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2007-08 FALL SCHEDULE ANALYSIS

One trend from the last two years is how certain shows, new shows and veterans alike, have a lot of pressure placed on them, given their time slots, lead-ins, and competition. I've picked out the one new show and one returning show from each network and I believe has the most pressure placed on them this fall, and I'll explain why below:
ABC (Team Alphabet): Pushing Daisies; Men in Trees
CBS (Team Eye): Cane; Jericho
NBC (Team Peacock): The Bionic Woman; Law & Order
Fox (Team Enigma, because that's what the network is): Back to You; Bones
The CW (I called them Team Merger last year, but this year, I'm giving them the more fitting cognomen of Team Green): Reaper; The Game
Since Jericho isn't a fall returnee, I'll explain this selection here: After a hot start, the post-apocolyptic drama took a nose dive in the ratings after a three-month hiatus (coming back to find Idol in your time slot isn't a good thing either). After the show's cancellation, the few fans who remained deluged CBS with nuts (a reference to Skeet Ulrich's final line in the finale), prompting Team Eye to order 7 episodes for midseason. However, the network cautioned viewers that there have to be more of them to keep the show alive. Word of mouth can still make a difference, considering Desperate Housewives and Lost relied mainly on that three years ago when poor summer ratings left ABC's promos falling on deaf ears.

The story of Jericho's resurrection leads me to the first and most visible of this year's trends:
Surprise renewals: I haven't submitted my Allison LaPlaca Open entry yet, so it's obvious I'm still thinking it over. With good reason, too, since the renewals of no less than six series that IMO did not deserve it, such as According to Jim, Notes from the Underbelly, and One Tree Hill (I'll give NBC's critical darlings 30 Rock and Friday Night Lights the benefit of a doubt), tell me that the networks have alarmingly lowered their expectations in 2007. Let me give this warning to other players: this year, cancellations may be very tough to predict.
One last hurrah: At least last year's players already knew 2006-07 would be the last for The King of Queens. At this year's upfronts, ABC Studios and NBC have confirmed that this seventh season of Scrubs will be its last, and there are rumblings that Jim will take his last bow in 2008 as well.
New life on cable: Two former network series in two years have found new homes on cable TV. Monday Night Football is entering its second season on ESPN, while NBC couldn't find enough room for all three Law & Orders and sent the youngest, Criminal Intent, to USA (owned by NBC Universal, not surpringly). With the mothership on hold until January, this leaves only one L&O on the starting lineup. In related news, the first new episodes of Futurama in five years will arrive on Adult Swim (Cartoon Network's late-night block) next year.
No looking back: Taking extended breaks works for Prison Break, but it doesn't work for Lost anymore, considering it suffered almost as much ratings damage as Jericho did. So for its final three seasons, Lost will follow the 24 model and run new episodes straight through with no reruns and limited, if any, preemptions. NBC's post-NFL Sunday lineup will have that same advantage, as will most other late starters.
Y2K, network style: Once again, everybody is loading up for midseason, but there is a reason scripted shows have accelerated their production schedules. Insiders predict a long, protacted writers' strike starting in November, which may result in wall-to-wall reality by 2009.
Out of nowhere: And if that happens, new unscripted shows seem to appear out of thin air, even at networks other than Fox. After cancelling its copycat reality hours Nanny 911 and Trading Spouses (note that the two ABC shows Fox ripped off are still in production), Fox responded to NBC's The Singing Bee with Don't Forget the Lyrics. As it stands right now, it's a draw as both summer series found their way onto their networks' fall schedules. Fox, however, came up with a rare original hit in Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader?. September won't be the last we will see of CBS's summer entry Power of 10, either. Considering ABC is bringing back National Bingo Night in December--which got about half of Po10's audience but earned renewal because of all the hits on the show's web site--I'm certain of it. The Amazing Race and The Apprentice will be back, the latter with a celebrity edition--red light!--and no doubt there will be a few unscripted shows that as of now haven't been created yet. Unfortunately, for every 5th Grader, there's at least six Grease: You're the One That I Want!s.
So old it's new again: The Bionic Woman isn't the only show NBC is bringing into the 21st Century in 2007-08. Team Peacock has just confirmed that a new version of American Gladiators is a go for midseason. As someone who got wrapped on AG during its off-network run on USA back in the early 1990s, I'm all for it, but if the best unscripted concept your network can come up with is Thank God You're Here, maybe it is time to relive the past.
Exploding casts: Whenever I watch a network drama, it takes 10-12 minutes to get all the way through the opening credits. That number may draw close to 15 soon, with the plethora of new faces a number of dramas, nost notably Heroes and House, are adding next season. Among a half-dozen others, Heroes pulled off a casting coup this week by signing the former Veronica Mars herself, Kristen Bell, to a multi-episode guest stint. One thing's for sure, it'll satisfy all the Kristen fans who are bummed that she will only be narrating The CW's Gossip Girl and not actually appear on the show. (And now that co-star Hayden Panettiere is 18, look for a lot of drooling on the celebrity picture sites when screen captures if either are posted.) And House is adding four new doctors next month--even though Omar Epps, Jennifer Morrison, and Jesse Spencer (whose characters left the hospital last May) are not leaving.
The matchup of the year: Three networks have placed their most hyped rookies Wednesday at 9:00, opposite Criminal Minds and, if they make it past New Year's, Idol.
And finally, it's one thing when your audience ages, but this is ridiculous: What do Ryan Seacrest, Jennifer Love Hewitt, David Boreanaz, Marc Summers, and Jeff Probst all have in common? They all appeared on shows I used to watch back in their days, but now all of them appear on current shows my mother watches religiously. If I was old enough to watch China Beach during its ABC run, you could have added Marg Helgenberger to that list.

