with North Korea in attacking U.S. national missile defense (NMD) plans at the U.N. During a United Nations disarmament forum, the three governments attacked the United States for its intent to build a defense against ballistic missiles according to an April 11 report in the Washington Post.

In separate speeches, the three countries attacked NMD. The North Koreans pledged countermeasures against the missile defense plans and the Russians warned they might have to give up their nuclear weapons reduction program in light of the American NMD proposals.

Moscow is also trying to line up opposition to Washington's plans for the new anti-missile defense shield. According to the official Chinese Xinhua news agency, bilateral talks on strategic stability between Moscow and Beijing had resulted in full agreement between the two countries on their opposition to U.S. missile defense.

None of this rhetoric appears to have impressed President Bush. According to an April 5 report in the London Daily Telegraph, President Bush is said to be ready to withdraw the United States from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, a Cold War pact with the USSR that restricted each country's ability to defend itself against missile attack.

While it has been argued that the US must withdraw from the treaty before going ahead with NMD, administration NMD advocates say that the treaty is null and void anyway, since it was signed with the Soviet Union, a nation that no longer exists.

Monday April 23 6:05 PM ET
Bush Turns Down Aegis Sale to Taiwan for Now

By Randall Mikkelsen

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) turned down for now a decision on whether to sell Taiwan the sophisticated Aegis naval defense system to Taiwan, deciding on Monday to sell less advanced weapons, a congressional source said.

The president would sell Kidd class naval destroyers rather than Arleigh Burke class destroyers that could be fitted with the Aegis system staunchly opposed by China, a congressional aide said.

The aide said he learned of Bush's decision from the administration. The president had decided to ``defer a decision on the Aegis, not deny it,'' he said.

President George W. Bush has turned down a request from Taiwan, at least for now, to sell it the advanced Aegis weapons system, a senior congressional aide said April 23, 2001. AEGIS-equipped U.S. warships are seen in a military exercise in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Florida in this February 6, 2001 photo. Sources say the annual military aid package will include a number of Kidd Class destroyers, eight submarines and 12 P-3 anti-submarine aircraft. (Alan Warner/U.S. Navy via Reuters)

China has also opposed any Kidd sale, but is known to be most concerned about the Aegis system, which it fears could eventually put Taiwan under a U.S. missile defense shield.

The decision effectively keeps the Aegis system as a bargaining chip in U.S.-China relations, which have been strained by a dispute over the collision of a U.S. spy plane and Chinese fighter jet. The United States will also sell Taiwan 12 P-3 ``Orion'' anti-submarine aircraft and help it to buy eight diesel submarines, the source said.

The White House declined immediate comment on the source's disclosure.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer (news - web sites) had said earlier a Taiwanese delegation would be notified on Tuesday during a visit to the Pentagon (news - web sites).

Strains in the U.S.-China relationship, heightened by a dispute over the recent collision of a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter, have given Taiwan's annual arms shopping list increased significance this year.

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province, and has said any advanced weapons sales to Taiwan would have a ``devastating impact'' on U.S.-China relations.

Taiwan had asked for four $1 billion Arleigh Burke Class destroyers equipped with Aegis defense systems designed to detect and attack dozens of missiles, aircraft and ships at once.

Administration security officials had recommended that Washington instead sell the older and less-sophisticated Kidd Class destroyers to Taipei instead of the Arleigh Burkes, though China has also opposed sales of the Kidd destroyers.

Also on Taiwan's shopping list were the diesel-electric submarines of German or Dutch design with U.S. technology, an advanced Patriot antimissile defense known as PAC-3, and the P-3 maritime search and anti-submarine aircraft.

Experts say Bush may warn China that it must stop stationing missiles along its coastline targeted across the South China Sea at Taiwan.

China objects to the sale of these weapons under a U.S. law that requires presidents to provide for Taiwan's legitimate defensive needs even though Washington recognizes Beijing as the sole legitimate government of China.

Chinese officials will not be told of Bush's decision before it is announced to Taiwan, U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Mary Ellen Countryman said.

Due to China's opposition, decisions on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are almost always politically sensitive. But Bush's decision is even more touchy following the April 1 collision of a U.S. Navy (news - web sites) EP-3 reconnaissance plane and a Chinese fighter off China.

The fighter crashed, killing the pilot. The crippled four-engine U.S. plane landed at a Chinese base and China held the 24-member crew for 11 days. Beijing has refused to return the aircraft, a move that has hardened the views of some members of the U.S. Congress on accelerating the modernization of Taiwan's military.

The United States said talks in Beijing over the damaged $80 million EP-3 were productive but that further discussions would be conducted on whether, when and how the plane might be returned.

Chinese Embassy spokesman Zhang Yuanyuan said last week U.S.-China relations would be damaged if Washington decided to sell any advanced weapons to Taiwan. This did not just apply to the Arleigh Burkes, but to other less sophisticated weaponry.

The disputes, coinciding with stepped-up U.S. criticism of China's human rights record, have contributed to a rocky start for Bush in his relations with the Communist giant.

The Midair Collision Above the South China Sea – What’s Next

Col. Stanislav Lunev
Wednesday, April 11, 2001

Last week's events show to us very clearly that our world is far different from the rosy picture the mainstream media paint. The easy explanation that the Cold War chill has only now returned belies the truth that the sharp tiffs in current U.S. relations with Russia, Red China, North Korea and others are not accidents but a logical continuation of previous policies.

This is the heritage the Clinton-Gore administration, which ignored the main problems of this country's national security for a long period of time, bequeathed to the present Bush administration. It is also the result of new developments in those countries whose regimes consider the U.S. at the very minimum their "military adversary" and are trying to challenge America with their constantly growing military power.

The mainstream media tell us that the so-called accident with the U.S. "spy plane" could jeopardize our relations with Beijing, which they claim have never been as good as they are now. But the U.S. Navy EP-3E aircraft forced to land after a midair collision with a Chinese fighter jet was not a "spy plane."

It was a regular reconnaissance or patrol plane, clearly marked "U.S. Navy," and its whereabouts were always known to those it was monitoring. EP-3E was in international airspace on a mission so routine that countless others have been flown continuously by the Air Force and Navy aircraft over the past dozens of years.

It's very difficult to say what actually happened at the time of the EP-3E collision with the PLA fighter jet. The Chinese pilot might have tried to repeat the aerial maneuvers of the former Soviet interceptors, who during the Cold War harassed U.S. patrol aircraft, trying to turn them toward the mainland, where they could be forced to land or shot down. Influenced by Beijing's propaganda, which officially declares the U.S. the "main enemy," the pilot of the Chinese jet was very aggressive in his maneuvers and made a mistake, which cost him his life and seriously damaged the American patrol plane.

What else could we expect from Red China's military personnel, whose minds are controlled by propaganda that has sought for years to convince the Chinese people that every loyal Chinese has to sacrifice his life for the protection of his country from "international imperialism" – read the U.S.

Also it is very possible that the air collision was authorized by the Chinese leaders, but we will never know exactly who made this decision that appears to have been very profitable to Beijing. In capturing the U.S. patrol plane and 24 American hostages Chinese leaders received huge advantages in any future negotiations with the White House over many of the problems in bilateral relations.

Moreover, Chinese experts gained access to the top secret data and equipment on board the American reconnaissance aircraft, which they can use for their military preparations against the U.S. And it wouldn't be any surprise that in the current penetration of American secrets on board the EP-3E on Hainan Island, Chinese specialists are found to be working together with Russian intelligence experts in mutual cooperation.

The damage from this case to U.S. national security cannot be overstated. We can no longer sustain the policy of the previous U.S. administration. The evidence of Red China's military buildup with Russian weapons and its hostile, aggressive actions toward the U.S. and its friends and allies is overwhelming.

During the past year or so, NewsMax.com has reported many times on Red China's aggressive ambitions, its penetrations of the U.S. establishment and capital markets, and Chinese Communist military preparations for the future war with America. It has also reported on the creation of an anti-American coalition of so-called rogue nations resulting from the Moscow-Beijing alliance, which could be officially formalized this summer.

Last month this trend led to a new development. If some media reports are correct, the U.S. Navy patrol plane was conducting a reconnaissance mission of the Russian Sovremenny-class destroyers now in Chinese hands. These warships are armed with supersonic, nuclear-capable SS-N-22 missiles, against which the U.S. Navy has no current defense.

According to intelligence reports, a new model of Sovremenny-class destroyer is secretly under development for China. It will have vertical launch tubes and all the latest missiles. In addition to the Russian-made weapons systems, there are thousands of Russian military engineers now in China developing long-range, land-attack cruise missiles and other up-to-date arms.

Moscow is also offering Red China practically everything from its stockpile of weapons systems, all of which were originally designed by Soviet experts to kill Americans. There is no question against whom these weapons systems were designed, and experts believe that many of the new Russian weapons systems are more advanced than anything the West has in its arsenal. When Beijing buys these weapons it pays in hard currency, thanks to the profitable trade with the U.S. and other Western countries.

With these the PLA is flexing its muscles and is already trying to demonstrate the growing power of its military machine by challenging America and its friends and allies. There is no doubt that without an appropriate reaction from the U.S. administration, the latest demonstration of Chinese military power could be repeated at any time, and we will soon hear about new conflicts involving the Chinese, with much more dangerous consequences.

Wednesday April 11 6:34 PM ET
Bush Wins Release of U.S. Crew From China

By Steve Holland

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) won the release on Wednesday of the 24-member crew of a U.S. spy plane, but left uncertain was the fate of the plane itself as well as any lingering damage to U.S.-Chinese relations.

Cheers from a flag-waving crowd erupted in Greenville, North Carolina, when Bush announced a chartered plane was about to pick up the 24 detainees from China's Hainan Island and carry them to Guam.

The crew would then fly to Hawaii for debriefing and health checks before going to home base in Washington state in time for Easter.

``These have been difficult days for all the families, and these days are a reminder of the sacrifice all our men and women in uniform and their families make every single day for freedom,'' Bush said. He said ``we're proud and thankful'' for the crew ``and we can't wait for them to get home.''

Triggering the release was Chinese acceptance of a meticulously crafted letter of 236 words negotiated by U.S. and Chinese diplomats.

In the letter, United States expressed regret over the death of the Chinese pilot involved in a mid-air collision with the spy plane April 1 and over the American plane having landed at China's Hainan Island without permission.

Fate Of Plane Up In The Air

Although the letter says the United States was ``very sorry'' for both incidents, U.S. officials insisted it was not the outright apology that China had demanded. China had wanted the United States to take full blame for the collision itself, which Washington was not prepared to do.

Aides said Bush authorized the use of the word ``sorry'' in the letter last Saturday, and that on Monday U.S. diplomats told China they had gone as far as they could go.

``The whole purpose of this was to find language that was both acceptable to both sides and met the concerns of both sides,'' said a senior U.S. official deeply involved in the matter. ``The United States feels that this fully met our concerns about correctly portraying what happened.''

Bush said: ``These has been a difficult situation for both countries.''

The fate of the EP-3 plane and its high-tech snooping hardware was unclear. The letter said that during a meeting on April 18 the two sides would discuss ``development of a plan for prompt return'' of the aircraft.

``Issues relating to the release of the EP-3 aircraft are still being discussed,'' said Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Sen. Bob Graham (news - bio - voting record), a Florida Democrat on the Intelligence Committee which has been briefed on the crisis, said he expected the plane to be returned after the April 18 meeting.

``I would anticipate that about that same time we'll see this plane placed on a barge and returned to the U.S. Navy (news - web sites) and they will bring it back to a U.S. port,'' he said.

The lingering damage to U.S.-Chinese relations will likely take some time to assess.

Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) said in Paris that he did not see lasting damage. ``I don't see anything that isn't recoverable,'' he said. ``I think we've stopped this process that was unfolding before it became more serious.''

Many members of Congress, however, said China may still pay a price, on matters ranging from trade and China's Olympic bid to possible American arms sales to Taiwan. Bush is to decide this month on Taiwan's request to purchase advanced U.S. weaponry. China vehemently opposes such a purchase.

Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle said, ``We have many important issues facing us, including challenges involving nonproliferation, human rights, Taiwan and China accession into the WTO (World Trade Organization (news - web sites)).''

``Progress on this agenda depends on rebuilding the trust that was damaged over the last 11 days,'' he said.

Crew To Be Debriefed

The crew is to be debriefed on the incident at U.S. Pacific Command headquarters in Hawaii and flown to Whidbey Island Naval Air Station near Seattle, where news of the impending release brought immense relief to anxious families.

``We're shooting to get them back with their families by Easter,'' said Admiral Dennis Blair, commander in chief of the Hawaii-based U.S. Pacific Command.

Bush, on a visit to Concord, North Carolina, earlier visited the parents of one of the detainees, Steven Blocher, 24, a Navy aviation electrician's mate.

``These good folks are patriots, as is their son,'' Bush told reporters at the end of his meeting with Bob and Sandra Blocher. ``They raised a boy who loves his country.''

Bob Blocher told Bush: ``This morning worked out even better than we had hoped.'' Pinned to his lapel was a yellow ribbon to show his wish for his son to come home.

Bush, who had taken a measured approach to resolving the crisis and resisted conservative demands for retaliation against China, got the call that the ordeal appeared to be over at 5:40 a.m. EDT from National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice (news - web sites).

``Good,'' he replied, leaning over and telling his wife Laura, ``It looks like the matter is going to be resolved,'' according to White House spokesman Ari Fleischer (news - web sites).

The announcement of the release came after U.S. Ambassador to China Joseph Prueher delivered the letter to the Chinese government on the incident.

Wednesday April 11 6:04 PM ET
Bush Says Crew Should Leave China in Couple Hours

GREENVILLE, N.C. (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) said on Wednesday a chartered plane that will land on China's Hainan Island shortly was expected to leave within hours with the 24 crew members of a U.S. spy plane on board.

``I'm pleased to report that a commercial charter airplane is close to landing on Hainan Island,'' Bush said in a speech at East Carolina University, sparking cheers from the audience and chants of ``USA, USA, USA.''

``The plane is expected to leave that island in a couple of hours bound for Guam and then Hawaii,'' he added to more cheers.

The plane took off from Guam earlier in the day to pick up the 24 crew members who have been detained since an April 1 mid-air collision with a Chinese fighter.

Beijing earlier announced it would allow the 21 men and three women crew to leave after receiving a letter from the U.S. ambassador saying Washington was ``very sorry'' about the loss of a Chinese pilot in the mid-air collision and for the U.S. plane's landing in China without verbal permission.

Wednesday April 4 5:38 PM ET
Tensions Over Plane Worry Okinawa

By DANIEL SMITH, Associated Press Writer

KADENA AIR BASE, Japan (AP) - The U.S. spy plane that was intercepted by China took off from this base in Okinawa, and Okinawans now fear being drawn into the escalating tension between the two superpowers.

Home to nearly 30,000 U.S. troops, this island off Japan's southern coast is strategically important for the U.S. military. China and North Korea (news - web sites) are a quick flight to the west. Russia's Pacific fleet is just a little farther away, to the north. Taiwan is just over the southern horizon.

