2006-07 FALL SCHEDULE ANALYSIS

August 16, 2006
Every season has its trends. In 1999-2000, spinoffs were en vouge, with five on the fall schedule--but only one remains on the air today. In the past few seasons, networks took big risks, and that trend is still apparent with this year's slate. And last year brought back four Buffy the Vampire Slayer alumni, and three of their shows made the cut (and the other, Nicholas Brendon, ended up reunited with Charisma Carpenter in an upcoming ABC Family movie). One trend I didn't notice last year is that a number of series, long-running and first-years shows alike, had a lot of pressure placed on them because of their time slots. But there's even more of those this season, as we look at other trends:
Double duty: Something is seriously wrong with the job market, with Ryan Seacrest holding six jobs and me out of the work force altogether the last three years. And for two actors, it seems one six- or seven-figure paycheck isn't enough. Peter MacNichol managed to work a recurring role on 24 around NUMB3RS, while Josh Hopkins, last seen--or not--on Pepper Dennis, signed with two rookies, Vanished and Brothers and Sisters. And of course, with Regis Philbin off saving NBC, ABC is asking to Tom Bergeron to fill four hours a week.
Sticking to the script, part deux: Last year, the NBC was the only network to put new reality series on the fall schedule. Good thing Martha Stewart and Amy Grant have other careers to fall back on, because neither of their reality efforts lived to see New Year's. While all the usual suspects are back, joined by midseason smashes Deal or No Deal and Dancing with the Stars, the only unscripted new starters this fall are ABC and NBC's weekend football packages. You can't script football--just ask all the coaches who got fired because their players flubbed too many lines. Of course, The Apprentice and America's Got Talent will be back in January, along with a certain talent show on Fox. And you just never know just how Team Enigma plans to follow up Skating with Celebrities and Unan1mous.
We'll be right back...in a few months: The problem with scattering 22 episodes through a 35-week season is serialized dramas repeat very poorly. A couple of recent dramas, most notably 24 have worked around this pitfall by running straight through the season with little or no interruption, while Prison Break adopted the split-season format. This season, Lost and ER will take a cue from the latter by taking extended hiatuses to make room for midseason replacements. As it stands right now, The OC will take the 24 route, but with only 16 episodes, a November premiere would put its season (or series) finale in February. Unan1mous 2, anybody?
Benefit of a doubt: With the average life span of a fall premiere at possibly an all-time low, several series that were on the bubble were given renewals. If I was a programmer, I would not have renewed What About Brian, The Bachelor, or The OC, but all three returned, citing loyal demo-friendly audiences that don't show up in the ratings reports accessible to the public. ABC could have made a case for cancelling all of its sitcoms and starting over from scratch, but its two with the longest tenure, According to Jim and George Lopez, will be back after Dancing with the Stars wraps up. Many believe The CW made a rookie mistake by cancelling Everwood in favor of One Tree Hill, which got about half the viewers. After two years, Veronica Mars still has not caught on, but the critics prevailed. And the future of The King of Queens was in doubt, but it had nothing to do with ratings. Fortunately, CBS convinced Kevin James to come back for one more season.
The farm system is deeper than ever: The need for as much original programming as possible has led all five networks to load up for midseason. In addition to those mentioned above, Scrubs, Medium, and Reba are coming back in midseason, and Beauty and the Geek is expected to bridge the gap between America's Next Top Model cycles. And those are just the preexisting shows. One of CBS's reserves, Three Pounds, has been in development for over a year, and thanks to YouTube, two previous failed sitcom pilots are getting a second look.
Teen queens: Renee Olstead, Kaley Cuoco, and Mischa Barton have moved on, but Rachel Bilson, Hilarie Burton, and Kristen Bell are still here. And a celebrity picture site I've been lurking at for some time is excited about seeing Hayden Panetierre, Erika Christensen, and Sarah Ramos on the fall schedule. Unfortunately, the odds of long-term survival past 2007 is not too good for any of these six. In fact, Kristen just can't buy a break, as her current movie Pulse is already on life support at the box office.
Three of a kind on Sunday...: Fox made a logical move (a rarity for them) by switching American Dad with The War at Home, thus grouping all of its animation shows in a 90-minute block, which will grow to 2 hours when King of the Hill returns in January (actually, 2½ if you count rotating repeats at 7:00). CBS, meanwhile, moved The Amazing Race and Without a Trace to Sunday to flank Cold Case, creating a block of three Jerry Bruckheimer shows with rhyming names. I'd like to see Team Eye try to create an ad campaign for that.
...Plus a pair on Friday: While we're at it, CBS missed a promotional opportunity when it moved Close to Home to Friday at 9 after Ghost Whisperer. Now we have two Jennifers back to back, and Team Eye kept them together. Now I'm waiting for NUMB3RS to add yet another Jennifer to its cast, then it'll be perfect.
The matchup of the year: Three Top 20 shows face off Thursday at 9:00: CSI, Grey's Anatomy, and Deal or No Deal. The forecast of all three is glass half empty, glass half full. I have no doubt all will get a good amount of viewers, but the overlap may cause all of them to decline by three or four million viewers each. There are just not enough DVRs to go around. And no, I don't have a DVR. I still have a Betamax, for goodness sake!
And finally, score one for NetFlix: All the movie blocks are gone, at least until college football season ends on ABC. The average viewer's attention span has grown so short and they can't even get to the director's name without changing the channel.