That said, here is my annual hour-by-hour breakdown of the fall schedule. I have included new sections for upcoming midseason entries as well as what I will give a thought to not ignoring, which is the best a network can hope for. (Notes: All schedules listed are the September schedules and are subject to change. All times are Eastern and Pacific.)

SUNDAY

My take, hour by hour:
7:00-8:00 Just as CBS has a newsmagazine that the baby-boomers watch, The CW is introducing two newmagazines for the YouTube generation. But with no other changes in this hour, I don't expect any change in the pecking order. It's worth noting that by the end of the season, 60 Minutes and America's Funniest Home Videos will have a combined run of 57 years. Advantage: CBS
8:00-9:00 The master schedule on NFL.com doesn't show it, but the late-season flex scheduling is still in effect. Yes, it was an improvement in terms of the quality of play. But ratings? This hour will be tough to call. Viva Laughlin is ambitious, but one thing that worries me is its late-October start date, a side effect of early-season NFL doubleheaders. Home Makeover showed scaled back a little in the ratings last season, but that's nothing compared to Law & Order's complete collapse in just one season on Friday. There were even rumors of cancellation, which places a lot of pressure on the 18th-year procedural. It needs to run into the 2010-11 season to pass Gunsmoke as the longest-running scripted program in TV history, but I'm going to make a bold prediction: L&O won't make it, but The Simpsons, which premiered just a few months earlier, will. One more random note: Life is Wild gives Team Green more new series on Sunday alone than on its entire schedule last year. The over/under in their averages, however, remains, at one ratings point. Advantage: NBC during football season, ABC after that
9:00-10:00 Although Fox's "Animation Domination" name has been in effect for a couple of seasons now, this is the first time the fall lineup has had all four of their cartoons back-to-back. The block will shift to 7:00-9:00 in midseason when live-action adventure Sarah Connor moves in. (One good thing is, it will finally unite The Simpsons and Family Guy in a one-hour block.) Desperate Housewives will get the headlines with a gay couple coming to Wisteria Lane, but Cold Case will continue to get the viewers when repeats are factored in. Advantage: CBS
10:00-11:00 Considering Without a Trace showed no ill effects from its one season on Sunday, I'm not worried about Shark at all. But you ask were to ask Mediaweek's Marc Berman, he'd forecast a breakout year for Brothers & Sisters. It did pick up steam creativitely in late-season, but still, I'm giving this hour to James Woods over Sally Field. Advantage: CBS
What I'll be watching: During football season, it's all-day NFL, but I may take a Shark break at 10:00. Mom's starting to become a little uneasy with Cold Case, though, so she's looking forward to the return of Medium, which she she gave priority over the CSI spinoffs.
Nightly Advantage: A potential three-way split, but CBS is the most consistent.