For decades Okinawa has been a prime location for spying, with the famed but now retired SR-71 ``Blackbird'' spy planes deployed at Kadena.

But keeping watch is a dangerous game, and the capture of the U.S. Navy (news - web sites) EP-3E spy plane and its 24-member crew has driven home the risks again.

``The U.S. military plane flew out of Kadena,'' said an editorial Tuesday in the Ryukyu Shimpo, a local newspaper. ``We should not let the latest accident develop into a new seed of dispute between the United States and China.''

Though the plane took off from this U.S. air base, the Air Force's largest in Asia, officials here have generally refused to discuss the incident, referring queries back to headquarters in Hawaii or Washington.

They have stressed that the EP-3Es, like the one captured, are not based here, though the planes fly out of this and other U.S. bases in Japan periodically.

``It's more unusual than usual for us to have EP-3Es here,'' Navy spokeswoman Melody Scalfone said Wednesday.

Kazuhisa Ogawa, a Japanese military analyst, said U.S. intelligence activities off the Chinese coast have been increasing over the past two months, perhaps reflecting the desire of the new administration of President Bush (news - web sites) to show its strength.

``There is a high possibility that China, with its nuclear weapons, could be a threat,'' Ogawa said. ``If the relationship between the United States and China becomes tense, it is natural that Okinawa's importance will come under close scrutiny.''

He said the stepped-up U.S intelligence activities have ``the element of a dangerous game.''

The $36 million EP-3E is the Navy's only land-based aircraft for intercepting radio and other signals, and it has been used heavily in supporting NATO (news - web sites) forces in Bosnia.

Currently, RC-135 spy planes are a common sight on the Kadena base. When the famous SR-71 Blackbirds were deployed here, tourists would perch on a hill outside the base fence to watch them take off.

Wednesday April 4 6:20 PM ET
U.S. Expresses Regret Over China Pilot, No Apology

By Randall Mikkelsen

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States expressed regret on Wednesday over the loss of a Chinese pilot in a collision with a U.S. spy plane but spurned Beijing's demand for an apology.

The White House said it was up to China to avert an international incident over the stranded Navy EP-3 surveillance plane by returning its crew, which China's ambassador to the United States, Yang Jiechi, said was staying in the country pending an investigation.

``We regret that the Chinese plane did not get down safely and we regret the loss of the life of that Chinese pilot, but now we need to move on and we need to bring this to a resolution,'' Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) told reporters.

``We are using every avenue available to us to talk to the Chinese side to exchange explanations and move on,'' he said. Yang met Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage at the State Department, but left without comment.

State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Powell's statement reflected an ``evolution'' of U.S. understanding of the incident, but ``not a breakthrough.''

A U.S. Navy spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet on April 1, 2001 near Hainan Island, off the coast of China. President Bush said on April 3 that it was time for China to return the plane and its 24-member crew and said the incident could undermine U.S.-Chinese relations. (Reuters Graphic)

This one-meter resolution, color satellite image of the Lingshui military airfield on the southeastern coast of Hainan Island in the South China Sea, was collected at 10:12 a.m. local time on April 4, 2001 (10:12 p.m. EDT on April 3, 2001) by Space Imaging's IKONOS satellite. The U.S. Navy aircraft is visible and parked on a taxiway (north is up in this photo). (Spaceimaging.com via Reuters)

Yang earlier told CNN television that Washington owed Beijing an explanation and an apology for the collision, which Washington says was an accident.

Asked whether the crew of 24 would be released otherwise, Yang said, ``The U.S. side should shoulder all the responsibility and you should apologize to the Chinese side. Of course that's very, very important.''

U.S. Says It Not At Fault

His position echoed a demand delivered to the U.S. ambassador to China, Joseph Prueher, in a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan.

But White House spokesman Ari Fleischer (news - web sites) said Prueher had rejected apologizing. ``The accident took place over an international airspace, over international waters, and we do not understand any reason to apologize. The United States did not do anything wrong,'' Fleischer told reporters.

China has blamed the United States for the collision on Sunday of a Navy EP-3 surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter jet, but Washington called the matter an accident. The U.S. plane, with a crew of 21 men and three women, made an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island. The Chinese fighter was downed and its pilot was missing and presumed dead.

The mother of Navy crew member Josef Edmunds, Amanda de Jesus, told ABC television President Bush (news - web sites) should apologize to get the crew home. ``I would apologize and plead duress afterwards,'' she said.

Bush does not want to let the dispute become an international incident, Fleischer said.

``This was an accident, and he does not want to let it rise to that level. The best way to prevent it from rising to that level is for the Chinese to release our servicemen and women so they can come home,'' Fleischer said.

Tang, after the meeting with Prueher, accused the United States of being ``arrogant,'' using ``lame'' arguments, and making ''groundless accusations'' against China.

The White House declined to say the crew was being ''detained,'' but Powell told reporters on his plane late on Tuesday, ``That crew is still in detention.''

Yang said on CNN that the U.S. plane, flying ``very close'' to Chinese airspace, had made an abrupt turn and caused the collision with one of the two Chinese fighters that were shadowing it. Furthermore, the U.S. plane entered Chinese airspace without permission in order to land, although it had time to inform China of the incident, he said.

China's Investigation Pending

``The Chinese side has every right to carry out (an) investigation, so the crew members are in China, because the investigation is going on,'' Yang said.

U.S. defense officials said the plane's crew had destroyed all sensitive reconnaissance data aboard before the aircraft was taken over by the Chinese military, easing fears of a security lapse.

Yang rejected U.S. insistence that the plane was sovereign U.S. territory that should not be entered by the Chinese.

Fleischer also ruled out ending offshore surveillance flights, saying they were within U.S. rights.

Despite the rising tensions over the incident, the White House sought to keep it isolated from other areas of friction between the two major nuclear powers.

``Because it is a sensitive time ... there are times in international relations where the less said is the most productive,'' Fleischer said.

China's arrest of Chinese-born U.S.-based academic Gao Zhan was being viewed as a ``separate event,'' he said.

Asked whether the spy plane controversy could affect a U.S. decision due this month on a sale of arms to Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province, Fleischer said, the sale would be ''based on Taiwan's defense needs.''

He declined to say whether the U.S. perception of Taiwan's defense needs would be affected by the current dispute.

Asked whether it would affect Bush's plans to travel to China in October for an Asia-Pacific summit and a state visit, he said, ''We'll take it one step at a time.''

Tuesday April 3 10:35 PM ET
US Officials Visit Crew in China

By MARTIN FACKLER, Associated Press Writer

HAIKOU, China (AP) - China allowed American diplomats to meet the crew of a U.S. spy plane Tuesday for the first time since the plane landed on Chinese soil after a collision with a Chinese fighter jet, but there was no sign when they would be allowed to return home.

China blamed the United States for the collision and demanded an apology. President Jiang Zemin (news - web sites) demanded that the United States stop surveillance flights off China's coast.

It was too early Wednesday morning for Chinese officials to react to a warning from President Bush (news - web sites). The U.S. leader said that any further delay in returning the 24 crew members or the plane itself - full of high-tech equipment that U.S. officials fear China has now examined - could possibly damage already unsettled China-U.S. relations.

``This accident has the potential of undermining our hopes for a fruitful and productive relationship between our two countries,'' Bush said in Washington. ``To keep that from happening, our servicemen and women need to come home.''

China's government-run Xinhua news agency released pictures of the damaged Navy EP-3E at an air base on the southern island of Hainan. The pictures showed the plane's leftmost propellor broken and tears on the underside of its left wing.

``The entire crew is in good health,'' said Army Brig. Gen. Neal Sealock, the U.S. Embassy defense attache, one of two diplomats who visited the crew members. ``They are being well taken care of.'' He added, ``Our goal is to get them home as soon as possible.''

The Chinese laid down ground rules for the meeting, but the diplomats - with Chinese officials in attendance - were allowed to discuss the crew members' health, the operations during the emergency landing and standard procedures taken to protect intellignence, a senior U.S. official in Washington said on condition of anonymity.

As a result of the talks, the Bush administration believes the crew managed to destroy some of the intelligence information on the plane, the official said.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry (news - web sites) spokesman, Zhu Bangzao, said China's decision to allow the meeting showed its ``humanitarianism'' and desire ``to handle this case properly.'' Earlier, he said the crew's fate would be decided in light of a Chinese investigation. Asked when the crew would be released, Zhu replied: ``I don't know.''

``The U.S. should face the facts squarely, shoulder responsibility and apologize to the Chinese side instead of seeking excuses for itself,'' Zhu said in an earlier press conference.

In Washington, a U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it appeared Beijing would insist on an official U.S. government apology before allowing the crew to leave China. But no Chinese official has made any such promise publicly.

President Jiang Zemin said the EP-3E violated international law and intruded into Chinese airspace. ``The responsibility fully lies with the American side'' for the collision, Jiang said, according to Zhu. ``We have full evidence for that.''

Jiang called for an end to U.S. surveillance flights off China's coast ``so as to prevent similar accidents from happening again,'' Zhu said.

Xinhua said the United States should cooperate with China in investigating the incident and compensate ``China's loss of life and property.''

China said its fighter pilot, Wang Wei, parachuted out after the collision and was still missing Tuesday, despite a massive search. U.S. officials say China did not respond to an offer to help search for its missing pilot.

The meeting with the crew took place somewhere in or near Haikou, the capital of Hainan, a tropical island about the size of Maryland off China's southern coast. The collision occurred about 60 miles southeast of Hainan, a popular tourist destination 400 miles west of Hong Kong.

Zhu did not respond directly to questions about whether Chinese officials have boarded the plane. But he dismissed U.S. assertions that the plane was sovereign American territory and could not be entered without permission.

``If this plane is sovereign American territory, how did it land in China?'' Zhu said.

China ``has the right to investigate the whole incident as well as the plane that caused it,'' Zhu said.

U.S. military officials say the Chinese undoubtedly boarded the plane and examined its sophisticated equipment. ``We have every reason to think the Chinese have been all over the airplane,'' U.S. Ambassador Joseph Prueher said on ABC's ``Good Morning America.''

The U.S. military says the EP-3E was on a routine surveillance mission in international air space. Zhu said the plane ``made a sudden and big movement,'' hit the Chinese fighter.

U.S. military authorities say it was more likely that the faster, lighter Chinese plane brushed against the lumbering EP-3E, which is about the size of a 150-seater commercial jetliner.

The collision injects extra tension into relations between the United States and China, which have multibillion-dollar trade ties but often feel mistrust toward each other. Wall Street saw a large sell-off Tuesday, with the Dow down nearly 350 points, in part because of nervousness over China.

In China, the incident threatened to stoke anti-American feelings that linger after the 1999 NATO (news - web sites) bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia.

In the United States, the incident could heighten perceptions of China as a growing threat. However, Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) said Tuesday that it would not influence a decision on which weapons Washington will sell to Taiwan, an island that China claims as renegade territory.

The escalating dispute also affected U.S. stocks Tuesday with the Dow Jones industrials falling 292.22 points, or 3 percent. Analysts blamed the decline on the dispute and worries over company earnings.

Monday April 2 6:33 PM ET
Bush Demands U.S. Access to Spy Plane Crew in China

By Christopher Wilson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a standoff emerging as the biggest foreign policy test of his young administration, President Bush (news - web sites) demanded on Monday that Beijing grant immediate U.S. access to the crew of a Navy spy plane forced to land in China after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said China had offered to let U.S. consular officials visit the plane's 24 crew members late on Tuesday night Chinese time, but that that was not soon enough.

Emerging from a meeting with his top national security advisers, Bush made clear he was ``troubled'' by the Chinese government's inaction so far.

``The first step should be immediate access by our embassy personnel to our crew members,'' the president, who took office on Jan. 20, said in a terse, televised statement delivered outside the White House.

``I am troubled by the lack of a timely response to our request for this access.''

A Pentagon (news - web sites) spokesman said the United States had ordered three warships in the South China Sea region to move out of the area that and China expressed no interest in U.S. offers to help search for a Chinese fighter jet that crashed in the incident.

``The ships have been released to proceed on duties as assigned,'' the spokesman said.

Earlier a defense official had said the three destroyers were lingering in the region to ``monitor the situation,'' after the collision on Sunday morning Chinese time.

The official Xinhua news agency quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi as saying China had sent 11 ships and more than 20 planes to the crash area, but had not found the missing pilot from the Chinese fighter plane.

'Without Any Further Tampering'

Bush demanded that China return the Navy EP-3 maritime patrol plane ``without any further tampering'' -- revealing U.S. concern over the possibility of the plane's classified surveillance technology falling into Chinese hands.

U.S. officials said the last communication from the plane's crew on Sunday was that armed Chinese soldiers were boarding the aircraft, raising concerns over the security of one of the most technologically sophisticated U.S. surveillance planes.

Crews are trained to destroy spy gear in such an incident, but defense officials said they did not know whether the plane's crew was able to do so.

U.S. defense experts said on Monday that the United States was anxious for China to return the surveillance plane because it could give Beijing insight into what data were of interest and how the information was collected, U.S. defense experts said on Monday.

Shortly before Bush's appearance, the White House said it was in the interests of both countries to resolve the dispute swiftly.

Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan, on a visit to Paris, said he too hoped for a rapid solution to the impasse.

``I hope that an adequate solution can be found,'' Tang told reporters in Paris after meeting with French President Jacques Chirac.

Hong Kong's Cable TV network said senior military leaders from Beijing had gathered to discuss how to handle the matter.

The incident threatened to damage China-U.S. relations at a time when Washington faces a crucial decision on whether to sell advanced weapon systems to Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province. Beijing has made it plain that relations would suffer if the United States went ahead with the sale of destroyers equipped with Aegis radar systems or other sophisticated weaponry.

In Beijing, U.S. Ambassador Joseph Prueher, a retired admiral who once commanded U.S. forces in the Pacific, said China's refusal so far to allow U.S. officials contact with the crew of the surveillance plane so far was ``inexplicable and unacceptable.''

Two defense attaches from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and a third diplomat from the U.S. Consulate in Guangzhou were in Sanya city at the southern edge of the island, just west of the Lingshui military airport where the plane landed.

Aircraft Considered 'Sovereign U.S. Territory'

Earlier, a spokesman for the U.S. Pacific Command in Honolulu bluntly warned Beijing to stay away from the surveillance plane, a potential treasure trove of military intelligence for the Chinese.

``The entire aircraft is considered sovereign U.S. territory, and the Chinese are not to seize, inspect or board it without U.S. permission,'' said Lt. Cmdr. Sean Kelly.

Prueher said that without speaking to the crew, it was impossible to piece together events that led to the collision and the pilot's decision to come down in Hainan after issuing a ''Mayday'' distress call.

``The downside potential if we do not resolve this well, is fairly high because it can bleed over into some other areas.''

Both countries blamed each for the midair tangle during an apparently routine interception off the Chinese coast, where Chinese fighters and U.S. surveillance aircraft regularly play aerial games of cat and mouse.

China issued an angry statement saying the four-engine propeller-driven U.S. aircraft veered into the fighter and struck with its nose and left wing.

But the head of the U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. Dennis Blair, told a news conference in Hawaii it was probably an accident caused by a fighter bumping into the American plane.

