Is it just me...

August 25, 2005
...or is it normal to take this long to settle into a new house? Last December, I left my long-time home in Michigan to be closer to family. I'm more active on newsgroups and discussion forums then I was last year, and I have even picked up a couple new duties as well. Most of all, I have had so much on my mind that my desk is where productivity goes to die. I knew moving was a long process, and the recovery even longer, but this is ridiculous.

Here's another example for how long it's been since my last column: last time I discussed the fall schedule. Today, I'm going to discuss the fall schedule. You should take my comments about the new shows with a grain of lost, if you recall that I did not see Lost, Desperate Housewives, or House go very far at all. First, this year's trends:
Welcome back to the Buffyverse: Alyson Hannigan, Nicholas Brendon, and David Boreanaz, all alumni of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, were all cast in new shows--with Willow and Xander opposing each other--and James Marsters is joining Smallville. But while Sarah Michelle Gellar's husband also has a new sitcom, she's already ruled out a guest appearance.
The new Saturday: The six networks' Friday ratings were so low that Friday has become the new Saturday. There had been three shows on that night I watched whenever I could. None of them made the fall schedule. Less than Perfect escaped the axe and won a midseason bid, but I did have to agree with the masses that 8 Simple Rules and Joan of Arcadia took huge creative downturns in 2005, and the damage proved to be irrepairable. Nice to see Charmed catch Kaley Cuoco on the rebound, though. The only new Friday show I've shown any interest in is Joan's replcement, Ghost Whisperer, and that's only because of Jennifer Love Hewitt. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Love fan, but given the reviews I've read about Ghost Whisperer, by year's end my Friday night viewing will be limited to GSN's Poker Royale and ESPN's Around the Horn, which I usually tape and watch at night.
Slightly used, part deux: Last year, a few low-yield Friday and Saturday spots were filled by repeats. Now the rerun bug has spread to other nights, with Reba getting the Beginnings treatment on The WB, and the Fox 7pm Sunday slot rotating between various animated series even after football season ends. But what was UPN thinking putting next-week repeats of America's Next Top Model on Tuesdays?! Tyra, meet Regis. Regis, Tyra.
The end of an era: ABC is sending prime time's second-longest-running program, Monday Night Football, to ESPN after this year, citing that the NFL has priced them out. Will & Grace and That '70s Show are also both ending in 2006, and I predict that Smallville and Alias will both be done after opposing Survivor. New nights could also spell doom for The West Wing, Bernie Mac, and Malcolm in the Middle. However, I'd like to know who fed me that rumor about 7th Heaven last year. The Camdens aren't leaving anytime soon.
Sticking to the script: The 2004-05 fall schedule was cluttered with reality series, a couple of which never made it to air. The original Extreme Makeover is gone, and while Home Edition, Survivor, The Amazing Race, Wife Swap et al, all found their way to the fall schedule, only two new reality series got the greenlight for fall, and both are on NBC: The Apprentice: Martha Stewart and Three Wishes. Scripted series are on the rise, most notably the science-fiction genre, as the networks think the next Lost will be easier to find than the next Desperate Housewives. The biggest surprise of all was Fear Factor being pushed to midseason, and as it stands right now, it's slated to resurface Tuesdays at 8:00--after American Idol returns. But if one of those sci-fi dramas, Surface, fails, Joe Rogan will have his 8:00 Monday slot back soon. Also note that Fox and ABC did not announce formal cancellations for The Swan and Extreme Makover: Home Edition-How'd They Do That?, respectively. I'm guessing both networks are keeping these shows in their back pockets in case of an emergency.
The matchup of the year: Wednesday at 9:00, all six networks are trotting out dramas. Four are new, and two are in new time slots. But the real battle royale starts in January: Lost vs. American Idol. If May 25 was any indication, Ryan Seacrest may finally meet his match. Stay tuned...
And finally, the sitcom drought in a nutshell: NBC and The WB ordered only one new sitcom each for fall. Critics seem to like My Name is Earl, but the reviews I've read about Twins tell me why the former Team Frog (I'm trying to come up with a new cognomen) renewed What I Like About You despite all those 1.5s last season. I don't even want to know what else was in the development pipeline.

Time to break it all down, hour-by-hour. (Notes: All times are Eastern and Pacific, and the Fox schedules listed is its September to January schedule.)