MONDAY

My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 Team Peacock put together an all-sci-fi night, but what worries me is Monday was Deal or No Deal's best night. One thing I did like, though, is that Dancing with the Stars, which had aired its performance shows on three different nights in its first three cycles, found a firm place on Team Alphabet's schedule in 2006-07. The big question goes without asking, so the little question is, can Everybody Hates Chris finally shake off the damage caused by that one month on Sunday last year? Advantage: ABC
9:00-10:00 That is a shrewd move by Team Alphabet to expand the performance shows to a 90-minimum to help give Samantha Who? some sampling. But will it take the wind out of the sails of Two and a Half Men or Heroes? That may be asking a bit much since all three shows attract different audiences. One thing's for sure, NBC is working on cutting down on Heroes repeats by introducing a self-contained six-week spinoff with an interactive element. With Patrick Warburton back for a full season and Julia Louis-Dreyfus coming back in midseason, the Seinfeld is officially dead and buried. But speaking of buried, I'm afraid K-Ville will get lost in the shuffle (who wants a weekly reminder of Hurricane Katrina?), and Girlfriends may be another show that's planning its farewell tour. This likely means an unplanned one for The Game. Advantage: The Big Three will be nip-and-tuck all season, but repeat season will result in a victory for CBS
10:00-11:00 The early reviews for Journeyman have drawn comparisons to Quantum Leap. Mom liked QL, but I think she's going to stay in Miami. The Bachelor is another show that didn't warrant a renewal but got one anyway. Yes, it's the cockroach of reality TV. You just can't kill it. Advantage: CBS
What I'll be watching: Last season Mom got me sucked into several procedurals, and this summer followed the same pattern with the Miami and New York CSIs. Earlier in the evening, I may try to check out The Big Bang Theory (Kaley Cuoco's back again). I've been wanting to check out Rules of Engagement, but Cuoco's former 8 Simple Rules co-star David Spade raises a red light. Still, I'm more likely to go the cable route with Monday Night Football and GSN's High Stakes Poker.
Nightly Advantage: I'm calling an upset. ABC takes this night on the strength of Dancing.

TUESDAY

My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 Last year wasn't an easy choice for Mom, but it's a little simpler this year. She can always catch up with NCIS during repeat season. The Biggest Loser has fattened up to 90 minutes, and The CW, whose dream pairing of Gilmore Girls and Veronica Mars faded away after only one year, completely rebuilt the night with Beauty and the Geek following the same route to the starting lineup Dancing did last year. But as for ABC, is it just me or would the Geico gecko have made a better show than the cavemen? That's even worse news for its lead-out; on the bright side, neither will have to worry about facing Idol. Congratulations, Carpoolers, you just made the top of my LaPlaca list. Advantage: CBS until Idol starts, then it's all Fox
9:00-10:00 The Unit took a ratings beating last spring against House and ABC's results show, but Dennis Haysbert is still on duty. Fox's imitator forced NBC to rush The Singing Bee into production much sooner than they wanted it to, but will viewers stay with Joey Fatone and his honeybees into the fall? And can Reaper succeed in the time slot where Mars withered away last year? I don't think we're going to know until October, but I know this: with sitcoms According to Jim and Notes from the Underbelly (which ABC renewed despite CW-type ratings) expected to fill the hour when Tom Bergeron goes on winter break, that will place the hour in Hugh Laurie's corner. Advantage: Fox
10:00-11:00 This hour is CBS's weakest point, having run through no less than seven different occupants in the three years since Judging Amy was cancelled. NBC tried a mob drama last year, and The Black Donnellys failed miserably, so I see no sign of Cane reversing the trend. And with Amy Brenneman co-starring on ABC's Private Practice, resurrecting Judging is out of the question. As far as the L&O brand is concerned, maybe less really is more. Advantage: NBC
What I'll be watching: Bones is a definite yes, although--and I said this last year--Team Enigma is making a major mistake moving it to the no-man's land that is Friday. Fortunately, they talked themselves out of it last year. I got nothing from 9:00 on, but Mom will give Boston Legal priority because of SVU's next-week repeats on USA.
Nightly Advantage: They say it's not how you start but how you finish, which is a good thing for Fox.