Two Chinese F-8 fighters were scrambled to intercept the lumbering American aircraft, based in Okinawa, Japan

Israel Preparing for ‘Summer Offensive’

Monday, April 2, 2001

[USDefense.com] - Israel is preparing for a "summer offensive" intelligence officials say is in the works following last week’s Arab summit meeting, reports said Monday.

WorldNetDaily.com, quoting a Debka-Net-Weekly report, said Monday that Israel's March 28 helicopter gunship attacks against Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Force 17 elite guard "was not simply in response to the disastrous series of Palestinian attacks against Israeli civilians during the week."

Debka-Net-Weekly, a Mideast intelligence bulletin, said Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's decision to launch the attacks "was influenced most of all by intelligence reports coming in from the Arab League summit conference that opened in Amman on March 27."

Those intelligence reports claimed that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat had managed to convince Iraq and Syria to join in escalating the current Palestinian "intifada" against the Jewish state.

The WorldNetDaily report said Israeli intelligence officials "indicated that the last knots had been tied for launching a regional war, confirming the warnings issuing from sections of Israeli intelligence these last months."

Israeli intelligence said the Palestinian leader's efforts "went beyond Arafat's habitual maneuvers to draw the region into a general conflagration," thereby prompting Sharon and top Israeli military leaders to develop long-range military plans to circumvent, or at least blunt, any future attacks by combined Arab forces, the report said.

"In the name of pounding and disabling Arafat's machine of terror, the Israeli army is preparing a phased campaign that will at the same time improve its vantage points in readiness for a regional war," said the web newspaper, quoting the weekly Mideast bulletin.

"Control of ‘A Areas’ of the West Bank currently under Palestinian jurisdiction could give Israel the strategic edge against invasion from the East or the North," said the report.

Israeli intelligence officials have warned for months of a burgeoning alliance between Iraq, Syria, and Arafat, as the latter attempts to enlist military and financial assistance for the Palestinian cause against the Jewish state.

And true to form, analysts say, Sharon is responding to the mandate of his overwhelming election victory Feb. 6 against former Prime Minister Ehud Barak – to take a tougher stand against Palestinian factions, restore order, and increase regional security.

Some Israeli experts have said using more force to hem in terrorist factions would likely fail and lead to more attacks. But the Sharon government is said to be fed up with the violence and the attacks against Jewish citizens.

"Arafat got it right therefore when he accused Sharon of declaring war on him and his men. But he missed the point when he accused Israeli chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz of preparing a 100-day war," said the report.

Rather, Israeli military officials are planning for a 180-day campaign, said WorldNetDaily, quoting the Debka-Net-Weekly report.

Sharon and his advisors are "estimating a time scale of at least 180 days - longer if the entire region is caught up in the conflict," the report said.

Ultimately, the report said, Sharon seeks to eliminate Arafat from the region and take away his legitimacy and political clout, thereby replacing him with a more moderate Palestinian leader willing to agree to a series of drawn agreements aimed at settling differences between Jews and Palestinians.

Saturday March 31 1:15 PM ET
Clashes Erupt Along Kosovo Border

By LAURA KING, Associated Press Writer

SKOPJE, Macedonia (AP) - Ethnic Albanian rebels slipped across the Kosovo border Saturday and engaged Macedonian troops in a firefight, the army said. Macedonia's prime minister acknowledged that the guerrillas still posed a military threat despite a weeklong drive to stamp out the insurgency.

A military spokesman in the former Yugoslav republic said there were no casualties on the Macedonian side in the early morning exchange of fire, but the army said it was checking unconfirmed reports that one of the guerrillas was killed.

A rebel commander reached by mobile telephone said he was not aware of new fighting. But he said guerrilla units were operating independently in the mountains along the frontier and were not always able to stay in close contact with one another.

U.S. troops patrolling the border, meanwhile, detained 30 men suspected of being ethnic Albanian rebels crossing from Macedonia into Kosovo, U.S. spokeswoman Capt. Alayne Cramer said Saturday.

The men, who Cramer said were ``military age,'' were detained Friday in several groups. Also found with one group of men were several machine guns and sniper rifles, along with ammunition, Cramer said.

The NATO (news - web sites)-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo this week stepped up its efforts to help seal the frontier against rebel infiltration, but the rugged terrain makes it difficult to secure.

Word of renewed fighting came only a day after the army declared success in its nearly drive to flush the insurgents from strongholds in the hills along the frontier.

The firefight broke out before dawn and continued sporadically for hours near the village of Gracane, about six miles north of Skopje, the Macedonian capital, said military spokesman Col. Blagoja Markovski.

He said a force of about half a dozen rebels had made their way across the border from Kosovo and began sniping at a Macedonian army watchtower at Caska, near the Blace border crossing. The army responded with mortar and small-arms fire, he said.

Also Saturday, the Macedonian military said it had completed a mine-clearing operation in the Sara mountains above Tetovo, Macedonia's second-largest city. Last Sunday, the government rolled in tanks and heavy artillery and pounded suspected rebel positions in the steep hills overlooking the city.

Most civilians in the ethnic Albanian villages in the area had fled their homes before the government assault began. Some of the refugees are sheltering in Macedonian towns and villages away from the fighting; others made the arduous trek across mountain passes into Kosovo.

The government said its offensive was meant to drive the guerrillas out of the country prior to talks with leaders of the country's ethnic Albanian minority. It has refused to negotiate directly with the rebels, whom it considers terrorists who want to split up Macedonia.

The rebels say they want greater rights for ethnic Albanians in the Slav-dominated country.

Although the government has declared victory in its campaign to clear the border zone of rebel strongholds, the guerrillas say they have merely pulled back and regrouped.

Macedonia's prime minister, Ljubco Georgievski, said Saturday that the weeklong offensive had been the biggest military operation in the country's decade of existence as an independent state, involving 3,500 army troops and paramilitary police.

``This military operation was clear, urgent and precise...the aim was fulfilled,'' he told reporters. However, he added: ``The military threat is still not ended.''

Macedonian officials have expressed concern over the rebels' proven ability to infiltrate from Kosovo, and also fear the outmanned and outgunned guerrillas could turn to urban terror attacks if thwarted elsewhere.

Sunday April 1 3:21 PM ET
China Blames American Plane for Mid-Air Collision

By Andrew Browne

BEIJING (Reuters) - China accused a U.S. surveillance plane of ramming one of its fighters in mid-air over the South China Sea Sunday in a collision which threatened to blow up into a major diplomatic storm.

The U.S. aircraft made an emergency landing on China's southern island of Hainan.

U.S. officials immediately scrambled to try to secure the release of the 24 crew, who were all reported safe, along with the plane and its highly-sensitive surveillance equipment.

Undated file photo of a U.S. Navy EP-3 maritime electronic surveillance aircraft. A U.S. Navy EP-3 made an emergency landing in southern China on April 1, 2001 after a minor collision with a Chinese fighter plane, a U.S. Navy spokesman said. No one was injured. (Reuters - Handout)

China said one of its fighter planes had crashed as a result of Sunday's incident and rescuers were searching for the pilot.

An angry statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry (news - web sites) said Beijing had lodged a ``solemn representation and protest'' and reserved the right to seek damages.

It threatened further ``representations'' over the plane entering Chinese air space and landing without permission.

China-U.S. relations have only recently been fully restored after a U.S. plane on a NATO (news - web sites) mission bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in May 1999.

That incident sparked furious protests by stone-throwing crowds outside the U.S. embassy in Beijing.

According to the U.S. Navy (news - web sites) version of the incident, one of its EP-3 maritime patrol aircraft was on a ``routine surveillance'' mission in international air space when it brushed one of two Chinese F-8 fighters on an interception mission.

But China laid the blame squarely on the U.S. plane.

Plane ``Suddenly Veered''

``In accordance with international practice, the Chinese military aircraft were engaged in normal pursuit and monitoring activities of the U.S. military surveillance plane near China's coast,'' the Chinese foreign ministry statement said.

It said the U.S. plane ``suddenly veered'' toward the Chinese aircraft.

``The nose and left wing of the U.S. plane hit the Chinese plane and caused it to crash,'' the statement said.

China was making ``proper arrangements'' for the 24 U.S. crew, the statement added, without giving any details.

The U.S. ambassador to China, Admiral Joseph Prueher, met China's vice foreign minister Sunday ``in an initial meeting to resolve the situation,'' State Department spokeswoman Michelle King said.

President Bush (news - web sites), who was at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland, had been informed of the crash, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer (news - web sites) said.

He said the White House was ``closely monitoring'' the situation and expected China to return the crew.

``That is our expectation. That is the standard practice. We would expect them to follow it,'' Fleischer said.

The U.S. Embassy in Beijing was sending officers to Hainan to try to see the crew Monday local time.

``We've been assured they are safe and well,'' King said.

Mayday Distress Signal

A U.S. Navy statement said the American plane was damaged badly enough to issue a ``Mayday'' distress signal and make an emergency landing on a Hainan airfield. The incident occurred at about 9:15 a.m. Chinese time (0115 GMT) Sunday.

``One of our goals right now is to find out the extent of damage. We know the crew appears to be OK, and we want to find out what the status of the aircraft is also,'' said Air Force Lt. Col. Dewey Ford, spokesman for the U.S. Pacific Command.

One member of the Air Force, one Marine, and 22 Navy personnel were believed to be on board the plane, which operates from the Kadena Air Base in Japan.

The EP-3 is a four-engine, propeller-driven reconnaissance aircraft that uses electronic surveillance equipment to eavesdrop on ships and surrounding areas.

It has a nearly 100-foot (30-meter) wing span, is nearly 106 feet (32 meters) long, and has 24 seats. It is capable of flying for more than 12 hours and has a more than 3,000-nautical mile range.

``We expect that the (Chinese) government will respect the integrity of the aircraft and the well-being and safety of the crew in accordance with international practices, expedite any necessary repairs to the aircraft, and facilitate the immediate return of the aircraft and crew,'' a statement from the U.S. Pacific Command said.

U.S. Sen. John McCain (news - bio - voting record), a former Navy combat pilot who was shot down over Vietnam, said Chinese authorities should not enter or inspect the aircraft because of the sensitive equipment on board.

``I hope the Chinese will help us repair the airplane and get it off that island quickly,'' McCain, an Arizona Republican, told NBC's ``Meet the Press.''

Sino-U.S. Ties Strained

China claims sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including islands also claimed wholly or partly by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.

The United States officially takes no position on the territorial disputes, but insists that freedom of navigation must be maintained in the important sea route.

The collision comes amid a period of uncertainty and strain in China-U.S. relations under the new U.S. administration of President Bush.

There are concerns in Beijing that the new U.S. administration is more pro-Taiwan, inclined to stress ties with Japan over China and adopt a more confrontational approach on human rights.

China is particularly worried about possible U.S. sales of high-tech weaponry to Taiwan, including the Aegis radar system, and the prospect that Washington will press ahead with an anti-missile defense shield.

Thursday March 29 2:13 PM ET
Newsman, Villager Killed in Kosovo Border Shelling

By Beth Potter

NEAR (news - web sites) KRIVENIK (Reuters) - A Kosovo Albanian and a British journalist were killed Thursday when shellfire from Macedonia hit a village inside Kosovo.

It was by far the most serious spillover incident in two weeks of intense shelling close to the border with the U.N.-administered Yugoslav province as Macedonian forces try to drive ethnic Albanian insurgents from their territory.

The dead were named as Baki Krasniqi, a 19-year-old Kosovo Albanian, and Kerem Lawton, 30, of Britain, a producer for Associated Press Television News (APTN).

The pair were killed near the village of Krivenik. Local people said the fire came from Macedonian forces, who have been trying to flush out an ethnic Albanian guerrilla group operating near the Kosovo border.

A witness said the APTN crew had arrived at Krivenik and a cameraman had got out of their vehicle to film while Lawton parked. As he did so, a shell hit the vehicle.

The Associated Press said the cameraman, Syllejman Klokoqi, was unharmed.

In all at least 20 civilians were injured in Krivenik, a hilltop village close to the border. Troops of NATO (news - web sites)'s KFOR peacekeeping force in Kosovo also had a narrow escape in a similar incident.

Macedonian forces have been shelling ethnic Albanian guerrillas around the village of Gracani on their side of the border for five days. They denied responsibility for Thursday's deaths.

``The commander of operations in the Gracani area has said no Macedonian forces have used fire against targets inside Kosovo,'' said Defense Ministry spokesman Georgi Trendafilov. ``We have sent a special investigative commission to the area.''

Asked who else might be responsible, army spokesman Blagoja Markovski said: ``Everything is possible, this is a dirty war.''

Last Friday, Trendafilov acknowledged that Macedonia had struck across the border on at least one occasion. ``It's true that we attacked targets inside Kosovo because they were fortifying positions to launch a grenade attack on our security force,'' he said.

An ethnic Albanian guerrilla commander fighting near the Kosovo border said NATO must know who fired the shells.

``Finding out who fired is very simple and can be verified very simply by NATO forces, by analyzing the trajectory of the shells,'' the man code-named Sokoli told Reuters by telephone.

``We do not have heavy artillery. The biggest caliber we have is 82mm,'' Sokoli said, apparently referring to a mortar.

Nato Wants The Facts

In Brussels, NATO spokesman Mark Laity said senior NATO representatives in Skopje were seeking the facts.

``We have asked the government for clarification. We are obviously very upset about the tragedy and we are concerned to ensure no such thing happens again. But we obviously need to find out exactly what happened,'' Laity said.

KFOR said one of its patrols had withdrawn earlier in the morning after mortar rounds exploded as troops went forward to identify a group of armed men, possibly ethnic Albanian guerrillas escaping the Macedonian attack.

Later, Reuters reporters heard two groups of three detonations in Krivenik, which lies behind a border ridge about a mile from the frontier.

Krivenik is an ethnic Albanian village of steep muddy lanes and wattled fences at the southern tip of a leg of Kosovo that juts into northern Macedonia, where security forces launched an offensive against guerrillas Wednesday.

Beyond it lies an empty high plateau where U.S. and Polish troops of KFOR have been observing the battle for the past few days. The monitoring included U.S. Apache combat helicopters with laser range-finders, capable of video-recording the firing for later analysis.

Reuters reporters said two Apaches were on station hovering near Krivenik when the shelling occurred.

APTN's Lawton, who had an English father and Turkish mother, was based in Turkey before moving to Kosovo last year.

Colleagues described him as outgoing, highly motivated and a mainstay of the Pristina press corps.

``Final'' Push To Oust Rebels

The Macedonian attack, after four days of pounding the hills around the ethnic Albanian village of Gracani, was billed as a final drive to clear their territory of rebels.

Reporters near Gracani, just nine miles north of the capital, Skopje, heard sporadic mortar fire. Journalists who ventured close to the area came under small arms fire and a police source confirmed opposition had not yet been quelled.

``They are still fighting. We estimate we face numbers ranging from 10 to a respectable force,'' the source said.

Smoke billowed from the northern hills stretching toward the border with Kosovo, where the guerrillas have rear bases.