My take on Saturday: I'm not going to bother with a grid for this night, but I can tell you this: The Wonderful World of Disney is gone, with The ABC Movie of the Week title from long ago brought to the present. After a failed Apprentice experiment, NBC is going back to movies for now, but we know it'll be back to Law & Order reruns from November on. But CBS's expanding Crime Time Saturday from one hour to two is the best move a network can make on a night where the glory days are gone forever.  Advantage: CBS

SUNDAY
7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Funniest Home Videos Home Makeover Desp. Housewives Gray's Anatomy**
CBS 60 Minutes Cold Case CBS Sunday Movie
NBC Dateline NBC The West Wing* L&O: Criminal Intent Crossing Jordan
Fox TBA King o' Hill* Simpsons War@Home Fam. Guy** Am. Dad**
WB Reba Charmed Blue Collar TV*
Bold = new show  Italics = repeats  * = returning show in new time slot  ** = returning midseason entry  + = new title
My take, hour by hour:
7:00-8:00 Now that I've given it some thought, I can see why Fox and The WB went with reruns at this hour. Only Joe Buck can compete with Mike Wallace, and Buck's only on duty until January.  Advantage: CBS
8:00-9:00 Last year I chided ABC's risk of overexposing Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, but Ty Pennington and company showed no ill effects, and Team Alphabet did take it easy on the repeats this summer. But will The West Wing, which took some big bruises from American Idol on Wednesday, survive in a time slot where American Dreams whithered away last year (guilty as charged; I made a case for it last year only to give up myself). Regardless whether whether Jimmy Smits or Alan Alda wins the election, I see the series following President Bartlett into retirement, with third place the best NBC can ask for and the NFL coming in 2006. I see the rationale of Fox putting a new show after The Simpsons to give it sampling, but a September 11 debut, of all dates, for a sitcom titled The War at Home? If it was tasteful, it wouldn't be Fox.  Advantage: ABC
9:00-10:00 OK, so the critics were right. But will Desperate Housewives fall into a sophomore slump? I don't see it. CBS continues to live and die by the Sunday movie, but NBC will have to find a new time slot for Law & Order: Criminal Intent next season. Jeff Foxworthy may also have to find a new home, since Steve Harvey lasted just one year on Sunday. But Fox did the right thing by bringing back Family Guy, and I really think this second incarnation will outlive the first if expectations stay realistic.  Advantage: ABC
10:00-11:00 NBC has the same quandry with Crossing Jordan. Maybe they could move it back to Monday and create a one-two-three punch with Las Vegas and Medium if Fear Factor and Surface both go under. But Gray's Anatomy will take the hour on lead-in strength alone.  Advantage: ABC
Nightly Advantage: ABC

MONDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Wife Swap* Monday Night Football
CBS King of Queens How I Met... 2½ Men Out of Practice CSI: Miami
NBC Surface Las Vegas Medium*
Fox Arrested Dev. Kitchen Confid'l Prison Break
UPN One on One All of Us* Girlfriends Half and Half*
WB 7th Heaven Just Legal
Bold = new show  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 I watched Lake Bell on Miss Match two years ago, but it's going to take more than that to get me to watch Surface. The question regarding Wife Swap isn't just whether it'll work in a historically-impossible time slot; it's how whether it has recovered from that PR black eye at the end of last season. That was one of the more surprising renewals. Question marks also surround the network I fittingly call Team Enigma: Arrested Development didn't work after The Simpsons, so will it work in the lead-off slot on another night? This puts even more pressure on Kitchen Confidential, but the better-than-expected results for H---'s Kitchen could--could, mind you--be a good sign. But with House moving here in January after breaking out of Idol's shadow this summer, there's no lag time. The hour's big story is that Doug, Carrie, and Arthur are back home after two respectable seasons on Wednesdays. But a strong lead-in doesn't mean How I Met Your Mother will work out at 8:30. Just ask Jason Alexander.  Advantage: CBS
9:00-10:00 Two and a Half Men had the breakout year I predicted, and as expected, Charlie Sheen and Jon Cryer inherited the top of the hour from the retired Everybody Loves Raymond. Las Vegas boasts a new, larger set and shorter cocktail dresses. Anything to bring back the young males. But don't call ABC's final season of Monday Night Football a farewell tour. Al Michaels and Michele Tafoya will be following MNF to ESPN, while John Madden will ride his Maddencruiser to NBC. With competition like this, Fox's Prison Break needs all the momentum it can get from its early start and positive reviews before a baseball-induced hiatus in October. Random thought: Fox's monopoly on playoff baseball has actually done more more harm than good to its early-week scripted dramas, so Team Enigma has a tough decision ahead when its MLB contract is up for renewal in 2007. Given what I've heard about Just Legal, The WB would be smart to move Everwood back here before it's too late.  Advantage: CBS
10:00-11:00 If it was possible, LAX was even worse than advertised, but midseason entry Medium picked up the slack. The fall may be a three-way split, but overall it's still David Caruso's hour to lose.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: CBS

TUESDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Accrdg. to Jim* Rodney* Commander-in-Chief Boston Legal*
CBS NCIS The Amazing Race Close to Home
NBC The Biggest Loser** My Name is... The Office** L&O: Special Victims Unit
Fox Bones House
UPN America's Next Top Model Sex, Love & Secrets
WB Gilmore Girls Supernatural
Bold = new show  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry  + = new title
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 So much for momentum. Last year, a handful of shows in this hour were driven into cancellation by American Idol, and NBC was dead in the water even before Simon Cowell moved back in, so the only opposing shows that figure to mount any kind of challenge are the ones that actually held up well last season, NCIS and Gilmore Girls. Even though ABC knows what happened to My Wife and Kids last year, According to Jim and Rodney moved to the head of the lineup to make room for Commander-in-Chief. I doubted House last year and I'm still eating crow. Will lightning strike twice with Bones, which is being groomed to lead out of Idol? Will The Biggest Loser work out better than Last Comic Standing did last year? Only time will tell, but even I can tell UPN raised the white flag on this hour.  Advantage: CBS until January; Fox from January on
9:00-10:00 I called last year's field the weakest hour outside of Friday or Saturday, but House did make it to January and caught fire out of Idol. And as expected, Clubhouse's early ejection led to The Amazing Race's most successful year yet, regardless of whether it threepeats at the Emmys next month. With past seasons now being rerun on GSN, CBS is looking for even more new viewers to flock to this fall's family edition. UPN took a cue from The WB's One Tree Hill--which did see substantial growth in year two--and renewed Veronica Mars on the strength of the critics' raves, but now both dramas are on Wednesday to make room for rookies. Head-to-head, I'd give Supernatural the advantage by a mile. Speaking of new dramas, ABC's Commander-in-Chief is ambitious, but the last drama focusing on a female president was Hail to the Chief back in the 1980s--a show that even star Patty Duke probably forgets. The addition of the also-critically-hailed My Name is Earl left NBC to choose between Scrubs and The Office. Fortunately, they renewed both, knowing that Scrubs has done well off the bench before.  Advantage: Fox
10:00-11:00 I didn't think it would happen this soon, but Special Victims Unit was the most-watched Law & Order series last season, outdrawing the original. This year Detectives Stabler and Benson have two new challengers: Boston Legal, the spinoff from The Practice whose time slot was hijacked by Gray's Anatomy and whose new lead-in isn't exactly Desperate Housewives, and Close to Home, for which CBS sacrificed the old-skewing Judging Amy. This marks Jennifer Finnigan's third series in two years, but if I was her, I would have gone back to Crossing Jordan.  Advantage: NBC
Nightly Advantage: My bold bet of the day: a wire-to-wire victory for Fox

WEDNESDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC George Lopez* Freddie Lost* Invasion
CBS Still Standing* Yes, Dear* Criminal Minds CSI:NY
NBC Apprentice: Martha Stewart E-Ring Law & Order
Fox That '70s Show Stacked** Head Cases
UPN America's Next Top Model Veronica Mars*
WB One Tree Hill* Related
Bold = new show  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry  + = new title
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 Last year's prediction is one I want back. Top Model's defeat of Smallville was just about the only thing I got right, and my front-runner for this hour got cancelled. 60 Minutes Wednesday was doubled in households by Lost--a show I gave no chance--and beaten in adults 18-49 (where all the money is) by UPN, which is inexcusable for any Big Three show. Last September's Memogate scandal that led to Dan Rather's departure from the CBS Evening News certainly didn't help. In its place, Yes, Dear is back for a full season, joined by former Monday lead-in Still Standing. And with Lost now at 9:00, this hour is wide open. There is quite a matchup at the bottom of the hour, with Freddie Prinze, Jr. vs. Pamela Anderson vs. Martha Stewart. Even though I watched three of Prinze's films at the theater (including both Scooby-Doo movies), I am an Apprentice fan, so Martha's getting my vote. Meanwhile, ABC must really be hoping George Lopez's fans are forgiving. I think he's on his fourth time slot in as many seasons.  Advantage: NBC
9:00-10:00 Wednesday is the most overhauled night on the schedule, with seven new series, three shows imported from other nights, and two other Wednesday shows moving to new time slots. This hour is a microcosm of the night with dramas on all six networks, none of which was there last year. The biggest question mark among the four new dramas is NBC's Pentagon drama E-Ring. Last year was an off year for Mark Burnett and Dick Wolf, so Jerry Bruckheimer is due for a miss this year. Can Veronica Mars withstand this tough competition and get the attention it lacked on Tuesday last year? Its trial run on CBS this summer was nothing to crow about at first glance, but they'll take any improvement over UPN's numbers. However, Kevin Hill lasted only one year with the same lead-in. (Despite positive buzz from all of last year's new UPN shows, only Mars--the lowest-rated of the three--survived.) As for Head Cases, the fact that it's not on Fox's January schedule when Idol comes calling is not exactly a vote of confidence. So it's Matthew Fox and his castaways' hour to lose...until January.  Advantage: ABC--for now
10:00-11:00 Only four Wednesday shows remain in their time slots from last year, and two of them are in this hour. It was a tough season for Law & Order, losing its dominance in this time slot against CSI:NY, seeing a spin-off--Trial by Jury--get cancelled, and the death of Jerry Orbach. ABC likes its chances more than ever with rookie sci-fi drama Invasion benefitting from a Lost lead-in. So that's the rationale for Lost's new time. I never thought I'd say this, but this could go any which way. When in doubt, pick Team Eye.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: CBS--but only until January

THURSDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Alias* The Night Stalker PrimeTime Live
CBS Survivor: Guatemala+ CSI Without a Trace
NBC Joey Will & Grace The Apprentice ER
Fox The OC Reunion
UPN ...Hates Chris Eve* Cuts** Love, Inc.
WB Smallville* Everwood*
Bold = new show  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry  + = new title
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 Between CBS and NBC, the only change was the setting of Survivor. CBS was smart not to mess with the #1 lineup on TV, but NBC did raise eyebrows by staying status quo after a down year. The other four networks are trying to kick Team Peacock when it's down, but I don't see either Smallville or Alias making it out of the season alive. Both are now on their fifth year, meaning they both will have enough episodes for syndication, which means they can keep making money even without making new episodes. Another sign of the sitcom drought--the critics' favorite new sitcom is on UPN Thursday. Can Chris Rock really bring an audience to Team Mountain on TV's toughest night after years of wrestling? Meanwhile, with the curtain coming down on Will & Grace, NBC has little choice but to keep Joey around for a while in spite of its shortcomings. But it's Jeff Probst's island, and everybody else is just getting voted off of it.  Advantage: CBS
9:00-10:00 Here's an indication that CSI is showing no signs of slowing down: one episode last season featured only two members of the show's main cast, Gary Dourdan and George Eads, and both in uncharacteristically small roles. Despite the departure from the norm, it was still the most-watched program that week. I saw the rerun a couple of weeks ago--the first time I ever watched a CSI episode straight through--and I can't help but wonder whether it'll eventually serve as a possible CSI:LA pilot. Meanwhile, The Apprentice made the mistake of putting TV value ahead of business savvy in casting both of last year's cycles. The results were anticlimatic, as the project manager almost always took the fall. Donald Trump says he helped pick this fall's candidates, so I'm hoping that helps. Once again, everybody else will be left fighting for scraps. ABC is attempting to revive the '70s series Kolchak: The Night Stalker, but if the original lasted only one season, there's no chance of this turkey of making it past Thanksgiving. I really can't predict what Cuts will do, but bailing on Love, Inc. after the pilot was one of Shannen Doherty's better career moves. As for The WB, like Smallville, moving Everwood to this night could be fatal.  Advantage: CBS
10:00-11:00 The close race I expected between Without a Trace and ER never happened, as CBS won decisively. In a way, this hour mirrors the entire night: CBS dominating, NBC fading, and ABC not even trying.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: CBS

FRIDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Supernanny** Hope & Faith Hot Properties 20/20
CBS Ghost Whisperer Threshold NUMB3RS**
NBC Dateline NBC Three Wishes Inconceivable
Fox Bernie Mac* Malcolm...* Killer Instinct
UPN Friday Night SmackDown!!*+
WB What I Like... Twins Reba Living w/Fran**
Bold = new show  Italics = repeats  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 Another overhauled night, with only five shows unchanged from last year. Two of them, Dateline Friday and What I Like About You are found in this hour. Stone Phillips and new co-anchor Ann Curry will win this hour, even though I'll try to give Ghost Whisperer a chance. Meanwhile, UPN's WWE SmackDown is entering its contract year with a new night and a new title, and I think Team Mountain took a huge gamble. Either SmackDown will turn the whole night around or NBC's upcoming Sunday Night Football will be the only regular prime-time sports series next year. We all know wrestling is rigged, but even I have to admit that with all these female-skewing shows against it, Vince McMahon and company have the vital young male demographic to itself.  Advantage: NBC
9:00-10:00 The networks' desperate attempt to bring viewers back to Friday nights saw only Hope & Faith and Reba keeping their time slots, with four new series in this hour. If I was forced to watch one of them, I'd take Three Wishes, NBC's reality show hosting by singer Amy Grant. CBS is hoping Threshold will skew younger than JAG, but if the total audience isn't big enough, its age won't matter. As for Killer Instinct, Fox is obviously still afflicted by what I call the curse of Chuck Woolery. Fox cancelled Greed in 2000 when it was still drawing 6.0+ ratings. No regular Friday night Fox series since then averaged as high as 4.0, and a revival of Greed is out of the question with Chuck now at GSN.  Advantage: NBC
10:00-11:00 CBS's bench salvaged an otherwise-dead hour as midseason entry NUMB3RS showed some life. Of course, airing its premiere right after the #3 program of the season, the AFC Championship Game, made all the difference. I really thought NBC would give Law & Order: Trial by Jury a full season, and after they see the ratings for Inconceivable, they'll wish they had, too.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: NBC

In a column full of picks I want back, my biggest blunder was picking NBC to win the season overall. CBS won in households and total viewers, American Idol led Fox to its first-ever demo championship, and NBC fell to fourth place down the board. There is one wild card in Team Peacock's favor this year--the Winter Olympics. In 2002, the last time an Olympiad was held within the regular season, NBC won the season easily. Of course, back then they still had Friends and Frasier, and ER, Will & Grace, and The West Wing were still in their prime. Considering how far down NBC came in 2004-05, will the Olympics alone be enough to pull them back up to the top? I am going to take a bold guess and say yes.

And next May we'll all know how wrong I am.

I won't have to wait until May for the NFL final standings. But here's how I think they'll look right now:
AFC East: New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami
AFC North: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland
AFC South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee
AFC West: Oakland, San Diego, Denver, Kansas City
 NFC East: Philadelphia, Dallas, NY Giants, Washington
NFC North: Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago
NFC South: Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay, New Orleans
NFC West: St. Louis, Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco

The AFC West was the toughest to call. I had Kansas City winning it last year, and they finished dead last. I did call Detroit's win in Chicago, though.

Finally, it's been a long time coming, but the NHL is back! OK, now that you're done yawning, I'm going to try to call the divisions. However, with all the new rules and player movement, it's almost easier just drawing numbers from a hat.
Atlantic: Philadelphia, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, NY Islanders, NY Rangers
Northeast: Ottawa, Montreal, Boston, Buffalo, Toronto
Southeast: Tampa Bay, Florida, Atlanta, Carolina, Washington
 Central: Detroit, St. Louis, Chicago, Nashville, Columbus
Midwest: Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, Colorado, Minnesota
Pacific: Anaheim, Dallas, Phoenix, San Jose, Los Angeles

I'm on the eastern edge of Blackhawks country, but I'm still rooting for the Red Wings. Wow, I just realized the NHL lockout hadn't even started yet when I wrote my last column! That's all you need to know about how long it's been. I for one hope a drought like this never happens again.

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