WEDNESDAY

My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 Almost every network completely rebuilt at least one night from scratch, and this night was the most popular night to retool. Only two networks kept at least one show from last year, and another network, ABC, is starting three rookies. I take it nobody other than The CW was really happy with their ratings on this hour last year (IIRC, Bones was the only non-Idol show to break 6.0, and part of that was attributed to pre-Idol tune-in), so Team Green's top draw is this hour's only constant from last year. This year Tyra will face off against one drama, two sitcoms, one game show, and one reality show. CBS's Kid Nation, which can best be described as a kid-sized version of Survivor minus the tribal councils, is drawing fire as I type this amid allegations of child exploitation, which can't be good PR. Note that CBS hasn't yet stated a successor for this limited-run series; I think it's becoming more and more possible that Drew Carey might make a Wednesday night homecoming with Power of 10. Wednesday at 8:00 may have been the one hour Deal or No Deal hasn't been slotted yet, not counting 10:00 or weekends. Two of my most scrutinized rookies above fall into this hour, because out of ABC's unproven trio, Pushing Daisies is the one I think has the highest probability of being replaced by Lost if Team Alphabet wants to keep it on Wednesday. But there is a lot more than the survival of 'Til Death riding on Kelsey Grammer and Patricia Heaton's newsroom comedy Back to You--the fate of the entire sitcom genre may rest on this one show. Advantage: NBC, although I can't really see any overall improvement anywhere
9:00-10:00 The most retooled hour on the most retooled night, with ABC, NBC, and The CW all putting their highest-touted new series in this hour. The pedigree of Grey's Anatomy makes spinoff Private Practice the clear front-runner of the three, but will it unseat CBS's Criminal Minds and new star Joe Mantegna? And we know Minds can hold its own against Idol, but can Practice? Yes, it's obvious Kitchen Nightmares--basically a self-contained, non-competitive version of H---'s Kitchen, Gordon Ramsey and all--is just a placeholder. Well, better Gordon than Emily Deschanel, who was originally supposed to respented Team Enigma before they realized everybody else has dramas. The CW hopes Top Model can give a boost to Gossip Girl, but that is only going to increase the pressure on it. And although NBC's hopes are high for its update of The Bionic Woman with newcomer Michelle Ryan, the last remake of a 1970s series (ABC's Night Stalker) didn't last much longer than a commercial break. Advantage: For now, I call it a push between ABC and CBS--but if either Fox or Idol's producers decide to go crazy with the result shows again, all bets are off
10:00-11:00 Once again Gary Sinise and company are challenged by two rookies. I've seen a few early reviews calling Dirty Sexy Money a sleeper, but as for Life...well, how does Team Peacock like the decision to move L&O now? Advantage: CBS
What I'll be watching: I saw the pilot of 'Til Death last year, and I was disappointed. I'm told it did improve as the season went on, but I'm going with Howie and his case carrying cuties, while Mom might check out Kid Nation. The rest of the night will be Idol and CSI: NY for me, although Mom will once again find a way to work AI around Criminal Minds, especially now that Mandy Patinkin left.
Nightly Advantage: It looks like clear sailing for CBS in the fourth quarter, but even a half-hour of Idol may be enough to push Fox over the top.

THURSDAY

My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 It's China vs. America, just like always. :-D Surivor has become the first-ever American television series to film an entire season on the Chinese mainland. As if the United States isn't exporting enough jobs to China already. :-Þ Ugly Betty gave CBS a run early on before Idol's three-week guest appearance that was the semifinals took the wind out of America Ferrera's sails. I think they'll stay close, but wow, how the mighty have fallen. When Jeff Foxworthy and his child brainiacs (well, brainiacs in comparison to the contestants, anyway) exceeded all expectations, NBC has been left pining for the glory days of The Cosby Show lately. Advantage: CBS
9:00-10:00 The balance of power has started to shift. True, both Grey's Anatomy and CSI: Original Recipe can attract huge audiences in the same time slot because both shows skew toward separate demographics. Still, both networks are really after the same crowd: adults under 50. ABC was poised for an upset, but there was one problem down the stretch: self-contained shows (like CSI) repeat much better than serialized shows (like Grey's). The pattern should hold in 2007-08. Meanwhile, like Heroes, Team Peacock expanded The Office's order to 30 episodes in an attempt to curb repeats. However, since Scrubs won't be ready for its farewell tour until World Series week, four of their five planned hour-long blocks will be burned off early. So much for curbing repeats. Meanwhile, Team Enigma has displayed a rare show a logic: when Don't Forget the Lyrics! earned a spot on the fall lineup, Fox turned Thursday into an all-game show night. First Chip Esten landed a recurring role on The Office, then Wayne Brady returned with a primetime hit, now Drew Carey's got a warm-up for his new daytime gig. Whatever happened to Ryan Stiles? No, I don't think he'll turn up on Supernatural. Advantage: It all depends on whether Grey's is new. If it is, it's ABC; otherwise, it's CBS.
10:00-11:00 CBS's powerhouse Thursday trio is back together again. Welcome home, Jack Malone. Although some say ER has gone on far too long, NBC has little choice but to keep it for as long as possible because personally, I don't think anything else can do any better. As for Big Shots, as somebody who will probably never draw another paycheck again as long as our economy depends on illegal immigrants, I absolutely cannot relate to a show about CEOs. Nice try, ABC. Advantage: CBS, no contest
What I'll be watching: Yes, I'm a game show fan, and this page is located on a game show site, but sorry Fox, but it's CBS all the way.
Nightly Advantage: It will be a two-network race again, but again, CBS's dramas hold up infinitely better in reruns than ABC's, so Team Eye is the pick.