A commander of the National Liberation Army rebel force, speaking by telephone, said the guerrillas still held positions inside a strip of land along northern Macedonia.

NATO forces in Kosovo were due to deploy 400 additional troops on the border Thursday to cut rebel supply lines.

``This is to stop east-west resupply between NLA and NLA, `` said Major Fergus Smith, spokesman for the British sector of the NATO-led KFOR force in Kosovo. The forces will fire starburst shells at night to illuminate hillside tracks.

Macedonia launched its assault at Gracani and further east near Tanusevci a few days after a major push against the guerrillas above Tetovo, the northwestern city regarded as the unofficial capital of Macedonia's ethnic Albanian minority.

The guerrillas say they want greater rights for the Albanian minority, one-third of Macedonia's population.

But the government says the rebels are ``terrorists'' who have infiltrated Macedonia from Albanian-dominated Kosovo to split the multiethnic republic and seize territory.

Pushing the last rebels back toward Kosovo would clear the way to addressing the political demands of the ethnic Albanians, who complain of discrimination.

Western leaders have urged the Slav majority to defuse the resentment that has stoked the Albanian rebellion and roused fears of another major Balkan war.

Officials in Skopje say talks between leading political parties on ways to ease ethnic tension may start soon.

Thursday March 29 12:29 PM ET
Mass Defection of Bosnia Croat Troops Reported

By Philippa Fletcher

SARAJEVO (Reuters) - Bosnian Croat nationalists said on Thursday virtually all Croat troops -- around 8,000 -- had quit their posts in support of a call for self-rule, raising the stakes in a standoff which threatens Bosnia's fragile peace.

``As of two o'clock (7 a.m. EST) today, there are no more than 50 members in the military barracks of the HVO,'' said a statement by a self-styled Croat National Congress using the war-era name for the Croat part of the Muslim-Croat force.

``But they are also preparing to leave them. At the moment military facilities are guarded by members of the guard service as normal and in line with the agreement with (the NATO (news - web sites)-led Stabilization Force for Bosnia) SFOR,'' it said.

The international civilian and military officials who oversee efforts to heal the wounds of the 1992-5 conflict declined to confirm or deny the figure, while urging the troops to resist the nationalist call and return to their barracks.

Government officials also refused to specify how many had quit, but said hundreds in northern Bosnia had remained loyal.

``We have practically two categories -- one completely politicized...and we have virtually no way of accessing this category, except several individuals among them who have already left it,'' said Defense Minister Mijo Anic, a moderate Croat.

``But we have enormous pressure on the ground from people who want to remain in the army and we will go ahead with the reformation of the (Croat contingent of the) army, you will see that tomorrow in Orasje,'' he told reporters, announcing a ceremony to form a new Croat brigade in the northern town.

Revolt Unarmed, So Far

The revolt is the most serious challenge to the Dayton peace accords which divided Bosnia into a joint Muslim-Croat federation and Serb republic since they were signed in 1995, but officials underline that the rebellion has so far been unarmed.

``They're still guarding their weapons storage facilities, which means there are still people in barracks, I don't have exact numbers to give you,'' said Captain Andrew Coxhead, a spokesman for SFOR.

Bosnian Croat nationalists split from the federation and declared self-rule earlier this month in response to their exclusion from the government following elections in November which brought a non-nationalist coalition to power.

It was hard to gauge whether the walk-out would lead to the formation of a separatist Croat force.

``The soldiers will stay out of the barracks until a political solution on Bosnia's internal structure can be reached granting the Croat people full constitutional equality with the other two constituent peoples,'' the Congress statement said.

Bosnia's top international peace overseer, Wolfgang Petritsch, has offered to discuss Croat concerns, but only with those ready to take part in legal structures of the state. The nationalists counter that it is the new government that is illegal.

``Thus, despite disinformation, pressure and blackmail by the illegal federation defense ministry, around 8,000 members of the HVO have obeyed the recommendation in the declaration of the Croat National Congress,'' the Congress said.

The Bosnian Croat news agency Habena earlier quoted the Congress, which is spearheaded by the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party, as saying that over the next few days it would pay $225 to each soldier who had quit.

Western officials said it was difficult to establish to what extent the soldiers who left their barracks genuinely supported the revolt and to what extent they felt under pressure.

``It really is difficult to get hard figures, to measure the extent of this as a mutiny,'' said one. ``While a lot of Croats are unhappy, a lot are also unhappy with the HDZ,'' he added.

Israel Prepares to Strike Iranian Missiles: Report

Monday, March 26, 2001

[USDefense.com] - Israel is making preparations to strike at medium range Iranian missiles in Lebanon in advance of an Arab summit meeting tomorrow, a report said on Sunday.

WorldNetDaily, quoting the DebkaFILE - a Mideast intelligence bulletin - said Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had discussed the possible attack during last week's visit with President George W. Bush in Washington, D.C.

Also, the report said Sharon discussed the attack with the Wall Street Journal.

According to Mideast intelligence bulletin, Iranian "Pager" surface-to-surface missiles were moved into Lebanon through Damascus, Syria, last year. After arriving by air, the missiles were then driven overland to Lebanese bases.

The missiles reportedly have a range of 120 km (about 75 miles) and are within range of several heavily-populated Israeli towns and cities, said DebkaFILE.

Once set up at Lebanese bases, the missiles passed to the direct command of Iranian Pazdaran (Revolutionary Guard) officers who maintain them, said the report.

And, Sharon reportedly told Bush last week that both their predecessors -- Ehud Barak and Bill Clinton -- had received the intelligence data on the Iranian missiles in Lebanon, but decided not to let it out so as not to abort the Israeli troop withdrawal from south Lebanon in August 2000, said the report.

In response to the increased threat, Israel Defense Force commanders have begun assembling troops and equipment along Israel's northern border, in preparation for "large-scale exercises."

The report said that Bush gave his support to Israel for striking the missile bases and "at the core of the blossoming radical Middle East bloc linking Baghdad, Gaza, Tehran, the Hezbollah and possibly Damascus, before it ripens."

"A comprehensive Israeli offensive directed simultaneously against the Iranian force commanding the missile strength in Lebanon, the Hezbollah and the Syrian arms supply routes from Damascus airport, at the same time taking out Palestinian bases, would all fall within the province of the understandings Sharon reached with President Bush last Tuesday in the White House," the report said.

Syria has 35,000 troops in Lebanon. They - along with Hezbollah militia units and the Lebanese army have been placed on alert - have also been placed on alert, the report said.

"The timing is significant: In three days time, on Tuesday, the Arab League summit opens in Amman," said the report. "The impression is strong that military preparations in advance of that meeting are a lot more hectic than the diplomatic ones."

Israel has struck Mideast targets before when potential enemies have appeared ready to launch or build systems capable of inflicting huge losses.

In 1982, Israeli warplanes conducted a sneak attack against Iraq's Osirak nuclear power plant, fearing Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons.

And, Israeli has struck targets in Lebanon a number of times, including missile sites, guerrilla bases and enemy military bases.

Mideast war in 72 hours?
Israel prepares for possible strike at new Iranian missiles in Lebanon
© 2001 WorldNetDaily.com

25 March 2001

Israel is making preparations for a possible military strike against new Iranian missile positions in Lebanon -- possibly within the next 72 hours, reports the DEBKAfile intelligence bulletin.

The report says that before returning home to Israel last week, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told the Wall Street Journal and President Bush about the presence in Lebanon of Iranian Pager surface missiles with a range of 120 kilometers -- capable of striking heavily populated central Israel.

The missiles were flown in last year through Damascus military airport and transported by truck to bases in Lebanon, the report continued. From there they passed to the direct command of Iranian Pazdaran (Revolutionary Guard) officers who maintain them.

Also, according to DEBKAfile, the Israeli Defense Force has begun assembling soldiers and military assets on the northern frontier -- in readiness for a large-scale exercise. DEBKAfile cites sources as saying the Syrian army, Hezbollah militia units and the Lebanese army have been placed on alert. Syria has 35,000 troops occupying Lebanon and controls the central government and military forces.

"The timing is significant: In three days time, on Tuesday, the Arab League summit opens in Amman," said the DEBKAfile report. "The impression is strong that military preparations in advance of that meeting are a lot more hectic than the diplomatic ones."

Earlier, DEBKAfile reported that Washington had given the green light to Sharon to strike "at the core of the blossoming radical Middle East bloc linking Baghdad, Gaza, Tehran, the Hezbollah and possibly Damascus, before it ripens." The decision on whether to administer the blow before or after the Arab summit was left to Sharon, in consultation with Washington.

"A comprehensive Israeli offensive directed simultaneously against the Iranian force commanding the missile strength in Lebanon, the Hezbollah and the Syrian arms supply routes from Damascus airport, at the same time taking out Palestinian bases, would all fall within the province of the understandings Sharon reached with President Bush last Tuesday in the White House," reports DEBKAfile.

The report says the recent announcement by Israel Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer extending the tenure of Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz by a year is part of the general plan.

Sharon also reported to Bush this week that both their predecessors -- Ehud Barak and Bill Clinton -- had received the intelligence data on the Iranian missiles in Lebanon, but decided not to let it out so as not to abort the Israeli troop withdrawal from south Lebanon in August 2000.

Editor's note: DEBKAfile's electronic news publication is a news-cum-analysis live wire, on line round the clock seven days a week. A weekly edition, DEBKA-Net-Weekly, is now available througth WorldNetDaily.com. Drawing on DEBKAfile's unique sources, analytical talents and forward-looking insights, it is presented as a compact, intelligence-angled weekly package. It is available as a direct e-mail feed or via the Internet.

Sunday March 25 2:29 PM ET
Fighting Escalates in Macedonia

By JEROME DELAY, Associated Press Writer

GAJRE, Macedonia (AP) - Government troops punched through rebel lines and moved into a hillside village Sunday, spraying houses with bullets as they spearheaded an offensive to push ethnic Albanian insurgents back from Macedonia's second-largest city.

While not claiming all-out victory, Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski said government forces were doing well, asserting that the thrust to ``clear the terrain of terrorists ... is being carried out successfully, and already key positions have been taken.''

The fighting has brought combatants into their closest quarters yet in the six-week conflict near Macedonian border with the Serbian province of Kosovo, where ethnic Albanians constitute a majority. NATO (news - web sites), which has policed Kosovo since expelling former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic (news - web sites)'s troops in 1999, wants the Macedonian conflict defused to prevent a wider Balkan war.

The rebels say their aim is limited to more rights for ethnic Albanians within Slav-dominated Macedonia, but the government accuses them of seeking independence and drawing on Kosovo for fighters and weapons.

In Washington, President Bush (news - web sites) said he hoped U.S. and NATO efforts will prove effective in helping Macedonia quell the conflict.

``I'm hoping, of course, that the government is stable and we're able to seal off the border to prevent people and arms from getting to the rebels,'' Bush told reporters as he returned to the White House after a morning jog.

On Sunday afternoon, Macedonian troops led by seven armored personnel carriers and two tanks moved into the village of Gajre, in the hills just northwest of Tetovo, breaking through a rebel roadblock and forcing the insurgents to pull back.

Houses and cars were burning in the village, and bullets sent roof tiles flying as troops blasted houses suspected of harboring rebels. Two helicopters strafed the hillsides.

A lone man ran to free his cows from a burning barn. He then shot a thin stream of water from a garden hose on his barn and house, in a vain attempt to staunch the flames.

After the fighting ended, dozens of terrified people who had been hiding in a cellar surfaced and rushed into the thick forest around the village.

``Our operations gained intensity and are progressing according to plan,'' said Antonio Milososki, a government spokesman. ``Several terrorist positions have been taken. ... We will go on until the final takeover of all terrorist positions.''

After taking Gajre, the troops regrouped and set up positions overlooking Llavce, another rebel-held village just north of Gajre.

Reporting another government success, state television said Macedonian troops also had taken Tetovo Kale, the ancient Turkish fortress cresting a hill that it said had been a rebel stronghold.

Two soldiers, one police officer and four civilians were slightly injured, Milososki said. Police spokesman Stevo Pendarovski said the four civilians were a family riding in a taxi that entered a combat area. The number of rebel casualties was not known.

In Skopje, the Macedonian capital, the national security adviser, Nikola Dimitrov, pledged that government troops would ``do everything to protect the civilians.''

``If this continues, I believe we are very much close to our aim of stopping militant terrorism and regaining our sovereignty,'' he said later.

The government advance was preceded by an early morning mortar barrage meant to soften up the insurgents before the army's move into the foothills. Amid the thud of exploding rounds, a convoy of armored cars then rumbled down the center of downtown Tetovo before turning toward Gajre, 21/2 miles away.

As they approached Gajre, the personnel carriers stopped and about 200 soldiers disembarked and fanned out behind them. Other vehicles pulled six 155-mm cannon up the hill.

The troops looked nervous but determined. ``We are fighting for Macedonia,'' said one soldier who refused to give his name. ``For everybody here.''

Slavs in Tetovo cheered the Macedonian government tanks as they clattered down the cobblestone streets, but in Gajre, ethnic Albanians expressed outrage at the attack, asserting government soldiers were targeting the houses of innocent civilians instead of insurgent positions.

``They think that every house is a bunker,'' said Nuri Junozic, 46.

Defense ministry spokesman Gjorgji Trendafilov said, however, that the army ``is doing its best to avoid unnecessary destruction of civilian homes'' and Macedonia was in touch with NATO troops in Kosovo during the operation.

A Macedonian army commander said the rebels were well armed.

``The commanders on the ground confirmed that we are facing an organized terrorist resistance, including sophisticated weapons, cannons and mortars,'' said Col. Blagoja Markovski.

Although ethnic relations with the majority Slavs had been relatively trouble-free, substantial numbers of the ethnic Albanian minority felt they are being treated as second-class citizens. The struggle appears to have radicalized a large segment of Macedonia's Albanians.

Macedonian President Boris Trajkovski planned to meet Sunday evening with Arben Xhaferi, leader of the largest ethnic Albanian party and a partner in the coalition government.

The government push came amid a separate move in neighboring Serbia, the main Yugoslav republic, to curb ethnic Albanian militants there. Hundreds of Yugoslav army and police troops, acting with NATO approval, rolled into two more sectors of a tense Serbian buffer zone bordering Kosovo to police the region.

Germany's Defense Ministry said Saturday that it plans to send about 100 paratroopers to Tetovo to shield its soldiers based there to perform supply duties for the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo.

Saturday March 24 2:21 AM ET
China Warns of Military Buildup - Post

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Chinese President Jiang Zemin (news - web sites) on Friday urged the United States not to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, warning that such sales would spur China to speed up its own military modernization program, the Washington Post reported in Saturday editions.

Among other items under consideration, Taiwan has requested that the U.S. sell it the Aegis ship-based battle system, a sophisticated system for detecting and shooting down incoming missiles. China opposes the sale of advanced weapons to Taiwan.

Taiwan wants the United States to sell it four destroyers equipped with the Aegis system, priced at about $1 billion each. It would give Taiwan some defense against a Chinese missile attack, the Post reported.

The United States must provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, under U.S. law, but the law is vague about whether American troops would be sent to defend the island, the Post reported.

``If the United States were to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan such as the Aegis system, that would be very detrimental to China-U.S. relations,'' Jiang told the Post.

``The more weapons you sell, the more we will prepare ourselves in terms of our national defense. This is logical,'' the Chinese president was quoted as saying.

Jiang also expressed optimism that China and the United States can weather problems in their relationship and urged the Bush administration to ``think strategically,'' the Post said.

Jiang's comments came in an hour-long interview with Washington Post editors and reporters in Beijing and touched on a broad range of topics. But security concerns, strategy and the issue of Taiwan dominated his comments, the Post said.

``No matter who administers the government in the United States and no matter what kind of slightly different language he might use, one thing is very certain,'' Jiang was quoted as saying. ``The United States has to look at U.S.-China cooperation from a strategic standpoint, looking at strategic interests.''

Jiang said that some of his best friends are Republicans. He cited the late President Richard Nixon, former cabinet members Henry Kissinger and Brent Scowcroft and former President George Bush, the post said.

``The father of President Bush (news - web sites), Bush Sr., came over to China many, many times and had many meetings with me. ... We believe Bush Sr., will definitely push Bush Jr. to bring U.S.-China relations to a new level,'' he told the newspaper.

In an overview, the Chinese president said he has advised Western leaders ``that they think their own political system should be applied to every corner of the globe. That is a very wrong idea, and the idea itself is very undemocratic. ... If the 1.2 billion (people in China) can get enough to eat and have proper clothing and shelter, that would be a great contribution China has made to the world. ... And so in the meantime, it is also a contribution to bringing about stability in the whole of Asia and the wider world,'' Jiang said.

In response to the Bush administration's criticism over the detention of an U.S.-based Chinese researcher who Beijing accused of activity damaging to state security, Jiang was quoted as saying that he does not know the people involved.

``If they had been subjected to a certain legal procedure, it means they must have violated the law to a certain extent,'' he told the Post.

Jiang suggested during the interview that he was perplexed by Washington's interest in the case of researcher Gao Zhan.

Gao is a Chinese researcher based at American University, who was detained by Chinese police in February and separated from her husband and son, Andrew, 5.

Her husband and son were held separately for 26 days after her arrest, with the boy isolated from both parents.

``I have a big question,'' Jiang was quoted as saying. ``The United States is the most developed country in the world in terms of its economy and its high tech; its military is also very strong. You have a lot of things to occupy yourselves with. Why do you frequently take special interest in cases such as this?''

Jiang left Shanghai for Beijing in 1989 following the bloody crackdown on democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square to replace deposed party leader Zhao Ziyang. He has been the general secretary of the Communist Party of China since that time.

Friday March 23 6:15 PM ET
Macedonia Ready to Strike, West Urges Restraint

By Fredrik Dahl

Triggered Fears Of War

Foreign ministers of the 15 European Union states and Russia, meeting at an EU summit in Stockholm, said a political settlement would be the only lasting solution to the insurgency which has triggered fears of a new Balkan war.

``It is extremely important that the government use proportional violence and not take any offensive military action because that would only damage their own interests,'' said Foreign Minister Anna Lindh of current EU president Sweden.

NATO Secretary-General George Robertson took a similar line, saying Macedonia had isolated the rebels and should take an early political initiative to address Albanian grievances.

``I hope the Macedonians will continue to be restrained and not engage in an unnecessary military confrontation with these people and focus on uniting the country,'' he said.

Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson, chairing the summit in Stockholm, said EU leaders and Macedonian President Boris Trajkovski had agreed on the need for a broad political dialogue with elected ethnic Albanian representatives.

Trajkovski ruled out negotiating with the rebels but conceded his country still had some way to go to integrating its local Albanian population.

Despite the violence, both Skopje and NATO voiced confidence that an all-out conflict would be avoided. ``No-one believes there will be war in Macedonia,'' Trajkovski said in Stockholm.

``I do not think there is going to be another Balkan war, nor need there be,'' said Robertson.

Thursday March 22 12:26 PM ET
NATO Keeps Up Pressure for More Troops

By Yann Tessier

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO (news - web sites) on Thursday kept up pressure on member nations for extra troops in Kosovo to help the alliance-led peacekeeping force secure the province's borders with Macedonia, where fighting has flared once more.

Mark Laity, a special adviser to NATO Secretary-General George Robertson, said KFOR was boosting security on the border to prevent ethnic Albanian fighters from getting into Macedonia.

For the moment, KFOR was using troops already stationed in Kosovo and from an operational reserve in the province, he said.

``But the forces there are pretty stretched. It's a question of sustaining the effort,'' he told Reuters Television.

``And to sustain the effort, the North Atlantic Council has agreed that we need more troops,'' he said, referring to NATO ambassadors.

So far, according to a NATO official, only one unnamed country has answered the alliance's call for extra troops. The United States and Britain have both said they have no plans to send additional troops or send forces to Macedonia to help the former Yugoslav republic put down the rebellion.

Earlier, NATO cleared the way for Serbian troops to enter a large part of the buffer zone around Kosovo which has been off-limits to them since the summer of 1999.

A NATO official said the alliance had given permission to General Carlo Cabigiosu, the Italian general in charge of KFOR peacekeepers in Kosovo, to hand parts of the three-mile-wide zone over to Serbian forces from this weekend.

Timing Depends On Talks

``The earliest it could happen would be on Saturday,'' the official said. The final timing would depend on the outcome of talks between KFOR and the Serbian authorities, he added.

Serbian soldiers will face tight regulations on the type of equipment they could take into the areas.

The move is part of NATO's phased plan to allow Serbian forces back into the buffer zone from which they have been excluded since 1999 under a NATO-Belgrade agreement ending an alliance bombing campaign that drove Serbian forces from Kosovo.

In the past year, ethnic Albanian guerillas have used parts of the buffer zone, or Ground Safety Zone, as a safe haven from which to base their attacks on forces in Serbia and northern Macedonia.

In a bid to stifle supplies to the guerrillas, Serbian troops were last week allowed into a 25-square-kilometer area in southern Serbia at the junction of its border with Macedonia and the boundary of Kosovo.

Although extensive, the new territory the Serbian forces will be allowed into has not been the focus of major tensions with ethnic Albanian fighters.

It includes a sector called Charlie West in the mountains of Montenegro where the zone meets the border with Albania.

There are ethnic Albanians in the towns of Plav and Gusinje. The area has mostly been free of trouble, although a Liberation Army of Plav and Gusinje has been mentioned and Orthodox priests reported stoned.

Cabigiosu has also been allowed to hand over Sector A, a 185-mile strip of buffer zone which runs along Kosovo's internal boundary with Montenegro and Serbia right up to the town of Vranje.

It does not include the more troubled area to the south where ethnic Albanian fighters are currently observing a cease-fire with the Serbians.

Thursday March 22 2:55 PM ET
Annan: Macedonia Fighting Could Destabilize Balkans

By Irwin Arieff

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan (news - web sites) warned on Thursday the fighting in Macedonia was a ``very serious'' situation that threatened to destabilize the entire Balkans region if not brought under control.

He said ethnic Albanian guerrillas involved in the fighting had themselves recognized Macedonia's territorial integrity. He called on them to realize that violence was not the way to achieve their goals.

``They should heed the call of the Security Council, which yesterday unanimously condemned extremist violence, including terrorist activities, and appealed for dialogue among all legitimate parties,'' Annan told a news conference, during which he announced he would seek a second, five-year term as secretary-general.

Guerrilla attacks have picked up markedly in recent weeks against Macedonian targets, raising concern around the world that the fighting could spark a broader conflict in the war-weary region brimming with ethnic tensions.

A Macedonian policeman checks the bodies of two ethnic Albanians shot dead in the town of Tetovo, some 30 miles northwest of the capital Skopje, March 22, 2001. The police opened fire at the men after they tried to throw an object looking like a handmade grenade at the checkpoint several hours after security forces started shelling hills near Tetovo where ethnic Albanian guerrillas are believed to be entrenched. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

In the Macedonian capital Skopje, a government spokesman said a decision had been made to launch an offensive against the guerrillas who had taken positions in the mountains along the border with the southern Serbian province of Kosovo.

Macedonian guns started firing on rebel-held hills, ignoring a unilateral cease-fire declared by the guerrillas on Wednesday in an effort to delay a threatened assault.

The rebels say they are fighting to improve the rights of Macedonia's large ethnic Albanian minority. Macedonia insists they are separatists from Kosovo, where ethnic Albanians are a majority, seeking to win more territory should Kosovo gain independence from Yugoslavia.

The Security Council resolution approved on Wednesday also urged the NATO (news - web sites) force in Kosovo to do more to cut off any movements by guerrillas or illegal arms across borders and to confiscate weapons inside Kosovo.

Kosovo has been under U.N. and NATO control since June 1999 after the Western alliance conducted an 11-week bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, launched to stop a crackdown by now-ousted President Slobodan Milosevic (news - web sites) on ethnic Albanian separatists in Kosovo.

Thursday March 22 3:22 PM ET
UN Chief Annan Declares He Will Seek Re-Election

By Evelyn Leopold

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Kofi Annan (news - web sites) announced on Thursday he would seek a second five-year term as the secretary-general of the United Nations (news - web sites), saying he wanted to work for human rights and peace and fight poverty.

``There is a great deal still to be done to make the United Nations --this indispensable organization -- into an effective instrument humanity needs in this new century to fulfill the hopes for peace, development and human rights,'' Annan said.

``If asked I am ready to serve,'' Annan told a news conference.

Annan, a Ghanaian who turns 63 in April, completes his first five-year term on Dec. 31. The 15-member Security Council and the 189-member General Assembly are expected to make a decision after September. Some 53 African nations have already given him a ringing endorsement.

Immediately after Thursday's announcement, Annan received praise from the European Community and Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites), whom he will see on Friday before meeting President George W. Bush (news - web sites) for the first time.

The Clinton administration five years ago vetoed a second term for his predecessor, Boutros Boutros-Ghali of Egypt, thereby helping Annan to power.

``We think he has done an excellent job. He's been a very, very effective secretary-general,'' Powell told reporters. ``And in due course we will announce our specific position with respect to supporting him or voting for him.''

Praise From United States

State Department spokesman Philip Reeker called Annan an ''outstanding'' secretary-general. Within the United States, U.N. Secretary-General Annan is widely held in high regard both personally and for his strong advocacy of reform in the U.N. system,'' Reeker said.

And Sweden, which holds the current presidency of the European Union (news - web sites), issued a statement in Stockholm, saying: ``The EU warmly welcomes this announcement.''

Annan told reporters he had questioned whether he could summon the same energy for another five years and whether he wanted to inflict his grueling schedule on his family, especially, his wife.

``This has been a very demanding and challenging responsibility to carry, which inevitably has made exhausting claims on my family and my personal life,'' he said.

But ``after careful thought and close consultation with my family and my wife Nane, who has been my strongest support in times both good and bad, I am pleased to tell you today that my answer is 'yes,''' Annan said.

``If the member states decide to offer me a second term as secretary-general, I shall be deeply honored to accept,'' he declared.

A Career Diplomat

A career U.N. diplomat, Annan noted he had devoted most of his professional life to the United Nations ``which I firmly believe embodies humanity's highest aspiration.''

Low-keyed and personable, Annan has acquired a sort of superstar status, particularly in developing countries. He is greeted by large crowds and regarded as a moral leader of an organization that breeds great hopes but often cannot move without money and decisions from its leading members.

Annan is married to the former Nane Lagergren, a Swedish artist and lawyer and the niece of Raoul Wallenberg, the diplomat who saved tens of thousands of Jews in Hungary from Nazi death camps toward the end of the Second World War. He has two adult children by his first marriage to a Nigerian.

The only challenge Annan is likely to face is from Asian nations who say it is their turn to field a candidate. But they have not nominated anyone and diplomats say they would have a hard time challenging the incumbent.

Re-electing Annan would give Africa three terms, rather than the customary two. Annan's predecessor, Boutros-Ghali, an Egyptian, was secretary-general from 1991 to 1996.

Annan must gain the support of the five permanent members of the Security Council before the nomination goes to the 189-member General Assembly, expected this autumn.

The United States, Britain, France and Russia are expected to support him, although they will not say so publicly. China is waiting to see if Asia puts up a candidate but its envoys noted Beijing is also sensitive to the wishes of the 53 African nations who stand behind Annan.

Annan received strong backing last week from the African group at the United Nations, which launched a reelection campaign, in an apparent attempt to preempt other contenders.

Annan has spent more than 30 years in the United Nations system, and has achieved the nearly impossible feat of walking through political minefields nearly unscathed. He rose to become the head of U.N. peacekeeping operations in March 1993.

He escaped blame for not ending the war in Bosnia, the disaster of U.N. troops in Somalia and the genocide in Rwanda even as he apologized in long reports on what went wrong.

Monday March 19 6:54 AM ET
North Korea Lashes Out at U.S., Says It Risks War

By Elaine Lies

TOKYO (Reuters) - North Korea (news - web sites) fired the latest volley in an increasingly strident attack on the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush (news - web sites) Monday, saying Washington risked war if it did not soften its stance.

The statement followed a series of weekend anti-U.S. diatribes, couched in rhetoric reminiscent of the Cold War era, in which the Stalinist nation slammed the two-month-old Bush administration.

Washington risked seriously harming relations if it were to reconsider a key 1994 agreement to help North Korea build nuclear reactors, Tokyo-based monitoring agency Radiopress quoted North Korean state-run broadcasters as saying Sunday.

Such a move would be ``tantamount to a declaration of war,'' it quoted broadcasters Radio Pyongyang and Korean Central Radio as saying.

The broadcasts cited reports that conservative U.S. lawmaker Jesse Helms was urging the abandonment of the agreement, under which Pyongyang agreed to freeze its nuclear program in return for two light-water reactors and annual supplies of fuel oil.

``If this is the attitude of the United States, we will have to adopt an extreme hard-line stance,'' the broadcast said. ``If the U.S. imperialists demand war, we will respond a thousand-fold.

``If this is the will of the U.S., we feel no particular need to be bound by an agreement that may or may not be fulfilled.''

Difficult Agreement

North Korea has for some months now blamed its acute shortage of energy on delays in fulfilling the agreement. Under the terms of the pact, the United States, South Korea and Japan jointly lead the $4.6 billion light-water reactor project. Washington provides the mandated fuel oil.

However, progress on the reactors has been hampered by disagreements on how to shoulder the costs. The reactors are unlikely to be completed until 2007.

This month, a spokesman for Pyongyang's Foreign Ministry said the resulting energy shortage was making it difficult for North Korea unilaterally to keep its moratorium on launching satellites and missiles in force.

South Korean (news - web sites) officials said last month they did not expect the Bush administration to seek changes to the agreement.

Relations between North Korea and the United States had begun to warm toward the end of Bill Clinton's administration and Clinton nearly went to Pyongyang in his final days in office to seal a deal that would have mothballed the communist state's long range missile program in exchange for better ties with Washington.

Bush has made clear that he sees North Korea as a threat.

In talks with South Korean leader Kim Dae-jung (news - web sites) this month, Bush pointedly questioned whether Pyongyang's enigmatic leader Kim Jong-il would honor any new arms control pact.