FRIDAY

My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 Another drastically overhauled night, with three of the five networks (specifically, the three networks not overseen by by-the-book Les Moonves) completely rearranging the deck chairs. Fox and the producers of American Idol are taking a break from their annual search for the next Kelly Clarkson to look for the next Daughtry. Team Enigma maintains that American Band is still a working title, but it's much less of a mouthful than the original title, The Search for the Next Great American Band, but no matter what the title, they hope it can keep the Idol fans occupied until January. But on Friday night? This is going to be more like the next American Juniors. Fox is also hoping the more-established Bones can give the night a pulse, obviously forgetting the Boston Public and Bernie Mac both died on this night, so I'm fearing the worst. ABC and NBC deviated from their original May plans, with Deal or No Deal pushing 1 vs. 100 into midseason limbo and 20/20 moving out of the time slot it called home for two decades. So right now, there's only one option for scripted programming--two if you count rasslin' on The CW. So with Deal struggling on any other night but Monday last year, Love--as in Jennifer Love Hewitt--will conquer all. Advantage: CBS
9:00-10:00 A very difficult hour to find an audience makes this even more difficult to call. Close to Home led for most of the season, but low demographics in February led to its demise, so CBS is calling the freshman drama Moonlight to strengthen the link between Ghost Whisperer and NUMB3RS. It's a good fit out of GW, I'll say that. Las Vegas, which jostled with Close for much of the season, has also vacated the hour to make room for the fittingly-titled Friday Night Lights. Given the collective state of Friday, if I'm Ben Silverman, Team Peacock's new programming head, I will be happy if FNL can match the numbers it attained on Tuesday and Wednesday last season. ABC and Fox are also starting newbies, and I can already see the review for Team Alphabet's Sex in the City-CSI hybrid: "The first rule of Women's Murder Club is you don't watch Women's Murder Club." And if nothing else, Nashville, a limited-run reality show following a group of aspiring country singers, is smiply holding down the hour until New Amsterdam gets off the launching pad, but I see a possible foreshadowing. Between steady ratings for USA's Nashville Star and the continuing post-Idol success of Carrie Underwood (and to a lesser extent, Josh Gracin and Bucky Covington), Bob Rudd, an regular at the alt.tv.american-idol newsgroup who studies demographics for a living, predicts that next year's AI winner will be a Caucasian male country singer. Considering Bob is the only person to rank in the top 10 of all three American Idol Certainty Contests I've run, I think he may be right. Advantage: CBS, only because I doubt anyone else wants it
10:00-11:00 Rob Morrow and David Krumholtz have two new challengers, both imported from other time slots. Like Brothers and Death, Men in Trees showed a creative uptick late in the season and, Anne Heche and company performed respectably enough to earn a second season. Meanwhile, Las Vegas and new series star Tom Selleck shifted to a later hour, which could open the door for racier plot lines. To Ann and Tom: I hate to be the one to tell you this, but you're competiting for second place here. Now that Peter MacNicol and Diane Farr are both back, I'd like to see the Megan-Larry relationship pick up where it left off. I haven't heard much one way or the other on Kathy Najimy or Aya Sumika, though. Advantage: CBS
What I'll be watching: I've had to deal with a Deal or No Deal-Ghost Whisperer conflict before, and if it stays that way coming into CBS's NCAA tournament break, it will get worse when the Elkhart Express, my local basketball team and two-time International Basketball League champions, starts its quest for a threepeat. Sorry, Howie, but since I can only record one of them, my girl Love takes priority here. I may take the 9:00 hour to watch DoND, but Mom thinks Moonlight and Women's Murder Club may be worth checking out. No conflict at 10:00, though; this former math major is ending his week with NUMB3RS.
Nightly Advantage: Clean sweep for CBS

SATURDAY

There you have it. I didn't see much of a change in my predictions from last year, although I'm certain there will be a surprise of two. After all, 12 months ago I said Heroes wouldn't go anywhere. I guess why I'm reluctant to catch onto a new series is because based on the renewal rate of the 2006 freshman class (Jericho was the 10th renewal out of 24 fall series), there is a 58% chance it'll only last 22 episodes or less. Maybe viewers have realized it too, and maybe that led those 2.5 million disgruntled viewers to put their TV sets on eBay. Anyway, the grid may have changed, but my overall season prediction are the same: CBS in households and viewers, Fox in demos.

As always, all opinions on this part of the website are mine and mine alone. If you don't agree with me, get your own website.

And now, back to the Game Show Warehouse!