Washington views Pyongyang as one of the main exporters of missile technology to the world and U.S. officials regularly cite it as one of the reasons the United States wants to build a missile defense shield to ward off potential attacks.

Nevertheless, while denying that it poses any missile threat, Pyongyang said Monday that it would not launch pre-emptive strikes against the United States.

``Regarding our side, we have no intention of launching pre-emptive attacks against the United States,'' said the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper.

``What we want to do is to resolve confrontation between DPRK and the United States and improve relations,'' the daily said, according to Radio Pyongyang monitored in Tokyo.

Bush has rehabilitated the expression ``rogue nations'' to describe countries such as North Korea. The term was dropped by the United States after a historic North-South summit last June.

In return, North Korea is now turning up the rhetorical heat, threatening to pull out of missile and nuclear accords.

Sunday, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), monitored in Tokyo, urged all ``anti-imperialist'' forces around the world to ''strengthen their unity and fight against the U.S. imperialists with concerted efforts.''

``The progressive people of the world should heighten vigilance against the U.S. 'double-faced tactics' and smash it to pieces,'' it said.

Tuesday March 20 6:09 PM ET
Macedonia's Isolated Rebels Reject Ultimatum

By Fredrik Dahl

TETOVO, Macedonia (Reuters) - Ethnic Albanian rebels were being given until midnight Wednesday to withdraw, surrender, or face a Macedonian Army onslaught with tanks and artillery in the hills behind the city of Tetovo.

``After this deadline, Macedonian security forces will continue using all its means against positions of terrorists until they are completely destroyed,'' the government said.

You'Ll Gain Nothing, Eu Warns

The ultimatum was issued hours after the army started using tanks to shell rebel positions for the first time.

European Union (news - web sites) security chief Javier Solana, visiting Skopje to back the government, told the gunmen they would achieve nothing by force and advised his hosts not to negotiate.

``Nothing, and I mean nothing, will be obtained by violent means,'' Solana told reporters. ``It is a mistake to negotiate with the terrorists and we do not recommend it,'' he added.

The six-power international Contact Group on the Balkans would show ``zero tolerance'' toward the gunmen, said Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini of Italy, a member of the group along with the United States, France, Germany, Britain and Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov was due to hold talks in Skopje Wednesday, after Moscow warned the violence could spiral out of control unless stamped out -- by force if needed.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and French President Jacques Chirac added their weight to demands for an end to the fighting, and respect for Macedonia's territorial integrity.

Political Gains

A rebel commander earlier said his fighters over Tetovo were dug in and had not been dislodged by Macedonian gunfire.

``We are not afraid of them,'' Sadri Ahmeti, a leading member of the self-styled National Liberation Army, told Reuters at his base in the mountain village of Selce.

A Macedonian policeman fires his sniper rifle in Tetovo, southwest of the capital Skopje, March 20, 2001. Macedonian forces and ethnic Albanian rebels fought pitched battles here in a seventh day of violence that has raised grave concern over regional stability. (Dimitar Dilkoff/Reuters)

Macedonia's two main Albanian parties signed a statement in the presence of Solana urging ethnic Albanian guerrillas to lay down their arms and return to their homes. They condemned ``the use of force in pursuit of political objectives.''

A newly formed radical party which espouses the same ''federalist'' aims as the rebels refused to sign.

Nearly 8,000 people have fled their homes in Macedonia to escape the fighting, with half of them crossing into Albania. Most went to friends and family, relief organizations said.

Reporters in Tetovo heard a steady boom of tank cannon in the late afternoon saw thick smoke rising from woods and houses.

The guerrillas say they are fighting for better rights for Albanians in Slav-dominated Macedonia, where many feel they have been treated as second-class citizens throughout a decade of supposed power-sharing in independent Macedonia.

The grievances get sympathy in the West, which urges emancipation but has no patience for another conflict. Whatever the outcome, the rights of Macedonia's one-third Albanian minority are firmly on the political agenda.

Monday March 19 1:34 PM ET
Macedonia Sends Tanks Into Tetovo

By DANICA KIRKA, Associated Press Writer

TETOVO, Macedonia (AP) - Government tanks rumbled into Macedonia's second-largest city Monday to fight ethnic Albanian insurgents, while NATO (news - web sites) pledged to ``starve'' the rebels by cutting supply lines from neighboring Kosovo.

A spokesman for the Macedonian government, Antonio Milososki, pledged ``definite action'' - a major counterattack - saying field commanders would give the order ``soon.''

The appearance of heavy armor in Tetovo also seemed to be an attempt by the government to show that the army was part of efforts to prevent the monthlong guerrilla war from expanding further southward from its origins along the border with Kosovo.

The government has relied primarily on police and anti-terrorist units to fight the rebels, leading to speculation about the loyalties of the conscript army, particularly its ethnic Albanian members. The rebels have called on all ethnic Albanians in Macedonia of fighting age to join their ranks.

Fighting ebbed by mid-afternoon Monday, and only the occasional boom of government artillery lobbing shells into the foothills skirting Tetovo was heard, leaving the city of 80,000 at its quietest since late last week. Still, edgy residents continued to flee.

The rebels, who say they are fighting for greater rights for ethnic Albanians, insist their battle is not being instigated by the former Kosovo Liberation Army in Kosovo, a province of Serbia, the main Yugoslav republic.

But the latest uprising shares the aspirations of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo for self-determination, if not outright independence, potentially in a ``greater'' Kosovo expanded with ethnic Albanian parts of Macedonia and southern Serbia.

Although ethnic relations in Slav-dominated Macedonia have been relatively trouble-free - an ethnic Albanian party is a partner in the government - substantial numbers of the minority feel they are treated as second-class citizens.

European Union (news - web sites) foreign ministers meeting in Belgium agreed on measures for Macedonia that included technical aid for a census - one of the demands by the rebels, who claim the number of ethnic Albanians is underreported.

Four government tanks were initially sent to Tetovo. Later Monday, one more tank, eight armored personnel carriers and eight army trucks were seen entering the city.

As the army boosted its presence, NATO Secretary-General Lord Robertson said the international force in Kosovo was moving more troops to the border with Macedonia to cut off the supply lines to insurgents.

``We are determined to starve this limited group of extremists of the means'' of carrying on the fighting, Robertson told reporters in Brussels.

Macedonian Foreign Minister Srdjan Kerim said his government was not asking for the alliance to cross the border.

``The Macedonian security forces are able and will be able to take care of the security of our country'' once NATO cuts off the rebel supply lines.

The fighting was making it difficult for humanitarian organizations to get shipments of medical supplies and other goods into Kosovo, creating ``a growing hardship for the population,'' said Michael Keats, the U.N. spokesman in Pristina. He said the hospital there has only two days' worth of oxygen and was anxiously awaiting emergency supplies.

-

Key demands made by Macedonia's ethnic Albanian insurgents, to the Albanian language service of Germany's Deutsche Welle earlier this month:

- Changes in the Macedonian constitution to declare the country ``a state of two constituent peoples - Macedonian and Albanian.''

- End of alleged discrimination against ethnic Albanians in political institutions.

- The release ``of all political prisoners,'' presumably a reference to six suspects in custody while facing trials for terrorism in connection with a series of bombings in 1999.

- The implementation of ``neutral international mediation'' to resolve differences between Macedonia's Albanian minority and the Slavic majority.

- The carrying out of a census by international organizations to determine the size of the ethnic Albanian community - variously estimated between 22 percent and 30 percent of the country's 2 million people.

- Foreign governments take a ``neutral stand'' in the conflict.

- ``Macedonian mothers'' not allow ``their sons to become victims of ambitions of Macedonian authorities.''

Palestinians Press for U.N. Force
The Associated Press, Fri 16 Mar 2001

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — For the second time in three months, Palestinians are pressing the U.N. Security Council to send a security force into Israel's occupied territories, despite staunch objection from Israel and the United States.

A similar proposal was voted down in December, but Palestinian U.N. envoy Nasser Al-Kidwa insisted Thursday that things are different now because the situation in the territories has deteriorated, the U.S. and Israeli governments have changed and the Security Council has five new members. He wants a new vote next week.

The December resolution was defeated after intensive lobbying by the United States, Israel's strongest ally. The Palestinians and their supporters couldn't muster the necessary nine votes in the 15-member council.

Al-Kidwa predicted success in a new vote, but any move toward creating such a force still could face possible defeat because the United States — which has veto power — remains opposed to any proposal Israel objects to.

Acting U.S. ambassador James Cunningham countered that the peace process must begin in the region, not the Security Council.

``Suggesting that the council can somehow impose itself between the parties and play a constructive role by `observing violence' only serves to divert the parties from the absolute necessity to meet and shape their shared destiny,'' he said.

To find a compromise, European countries on the council have started talking to the Palestinians' supporters among developing countries.

``We've said we're looking for ways of negotiating an outcome that is more forward-looking than the current Palestinian text,'' said Britain's U.N. ambassador, Jeremy Greenstock.

``We're not just in the game of leaving the U.S. and the Israelis absolutely alone,'' Greenstock said.

Al-Kidwa said the Palestinians want a U.N. observer force at the minimum.

Israel's U.N. ambassador, Yehuda Lancry, said his government would support a resolution backing a resumption of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and calling for an end to the violence — but it will ``stand firmly'' against any international observer mission.

Both Al-Kidwa and Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres lobbied the council at back-to-back private meetings on Wednesday.

At an open Security Council meeting Thursday, more than 30 countries spoke, and virtually all — except the United States — had harsh words about Israel's role in the violence.

Speaking on behalf of the Arab group, Ambassador Mohammad Samhan of the United Arab Emirates demanded that the council ``bring the highest degree of pressure to bear on the Israeli government to force it to immediately cease its long-term aggression against the Palestinian people and to lift the siege against cities.''

Albanian rebels bring Balkan war closer
By Patrick Bishop in Mijak on the Kosovo-Macedonian border

The Telegraph UK - March 16 2001

ETHNIC Albanian gunmen fought long battles with Macedonian security forces on the edge of the country's second city, Tetovo, yesterday, bringing closer the prospect of a new Balkan war

The hills on Macedonia's north-eastern frontier reverberated with mortar fire last night as Macedonian troops pressed on with a so-far unsuccessful operation to drive rebels from their base and quell the uprising before it engulfs the country. Carl Bildt, the United Nations Balkans envoy, said: "I am very alarmed. This is one of the worst pieces of news to come out of the Balkans for many years."

In Macedonia's worst violence since it won independence from Yugoslavia a decade ago, scores of rebels took up positions in the outskirts of Tetovo and opened fire on special forces who replied with mortars and heavy machine-guns. Last night, crowds of residents were fleeing the area by car or on foot, carrying bags full of belongings as minibuses arrived to ferry the panicked civilians away from the fighting.

Ljubco Georgievski, the Prime Minister, said it was too early to declare a state of war but added: "Those who want to cause war in Macedonia should know that we will use all means at our disposal and we will not be selective in choosing our allies if we are forced to . . . including Nato."

The latter option seems a forlorn hope for the moment as alliance officials said there were no plans to send combat troops to Macedonia and the fighting was a domestic issue. Macedonia, with its large ethnic Albanian minority, has up to now avoided the bloodshed that marked the break-up of Yugoslavia.

But the West has long feared that a conflict there could suck in neighbouring Greece and Bulgaria, which have old claims to the region. The Nato general in charge of international peacekeepers in neighbouring Kosovo gave warning last night that the Macedonia fighting could destabilise the province.

Lt-Gen Carlo Cabigiosu, an Italian, said: "Any kind of tension is worrying, not only for the stability of Macedonia but also for what is going on in Kosovo." Tetovo is a symbol of the aspirations of Macedonia's Albanians. They make up about 30 per cent of its population of 200,000.

The fighting there began yesterday morning when up to 200 gunmen took up positions on the Sarr mountains on the northern edge of the city and began shooting at Macedonian special forces who replied with fire from mortars and heavy machine-guns. The ensuing gun battles caused hundreds of residents, most of them Macedonians, to flee to the capital, Skopje.

The shooting died down at 3.30pm, but last night residents said Tetovo was deserted as the population took police advice to stay indoors from 6pm to 6am. Early casualty reports said only that two Albanians in the city had been injured by stray bullets. In clashes on Wednesday a civilian was killed and 14 people were wounded, 11 of them policemen.

As troops took up positions, some aiming sniper rifles at the mountains, shooting intensified. Although some people from the closest buildings in the Macedonian quarter of Tetovo quit their homes in fear, others stayed to cheer on the troops. An armoured personnel carrier took up a position at the end of a narrow street and fired long bursts from a heavy machine-gun at the mountainside.

Grenades were heard exploding and the woods filled with smoke. A political crisis was developing last night as fears deepened that the tiny and poorly equipped Macedonian security forces are incapable of containing the rebels, who boast that they have the ability to strike anywhere in the country.

The government is believed to be considering introducing martial law, which would put enormous strain on the moderate Albanian DPA party, which is a partner in the ruling coalition. Its leader, Arben Xhaferi, has offered to leave the government if Albanians want him to. The decision would inevitably hasten the polarisation of the two communities that the rebels are working to bring about.

There was also sustained fighting yesterday around Malina Mala, just inside Macedonia's north-western border with Kosovo. The sound of light artillery fire rolled off the hills as Macedonian troops continued a sweep begun on Monday to dislodge about 200 rebels who had been holed up in a group of mountain hamlets.

Some reports said fighting had spread to Lipkovo, 12 miles north-east of Skopje. Nato-led Kfor troops on the Kosovo side of the border are supposed to act as a deterrent but have clearly failed to prevent the build-up of the rebels, the National Liberation Army, who partly rely on Kosovo as a rear base and jumping-off point.

The continuing violence has extinguished hopes that the NLA actions would be short-lived. Mr Georgievski said: "At first, we thought they were just criminals, but according to our information now it seems that they have strong political and logistic support from structures in Kosovo."

The rebels claim they want not to break up Macedonia but to create a federation of Albanian and Macedonian autonomous areas.

Links :

15 March 2001: Yugoslav army returns to Kosovo
14 March 2001: Ceasefire test in Kosovo buffer zone
13 March 2001: Macedonia launches attacks on Albanians
12 March 2001: Albanian rebels shun peace deal with Serbs
11 March 2001: Yugoslavia given green light to fight Albanians
10 March 2001: Balkan killings provide bloody snub to Nato
9 March 2001: Nato acts to avert new Balkan war
7 March 2001: Macedonia 'is ready to fight'
6 March 2001: Balkan war fear as Bulgaria offers troops to Macedonia
3 March 2001: Nato 'too timid' over guerrillas
24 February 2001: Nato forces face new threat in Balkans

A report on Israeli military build up
Regional-Israel, Politics, 3/7/2001

In its issue on March 3, the Kuwaiti daily al-Rai al-Am published an Israeli military report which unveiled that top priority is given to preparations by the Israeli army to the probable regional war and that the Israeli military leadership is preparing for the eruption of a comprehensive war in the Middle East.

The report stressed that in the dramatic scenario of the Israeli army that the Palestinians territories will witness acts against Israel, the Israeli forces to be deployed along the borders and Arab missiles to be fired against main cities in Israel and long- range missiles from Lebanon to hit the lower and higher Galilee.

The report said that Israel cannot wage a continuous air war against Iraq but the air weapons can only carry out an air invasion in the depth and " punish Iraq and try to deter Saddam," noting that eliminating the untraditional danger can be only made in collaboration with the International alliance led by the USA.

The report revealed also several preparations on that all Israeli military arms will depend in the coming three years on the military alliance with the US to strike and deter Saddam Hussein and overcome its military and missile forces.

U.S. SEES WAR AS LIKELY IN M.E.

M.E News line - March 4 2001

TEL AVIV [MENL] -- The United States sees war as an increasingly likely prospect in the Middle East.

U.S. officials and diplomats said a major aim of the administration of President George Bush is to prevent the outbreak of a regional war. But they said an escalation of the current mini-war between Israel and the Palestinians appears likely.

"We are living in difficult times and I fear we are on the brink of an even more serious situation," U.S. ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk said on Friday. "The volatility of the situation contains within it the very real potential for an even bigger explosion."

Indyk urged both Israel and the Palestinians to launch efforts to reduce the tension. The ambassador stressed that the United States cannot stop the violence.

Iraqis outsmarted the US-UK smart bombs

The London Herald - Feb 28 2001

IAN BRUCE

IRAQ managed to decoy 20 of the 25 special standoff weapons dropped in the joint US-UK raids near Baghdad two weeks ago by fooling their guidance systems into exploding hundreds of yards short of their targets.

Nato intelligence sources say only one of the five radar sites and command centres attacked was destroyed, two others sustained damage, and two were unscathed and remain operational.

It is believed that the Iraqis used a combination of jamming and false signals to confuse the new Raytheon joint standoff weapons' global positioning system. The 40-mile range smart bombs depend on a last-second satellite fix to guarantee a direct hit.

The US carried out a dress rehearsal to test the weapons a few days before the actual raids on Iraq. The 66 bombs launched by US navy aircraft achieved 100% success. In action, they chalked up an 80% failure rate.

A source told The Herald: "The standoff weapons have only been available since 1999. They were developed to minimise the risk of civilian casualties in the new era of global scrutiny and damaging propaganda.

"The Americans first thought that there might be a software problem, but the dry run bomb strikes have ruled that out. With global positioning, the weapons should be spot on target.

"But if you can emit a powerful enough signal to alter the satellite information being received by the bomb on its final approach, accuracy goes out of the window. Against hardened military sites, you need a direct hit to be sure of a kill.

"An aim point error of just a couple of hundred yards spells the difference between total destruction and a light peppering with shrapnel and minimum blast damage.

"Fortunately in the circumstances, the joint attack weapons were not the only hardware used on February 16. At least one key site was taken out completely and there was damage and disruption at two others."

The attack on the five key air defence targets was planned with information received from Yugoslav military sources. Until the fall of Slobodan Milosevic last year, the Serbs had been sharing technical data and intelligence with the Iraqis.

The latest Iraqi trick of targeting allied aircraft with long-range radars and then launching missiles at them from unrelated positions was pioneered by the Serbs during UN intervention in Bosnia and Nato's aerial assault during the Kosovo conflict.

They downed one British Harrier, an American F16 and a Nighthawk F117, the first stealth aircraft ever shot down in combat.

US sources say privately that it is "only a matter of time" before the technique brings results for Saddam Hussein.

Saddam's deployment during Powell visit brought region to brink of war

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COMFriday, March 2, 2001

WASHINGTON — Iraq responded to U.S. air strikes on Feb. 16 by deploying thousands of troops from six divisions to positions near the Jordanian border, triggering military alerts in Tel Aviv, Washington and in several Gulf capitals.

Western diplomatic sources said that in response, Israeli air force jets flew toward Syria and U.S. and British warplanes attacked Iraqi targets near Mosul on Feb. 23. The Iraqi troop movements were then halted.

U.S. defense sources said the deployment ordered by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein included military vehicles and artillery. Iraqi surface-to-surface missile batteries were not seen but were believed being prepared for operations.

The Iraqi deployment was a key issue during the visit to Israel by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell last weekend, Middle East Newsline reported.

"We are talking about a worrisome development that comes despite our attacks on Saddam's anti-aircraft batteries," a U.S. defense source said.

"It appears we are dealing with a man who is not afraid and could act on moment's notice."

The sources said Saddam's troop deployment near the Jordanian and Syrian border appeared to constitute a message to the Bush administration. They said the deployment was ordered after the first attack on Iraqi aircraft batteries around Baghdad on Feb. 16.

This was the third time since October that Saddam has moved troops near the Jordanian and Syrian border. In late January, Saddam withdrew most of his troops from the western border area and returned them to their bases in Baghdad.

On Sunday, Israeli warplanes flew twice over Beirut. In an unusual move, the Israeli military acknowledged the overflights as Prime Minister-elect Ariel Sharon threatened to bomb Syrian targets in Lebanon.

Arab allies of the United States, however, expect additional demonstrations of strength from Saddam. They said several Gulf states have raised what defense sources termed a "Saddam surprise" with U.S. officials.

So far, the sources said, U.S. and British air strikes have done little damage to Iraqi air defense systems. They said Iraq has developed the capability of sheltering batteries as well as quickly repairing damage.

Pentagon spokesman Craig Quigley acknowledged that U.S. air strikes on Iraqi air defense systems have not produced permanent damage. "Is it permanent?" Quigley asked. "No. You can replace or repair systems such as these that have been damaged."

At the same time, however, Iraqi opposition sources are believed to have bombed a section of Baghdad on late Saturday. Iraq has acknowledged the attack and blamed Israel and the United States. One Iraqi was reported injured.

The Saddam regime is estimated to have up to 25 SAM-3 and 10 SAM-6 batteries, bolstered by French surveillance radars. Baghdad is known to have produced Thomson-CSF radars under license, systems that were later upgraded by Chinese, Russian and Yugoslav experts.

Baghdad also has the Volex radar, which underwent a recent upgrade. Saddam plans additional upgrades and has expanded his effort to obtain advanced technology and weapons components.

The London-based Sunday Telegraph said Saddam has expanded Iraq's embassies in Belarus and Russia and a brigadier general will head a new military intelligence bureau in Moscow. The newspaper said Russian radar and missile equipment have been smuggled into Iraq from Iran.

Report: Israelis consider new action

Thursday, 1 March 2001 1:48 (ET)

Report: Israelis consider new action


 WASHINGTON, March 1 (UPI) -- Citing "unbearable" violence, Israeli
officials are considering retaking Palestinian territory. After five months
of violence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israeli military and civilian
officials have concluded that the situation is no longer tenable and they
will have to do something about it soon, The Washington Post reported
Thursday.

 Among options being discussed is the possibility of reoccupying territory
controlled by Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority, according to Israeli
security sources.

 "The situation, as it is, is unbearable," said Maj. Gen. Moshe Yaalon, the
military deputy chief of staff. "Within a few weeks or months, we will have
to decide what to do with it. There is a consensus on that,." he told The
Post.

 Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz, the Israeli military chief of staff, said the
self-governing Palestinian Authority is becoming a "terrorist entity"
instead of a peace partner.

 He blamed Arafat and his security aides for orchestrating a month-long
escalation of violence against the Jewish state, saying the Palestinian
leader had given Islamic militants and his own security personnel a "green
light for terror."

 Plans to take back at least some of the territories from which Israeli
troops began withdrawing in 1994 have been on the books for several years
and are constantly reviewed. In the past few months, the army has undertaken
an intensive effort to dust off and reevaluate these plans at the general
command, battalion and brigade levels, sources said.

 About one-fifth of the West Bank and two-thirds of the Gaza Strip are
fully controlled by Arafat and his 40,000-member armed police and security
forces.

 Palestinians have consistently vowed to resist fiercely any Israeli
attempt to reoccupy their part of the territories, which Israeli forces
captured in the 1967 Middle East war and have withdrawn from in stages
beginning in 1994 following the signing of the Oslo peace accords.

 Meir Dagan, a retired major general who has advised Sharon on security,
said he would not rule out incursions into Palestinian-controlled areas, but
he said he was not in favor of reoccupying them, The Post reported.

 "I don't consider the . . . lines [between Israeli- and
Palestinian-controlled territory] as holy, and if it's a necessity to cross
them to deal with terrorists, I don't see any boundaries or refuge," he
said.

Iraq-Syria pipeline said reactivated in violation of sanctions
By David Rudge

HAIFA (February 27) - Iraq is allegedly earning hundreds of millions of dollars by smuggling oil onto the international market with Syria's assistance, in breach of UN sanctions and the international embargo on Iraqi oil sales.

According to some estimates, the operation would yield around $ 1.5 billion in cash in a full year, money that Saddam Hussein would undoubtedly use to bolster his regime and expand the acquisition and development of weapons of mass destruction.

The reports have apparently aroused concern in the US and Secretary of State Colin Powell was expected to raise the issue in his meeting yesterday with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The crude oil is reportedly being pumped from Kirkuch in northern Iraq via a 1,300 kilometer-long pipeline to the Syrian port Banyas, where Syria borders on the Mediterranean.

The pipeline had been inoperative for 20 years, since the Iran-Iraq Gulf War in which Syria sided with its strategic ally, Iran.

Recently, however, there have been reports that it has been reactivated and that large oil tankers have been seen making regular calls at the Banyas port, apparently to take on large quantities of crude from the pipeline.

Iraq maintains that the flow of oil has only been to test the pipeline after renovations and repairs had been carried out.

Western intelligence agencies, however, have recently recorded markedly increased shipping at Banyas, which has been going on for about six months.

According to the reports the quantity of oil being exported via the port is around 200,000-300,000 barrels a day, far more than Syria's normal oil export.

Syria, which also uses the Banyas port for shipping its own oil, is reportedly paying $12 a barrel to Iraq, less than half the price in Europe. The remainder, estimated at about $15 per barrel, remains in Damascus. On a yearly basis, this would yield around $1.5b. for Iraq and about $2b. for Syria.

Iraq is banned from exporting any of its oil except under the auspices of the UN which allows the money from sales to be used solely for purchasing food, medicines, and other essentials for the Iraqi people.

"The Iraqis have been trying to break the embargo for years now by smuggling oil via Jordan and through the Kurds via Turkey because Saddam Hussein needs the cash to keep his regime in power," said Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor, director of the newly-established Center for National Security Studies at Haifa University.

"Saddam also has to finance his obsessive plans to amass stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction which is becoming more and more expensive because he cannot buy any of the needed materials on the open market.

"He has been moderately successful in these smuggling operations but not to the extent of causing concern in the West because the amounts of money involved have not been enough to justify international action. The reports of the reactivation of the Kirkuch-Banyas pipeline, however, is a different matter. It is a lot of money and would constitute a serious breach of the UN oil-for-food-and medicines program."

Ben-Dor said that Syria would have no qualms about a business arrangement with its former enemy for specific tactical purposes.

"It doesn't make a major difference in the relationship between the two countries, with Syria steering clear of any strategic alliance with Iraq, but it would serve the purposes of both on a purely monetary basis," he said.

"The Syrian economy is in an absolute shambles and therefore Bashar Assad's regime has a great deal of incentive to gain some additional income to strengthen the economic infrastructure prior to any further reforms, albeit modest ones, of the political and economic set-up.

"The Syrians calculate things very carefully, and only embark on these kinds of adventures when they feel that the benefits outweigh the potential dangers.

"Apparently they feel that it would be difficult for anyone to attach any blame [about allowing Iraq to pipe oil to a Syrian port] or take steps against them and that it is something that doesn't pose a serious threat to the regime," Ben-Dor added.

Tuesday February 27 12:13 PM ET
Iraq Calls Powell's Stand 'Rubbish' And 'Stupid'

By Evelyn Leopold

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Iraq on Tuesday called Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites)'s comments on easing U.N. sanctions ''rubbish'' and ``stupid'' while U.N. officials were hopeful for a meaningful dialogue on disarmament with Baghdad.

As a second day of high-level talks opened, U.N. Secretary of State Kofi Annan (news - web sites) hoped his discussions, the first with a Baghdad delegation in years, would be able to ``tackle all the key issues, to be able to move forward.''

Expectations are low that the talks that began on Monday will yield any concrete results. But some U.N. Security Council diplomats deemed them positive if Iraq considered the talks the beginning of a dialogue rather than a one-shot session.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, the head of Baghdad's delegation, said he wanted to continue the talks with Annan after his delegation leaves New York.

``We need more than one round of talks and dialogue because there are really huge dossiers,'' he said. ``So the consensus of the dialogue in round one is the continuation of the dialogue.''

But al-Sahaf scoffed at Powell's statement on allowing more civilian goods to reach Baghdad but tightening control on military hardware.

Calling Powell's position ``rubbish from a propagandist, not from a foreign minister,'' Sahaf said: ``He is trying to play on words in a very awkward way and I pity him.''

He contended Iraq had met all requirements of a 1991 Gulf War (news - web sites) resolution that gave conditions for lifting the embargoes, imposed in August 1990 after Baghdad's troops invaded Kuwait, but the ``sanctions are still there, still in place.''

``Now ... we are hearing stupid statements from the foreign minister of the United States of America, talking about clever sanctions, as if all of what has been done since 1990 is stupid,'' Sahaf said.

Al-Sahaf also shrugged off a deal between Washington and Damascus to put Iraq oil exports to Syria under U.N control, saying that Iraq was not pumping oil there.

Industry sources say a pipeline between Iraq and Syria has been pumping about 100,000 barrels of Iraqi oil a day since November, bypassing the U.N. system and paying revenues straight into Baghdad's pocket.

On Monday, al-Sahaf ruled out allowing U.N. weapons inspectors to return to Iraq even if the sanctions were scrapped. If they did, he said, they had to visit all countries in the region and ``first Israel because they have atomic arsenals and all other arsenals.''

``There will be no return for any inspectors to Iraq -- even if the sanctions are totally lifted,'' al-Sahaf said.

A key condition for lifting the embargoes, imposed when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, is allowing arms inspectors to check on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

Iraq has refused to let the weapons experts back into the country since December 1998. They left on the eve of a U.S.-British bombing raid intended to punish Baghdad for what they called its failure to cooperate with weapons searches.

For the United Nations (news - web sites), Annan will have little to negotiate until the Security Council agrees on a common position. France, Russia and China want an immediate suspension of the sanctions, while the United States and Britain are reviewing their policies.

Powell, who has heard sharp criticism of U.S. policy during his Middle East tour this week, said on Monday he wanted to let in more civilian supplies to Iraq but tighten controls on military items.

The United States has blocked close to $3 billion of goods to Iraq in the Security Council's sanctions committee, including electricity grids, water pumps and telecommunications gear, on grounds the military could benefit.

Western diplomats believe Washington has undercut its arguments on humanitarian supplies by the ``holds'' it has put on 1,600 contracts for Iraq, an action criticized frequently by Annan and other U.N. officials.

Powell said Washington aimed to rebuild consensus around a modified package of sanctions against Iraq in time for an Arab summit on March 27.

Tuesday February 27 1:21 PM ET
Top U.S. Official Invites Plan for Ousting Saddam

By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush (news - web sites)'s choice for Deputy Defense Secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, said on Tuesday he would be ``very interested'' to see a plan for the Iraqi opposition to oust President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) by force.

Wolfowitz, in remarks which highlighted differences of approach under Bush toward Iraq, left the door open to eventual use of U.S. forces to back an opposition enclave in Southern Iraq meant as a base for operations against Saddam.

Some other leaders, including Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites), who has just ended a tour of the region to discuss U.S. Iraq policy, are openly skeptical of the opposition's ability to unite and effectively oppose Saddam.

Wolfowitz was asked at his confirmation hearing by the Senate Armed Services Committee (news - web sites) whether he still favored, as he advocated in the past, using U.S. military force to back an opposition enclave.

``It would depend on what the opposition forces are capable of doing,'' Wolfowitz replied. ``I haven't yet seen a plausible plan (for overthrowing Saddam) today. But I'd be very interested in seeing one,'' he said.

Overthrow Saddam Or Contain Him

Analysts say there is a difference of emphasis among Bush aides on U.S. Iraq policy, whether to focus more on overthrowing Saddam or on containing him and reviving U.N. inspection of his weapons.

Powell, on his tour of Middle East and Gulf states in the last few days, has sought to reinvigorate and reform the 10-year-old sanctions, imposed after Saddam's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, which have been eroding in recent years.

Both Wolfowitz, a close advisor to Bush during his election campaign last year and a senior Pentagon (news - web sites) official during the 1991 Gulf War (news - web sites), and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have argued for U.S. military backing for the opposition.

Wolfowitz is widely expected to be confirmed by the Senate in the number two Pentagon post.

Condoleezza Rice (news - web sites), Bush's national security adviser, writing a year ago in Foreign Affairs magazine, said, ``Nothing will change until Saddam is gone, so the United States must mobilize whatever resources it can, including support from the opposition, to remove him.''

The former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, Gen. Anthony Zinni, has been outspoken about the failings of the INC and the dangers of giving it military support.

``Some of these groups (have) debilitating quarrels. They fight with each other. They kill each other. They have yet to show cohesion,'' he told the Senate Armed Forces Committee last September.

Bay Of Goats

``Before we sign up the American military ... be careful. Bay of Pigs could turn into Bay of Goats,'' he said in a reference to U.S. support for the abortive invasion of Cuba by Cuban opponents of Fidel Castro (news - web sites) in 1961.

Former President Clinton (news - web sites) made some funds available to the opposition, grouped in the Iraqi National Council, and sought to help it organize itself.

But the INC has been a fractious movement in the past, and, apart from the two main Kurdish groups operating in the north of Iraq, has had little success inside the country.

It has been encouraged by what it sees as a new enthusiasm for its operations by the Bush administration, which took over in January, and said this month it would send dozens of groups of infiltrators into Iraq starting this month.

Their aim would be to collect information and recruit supporters for its campaign to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. ``Now that the administration is much more forthcoming on these issues, we can take it to another level,'' said INC official spokesman Sharif Ali Bin AlHussein.

'Anarchy on the rise in Palestinian Authority'

Feb 27 2001 - Jerusalem Post

Borderline anarchy is plaguing the Palestinian Authority and putting it in danger of collapsing, according to IDF Coordinator of Activities in the Territories Gen. Yaakov Orr.

Orr made his remarks at a session of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

The PA is not supplying adequate municipal services to its population, Orr said.

As a result, the Tanzim is emerging as the potentially dominant leadership group, he added.

Orr said the PA is not attempting to stabilize the collapsing economic system in the territories.

According to Orr, the PA feels this will help it raise money from the international Arab community, Army Radio reported.

Sharon: A plan to strike Iraq
Iraq-Israel, Politics, 2/26/2001

Arabic News

The British "Sunday Times" daily reported in its Sunday's issue, reporting Israeli military sources that the Israeli prime minister elect Ariel Sharon gave his instructions to the Israeli army chief of staff Shaoul Mofaz to prepare for directing an early strike to the missile- launching area in the west of Iraq.

The Israeli radio quoted these sources as saying to the British paper that Sharon is planning to deploy neutron ( tactical) bombs to target this Iraqi area and destroy it, as intelligence information reported that Iraq is about to attack Israel by mass-annihilation weapons.

Iraq Pushing Expanded Arms Deal With Russia

Monday, February 26, 2001

US Defense.com

[NEWSLINE USA] -- Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has ordered the expansion of Iraq’s embassies in Russia and Belarus and has created a new intelligence unit in hopes of acquiring a large new weapons deal with Moscow, the London Telegraph reported Sunday.

Brig. Gen. Saadi Mohammed Subhi will head a new 20-member military intelligence bureau attached to the embassy in Moscow, the paper said, soliciting concern from western officials because of Subhi’s background in air defense.

"This is a significant departure from the norm. Usually, they appoint lower-ranking military intelligence officials. The fact that he comes from air defense is proof that negotiations with Moscow are at an advanced stage," one intelligence official told the paper.

U.S. and British warplanes bombed Iraqi radar command-and-control sites south of Baghdad Feb. 16 in an effort to destroy a new air defense complex that western officials say was being built with fiber optics technology obtained from China.

However, the shift to Russia signals that Baghdad is still serious about acquiring modern, sophisticated air defense missile systems, most likely because Saddam has had so much trouble defending his military assets since he began rebuilding them shortly after the 1991 Gulf War.

Western air power has managed to reduce much of Iraq’s air defense capabilities over the years with better technology, but analysts say Russian systems are far more capable than the systems Baghdad has employed throughout the 1990s.

And, British pilots reported last week that recent raids have seen an increase in air defense capability from Iraq.

Last year, the Telegraph said, Russia and Iraq signed a $100 million deal for Moscow to upgrade Baghdad’s air defense capabilities, in violation of United Nations sanctions that prohibit countries from making such weapons deals in Iraq.

The man appointed to head an expanded Iraqi intelligence mission in Belarus is Col Aedil Kamil Hadidi, a military engineer, the paper said. President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus is a close ally of Moscow.

The paper said Iraqi opposition groups say Russian air defense systems were being smuggled to Iraq through Iran. Formerly Jordan had been used as a conduit, but increased western surveillance there forced Russian and Iraqi officials to reroute the gear through Iran.

Also, the groups said Moscow is increasing the training of Iraqi soldiers and technicians in the use of the new systems, which were not named in the Telegraph report but could be the capable S-300 systems.

Besides Russian assistance, China, Belarus and Yugoslavia have also helped upgrade Iraq’s systems. Separate reports over the weekend, however, said much of the information on Iraq’s new fiber optic system was provided to western intelligence officials by the new administration in Belgrade, signaling that the country is likely trying to rebuild its image with the west in the hopes of a lessening of NATO involvement in Kosovo.

China aids Pakistani, 'rogue' missile programs, CIA says
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

February 27, 2001

     China continued to send "substantial" assistance to Pakistan's missile program during the first half of 2000 and also aided missile programs in Iran, North Korea and Libya, according to a CIA report.
     "Chinese missile-related technical assistance to Pakistan continued to be substantial during this reporting period," the CIA said in its semiannual report to Congress on arms proliferation.
     The report said that Chinese missile assistance is helping Pakistan move rapidly toward full-scale production of short-range ballistic missiles that are solid-fueled —meaning they can be launched on short notice.
     "In addition, firms in China provided missile-related items, raw materials, and/or assistance to several other countries of proliferation concern — such as Iran, North Korea and Libya," the report said.
     The Clinton administration last year waived U.S. economic sanctions against China for its missile sales after gaining a promise that Beijing would not sell missiles or components to anyone seeking nuclear-delivery vehicles.
     "The Clinton administration refused to sanction China even in the teeth of overwhelming evidence of violations," said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. "The question now is whether the Bush administration will do anything about it."
     The report comes after a public dispute between the United States and China over Beijing's development of a fiber-optic communications network connecting Iraq's air-defense network.
     The report also said that U.S. intelligence agencies "cannot rule out" intelligence reports that China is continuing to assist Pakistan's nuclear-weapons programs — despite a pledge by Beijing in May 1996 to halt support to nuclear facilities in Pakistan operating outside international controls.
     The report covering the first six months of 2000 is required by law. In addition to Chinese arms proliferation, the report also states that:
     • Russia sold ballistic-missile goods and technology to China, Iran, India and Libya, and its efforts to curb dangerous arms sales to rogue states "remain uncertain."
     "Russian entities during the first six months of 2000 have provided substantial missile-related technology, training and expertise to Iran that almost certainly will continue to accelerate Iranian efforts to develop new ballistic missile systems," the report said.
     • Moscow also is a major supplier of conventional arms to China, India, Iran, Syria, Libya and North Korea.
     • Iraq is developing an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) by converting Czech L-29 trainers into pilotless jets. The UAV could be used to deliver chemical or biological weapons. Iraq also has rebuilt key elements of its missile production facilities and is rebuilding chemical weapons plants.
     • Syria is seeking to purchase nuclear material from Russia that could help Damascus develop nuclear weapons. A joint Russian-Syrian nuclear cooperation program was drawn up in January 2000.
     • Libya is expanding its missile program since sanctions were lifted last year and is seeking a medium-range-missile capability. Tripoli also is seeking to acquire material and equipment for biological weapons. Russia and Libya resumed joint nuclear cooperation last year.
     Regarding North Korea, another major arms proliferator identified in the report, the CIA said Pyongyang is continuing to buy material for its missile program and also sought to buy technology with nuclear weapons applications.
     "During the first half of 2000, Pyongyang sought to procure technology worldwide that could have applications in its nuclear program," the report said. "But we do not know of any procurement directly linked to the nuclear weapons program."
     Under the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea was supposed to have halted its nuclear weapons program in exchange for nuclear power reactors considered less useful in nuclear arms applications.
     Henry Sokolski, director of the private Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center, said the report shows the need for the new Bush administration to do more to combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction and missiles.
     "This report only highlights even further why we not only will need to strengthen defenses, including missile defense, but to renew our nonproliferation efforts," Mr. Sokolski said.

TROUBLE IN THE HOLY LAND
U.S. forces continue deployments?
Fears of Mideast conflict reportedly driving 'training exercises'

© 2001 WorldNetDaily.com

Thursday, January 25, 2001

Large-scale movements of several Europe-based U.S. military units are continuing as first reported by WorldNetDaily last week, when sources said the entire U.S. V Corps was being moved "en masse to Grafenwoehr," Germany -- a sprawling training center near Nuremberg -- and that the threat condition for U.S. forces had been increased.

According to sources who spoke to WND on condition of anonymity, "there are two complete deployments" currently underway in EUCOM -- the United States' European Command -- that have been described as "a Corps-wide exercise … if you will."

The deployments carry the names "Victory Focus" and "Juniper Cobra," sources said, and reportedly involve the 1st Armored and 1st Infantry divisions, along with two aviation brigades, eight separate corps brigades and supporting artillery units.

Sources said the only unit missing from the operations -- "both of which are being called 'training,'" one source said -- "is the 69th Air Defense Brigade," a Patriot missile unit reportedly aboard ship earlier this week bound for Israel, which is scheduled to arrive Feb. 4 or 5 -- right before Israel's hotly contested Feb. 6 election for prime minister.

U.S.-manned Patriot missile batteries are currently deployed in Kuwait and Israel.

But one source said about 435 Patriot missile battery personnel would also be departing Germany today, ostensibly to link up with the new batteries once they arrive in the Middle East.

Sources said the Patriot batteries "will set up [and] they will practice fire (live)," but that "no end of mission date is set," and "no redeployment date is set."

The source said V Corps was currently "being heavily augmented by reserve units … and individuals."

"Looks like establishing a secure air corridor is first," one source added, hinting that the Patriot deployment would provide air cover for follow-on forces before they were deployed.

Last week, the Pentagon confirmed that EUCOM forces had been placed on higher alert status, but did not directly address the reports.

Yesterday, Pentagon officials again denied knowledge of any large-scale exercises or operations currently underway in Europe, though typically the Pentagon does not disclose the details of such operations in advance of objectives being met.

"I couldn't add anything to what we discussed last week," Army spokesman Lt. Col. Paul Phillips told WND.

Regarding the deployment of reserve forces, National Guard/Reserves spokesman Air Force Lt. Col. Mike Milord said he didn't know of any large-scale reserve unit call-ups or deployments in support of operations in EUCOM.

"Typically, reserve units are deployed in support of operations in Bosnia and Kosovo," he said, but indicated that he had "no information" about pending reserve U.S. military operations in the Middle East.

Spokesmen for EUCOM, based in Germany, could not be reached yesterday.

However, another source said, "Currently there are two exercises … both called training," and that they "could easily be morphed into one," referring to that possibility as the "Hail Mary plan," which would "not be training."

Sources said last week that the divisions reportedly being deployed to Grafenwoehr are "taking with them more than just enough stuff for a weekender. They're taking contamination outfits, protection gear, all of it -- lock, stock and barrel."

Meanwhile, there are other indications that the continuing unrest between Israel and the Palestinians could eventually have a role in a wider regional conflict.

Yesterday, published reports said that Israel, through intermediaries in the U.S. and some European countries, sent word to the Syrian government that the Jewish state would hold Damascus responsible if attacks being planned by Hezbollah guerrilla forces against Israel's northern border were carried out.

The warning came in response to Israeli intelligence warnings that said Iran had stepped up shipments of weapons to Hezbollah guerrillas operating in Lebanon and had increased training for guerrillas in preparation for attacks against the Jewish state.

Prior to issuing its warning through diplomatic channels, Israel had already begun beefing up security on its northern border.

Matthew Baker, a Mideast analyst at Stratfor, a Texas-based military and economic intelligence forecasting firm, said that although "there's a lot going on in the Middle East" at the moment, more than likely any such large-scale U.S. military exercises would be designed for little more than a "diplomatic" show of support for Israel.

"There's a lot going on in the region. But chugging inexorably toward war -- or at least toward a large Arab-Israeli war," didn't seem likely, he said.

"Egypt would be the keystone" in any such conflict, Baker said. "We saw [Arab neighbors of Israel] style back from the brink" of renewed regional conflict in the Middle East "a while ago, when Egypt backed off its hostile rhetoric" towards the Jewish state.

In any new military push against Israel, Arab countries "would need Egyptian participation," Baker said.

Other reports yesterday said that recent deployments of three to four divisions of Iraqi troops near the border with Syria were carried out by Saddam Hussein only after consultations with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

According to the Daily Ha'aretz: "A concentration of Iraqi troops was recently deployed on the Syrian border under an agreement between Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and Syrian President Bashar Assad. Saddam moved the troops into position after consulting Assad and securing his permission."

Assad used the Iraqi troop deployments as an opportunity to "warn Israel" that "if it enacts its threat to attack Syria as a response to a strike by Hezbollah, then Israel would have to face a much larger-scale threat of Syrian forces backed-up by Iraqis," the paper said.

Iraqi troops have been amassed at the Syrian border twice in recent weeks, reports said, with Saddam proclaiming that the deployments were "exercises."