Time to go around the week, one hour at a time, except for Saturday. (Notes: All times are Eastern and Pacific, and the Fox schedule listed is its November to January schedule.)

SUNDAY
7:00 7:30 8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Funniest Home Videos Home Makeover Desperate Housewives Brothers & Sisters
CBS 60 Minutes The Amazing Race* Cold Case* Without a Trace*
NBC Football Night in America Sunday Night Football
Fox The OT Simpsons Amer. Dad* Fam. Guy War@Home*
CW ...Chris* All of Us* Girlfriends* The Game Top Model
Bold = new show  Italics = repeats  * = returning show in new time slot  ** = returning midseason entry  + = new title
My take, hour by hour:
7:00-8:00 One thing that will skew the ratings, especially the fast nationals, is that at 7:00 on the West Coast, NBC's football game is already in progress. I just know that some coach is going to throw the challenge flag at about 7:53 PT or so just so play will be stopped long enough for him to catch Andy Rooney. All of Us is the perfect lead-out for Everybody Hates Chris because of their similarities, but I think The CW could have (and should have) found a much better hour for them than 7:00 Sunday, an hour The WB has conceded for years.  Advantage: CBS
8:00-9:00 If you get your schedule from this site, keep in mind that the Sunday night games kick off at 8:20, not 8:30. The Bruckheimer block begins with The Amazing Race in its fourth time slot in twelve months. Race jumped the shark with last fall's family edition, and the backlash plus the emergence of The Unit left season 9 careening down the ratings. And the competition is tougher than ever. Elsewhere, American Dad did a repectable job hold Family Guy's lead-in, so it should be even better after The Simpsons, which has already been renewed through 2009. Girlfriends was UPN's strongest scripted performer, but will viewers follow it to Sundays? The survival of spin-off The Game depends on it.  Advantage: NBC during the fall, ABC thereafter
9:00-10:00 I'm 0-for-2 on Desperate Housewives as the sophomore slump I thought wouldn't happen happened. Of course, a lot of shows can only dream of drawing 24 million viewers in a down year. If the plot lines don't improve, however, new time slot arrivials Al Michaels and Kathryn Morris will drop that number into the teens. Fox is trying to be a factor, with The War at Home now leading out of Family Guy instead leading into it, but The CW obviously isn't.  Advantage: ABC
10:00-11:00 Grey's Anatomy caught fire last February, but can lightning strike twice with Brothers and Sisters? With Without a Trace's trial run on Sundays actually outdrawing the repeats on Thursdays lately, I don't see it. The NFL couldn't beat CBS on Monday, but will that change on Sunday? This is why NBC lobbied for, and got, a flexible schedule format, an idea whose time has come.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: CBS, but NBC and ABC will make it close, ditto Fox in demos

MONDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Wife Swap The Bachelor: Rome** What About Brian**
CBS The Class How I Met... 2½ Men Old Christine** CSI: Miami
NBC Deal or No Deal** Heroes Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip
Fox Prison Break* Vanished
CW 7th Heaven Runaway
Bold = new show  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 It's rarely wise to start off a night with a rookie, so CBS is taking a chance with The Class. I kind of expect How I Met Your Mother to move to the front of the line before season's end. Wife Swap stayed out of the headlines, and 7th Heaven made headlines of their own. When the cancellation notice came in November, nobody expected the entire network to be cancelled itself two months later. So thanks to a change of heart, and regime, the Camdens are back...some of them, anyway. Prison Break, which begat a trend of split seasons, moves into the three-part manhunt stage for season 2, but the question that will shape this hour is, will Deal or No Deal hold up for an entire season? Critics and fans alike are unanimous on one thing: NBC must tone down the gimmicks and keep the focus on the game. The voice inside my head is telling Team Peacock won't listen. They better...or else.  Advantage: NBC
9:00-10:00 Two and Half Men is the only constant from last year, joined by three new series and two midseason returnees. Some say Julia Louis-Dreyfus finally exorcised the Seinfeld curse with The New Adventures of Old Christine, but I need to remind them that season 2 of Julia's last foray into prime-time, Watching Ellie was one too many. Of course, that season didn't have TV's most-watched sitcom as its lead-in. If Christine makes it to a third season, then we can put the curse away once and for all. Meanwhile, after 36 years of football, ABC is chasing females, the demographic that's keeping The Bachelor alive. Team Alphabet's going to keep trying until a couple finally makes it to the altar. Supernanny is due to return after the adventure in Italy. The three new dramas all come in with chips on their shoulders. Heroes will get big sampling after Deal, but the concept is the weakest of the three. The CW's only new fall drama, Runaway, has to make viewers forget about Everwood. And Vanished, which starts next week, has the most pontential of the three, but with 24 ready to make last year's most intense season ever look like a child's birthday party, it has to prove it's worthy to sticking around.  Advantage: CBS
10:00-11:00 Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip is NBC's most promising new show, but there's no easy time slot for it. It was originally supposed to oppose CSI on Thursday, but when Grey's moved in, NBC panicked and sent the dominos falling. Now it's against the Miami forensics unit. But What About Brian is no Grey's, and it's been shown that two hits can share a time slot. Still, Matthew Perry better get used to second place.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: CBS

TUESDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Dancing with the Stars** Knights... Help Me... Boston Legal
CBS NCIS The Unit** Smith
NBC Friday Night Lights L&O: Criminal Intent* L&O: Special Victims Unit
Fox House* Standoff
CW Gilmore Girls Veronica Mars*
Bold = new show  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 I just said two big hits can co-exist in one time slot, but can three? After two succesful midseason runs, ABC has promoted Dancing with the Stars to the starting lineup. Personally, I think Team Alphabet should have kept it as a midseason show, but I can see they wanted to avoid another Tom Bergeron vs. Ryan Seacrest confrontation. And now Team Enigma has deviated from the original Tuesday plan, moving House to the front of the line. And CBS is holding firm with NCIS, coming off its hgihest-rated season yet. This hour is going to be a nightmare for Mom, a Dancing fan who got sucked in to NCIS during its summer run on Fridays and House after finding the off-network repeats on USA. And we haven't even mentioned what's coming in January! As for the rest of the field, talk of this being Gilmore Girls's final season--Lauren Graham is in the last year of her contract--may place it up there with 7th Heaven. But it's a toss-up as to whether Friday Night Lights will even make it to the end of high school football season. I'm taking the under.  Advantage: ABC to start, Fox to finish
9:00-10:00 I don't blame Fox for moving Standoff here from its originally scheduled 8:00 hour. Now it's after House rather than before it, and the competition looks much lighter. True, The Unit exceeded everybody's expectations by actully building on an already red-hot NCIS lead-in. But once you get past that, you've got unproven comedies The Knights of Prosperity and Help Me Help You and two dramas in new time slots. Criminal Intent starts a two-hour Law & Order block--one of two on NBC's schedule--while The CW got the pairing of Gilmore Girls and Veronica Mars it was dreaming about since the merger announcement. But this is Kristen Bell's third lead-in in as many seasons, so this time viewers are out of excuses not to watch. Still, I'm giving this hour to Dennis Haysbert and company for now, but when Hugh Laurie comes back home in January, it's going to get very interesting.  Advantage: CBS
10:00-11:00 Two of the three dramas in last year's field are back, but CBS has its third different starter in as many seasons. Close to Home is doing all right after its move to Friday, but in the long term Team Eye shouldn't have cancelled Judging Amy after all, and I don't think Smith will change that. Mom's choice is Boston Legal since she has another chance to see SVU on USA, but most of Christopher and Mariska's fans won't wait.  Advantage: NBC
Nightly Advantage: Four different networks have a case to win at least one week, but the overall season averages will go in Fox's favor

WEDNESDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Dancing with the Stars** Lost The Nine
CBS Jericho Criminal Minds CSI:NY
NBC 20 Good Years 30 Rock The Biggest Loser** Kidnapped
Fox Bones* Justice
CW America's Next Top Model One Tree Hill*
Bold = new show  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 For the second straight year, my pick to win the hour got cancelled. In fact, there technically wasn't a winner at all, since this hour looks almost nothing like last year. After telling Martha "you're fired", NBC is going with comedy by the numbers, another marketing slogan that the networks didn't think of. But here's another sign of America's lack of creativity: Studio 60 is a one-hour drama that goes behind the scenes of a popular late-night sketch comedy. 30 Rock is a half-hour sitcom that goes behind the scenes of a popular late-night sketch comedy. And isn't NBC the network that has a popular late-night sketch comedy? Not exactly coincidence. I hope Tina Fey won't regret leaving SNL for this. Hopefully NBC will at least hold on it at least until Dancing with the Stars vacates the floor. With some combination of According to Jim, George Lopez, and rookies Big Day and Notes from the Underbelly waiting in the wings and Bones moving to Friday in January (big mistake, IMO), the hour will soon be wide open. New network aside, Top Model is the lone constant from last year, and I don't see the writers' and editors' strike hampering it much. We have twins this year, folks! Most consider CBS's Jericho to be the first drama cancelled, but now comes the announcement that Team Eye will make downloadable episodes available for purchase. Will that be the ace in the hole that keeps it from getting nuked early? No, more like 10-2 offsuit.  Advantage: ABC--but only until December. After that, it's anybody's guess.
9:00-10:00 Compared to last year's complete revamp, this hour looks a little more stable. Two shows unchanged, two more moved from other time slots, and only one new series. Unfortunately for Fox, this is the hour where Head Cases rolled over and died after just two weeks, and I don't see Justice doing much better. Again, my first clue is it's not on Team Engima's January schedule. But I don't think very many expected Criminal Minds to have a breakout first year like it did. Mom's not a big fan of Mandy Pantikin at all, but she got hooked right away. Still, there's no doubt Lost will continue to carry this hour, but midseason cop drama Day Break will have the task of filling the hour for 13 weeks to eliminate reruns. Will Taye Diggs's return to prime time make viewers forget about Kevin Hill?  Advantage: ABC
10:00-11:00 Last year, I did pick CSI:NY to win the hour, but I did say this hour "could go any which way." Just another prediction I want back. Invasion failed to hold its lead-in, while Law & Order continue to fade against another New York-based procedural. Now Gary Sinise and company are opposed by two rookies. No contest here.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: Another tale of two seasons--ABC in the fall, Fox from winter on

THURSDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Ugly Betty Grey's Anatomy* Six Degrees
CBS Survivor: Cook Islands CSI Shark
NBC ... Earl* The Office* Deal or No Deal** ER
Fox 'Til Death Happy Hour The OC
CW Smallville Supernatural*
Bold = new show  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 You know something is wrong with NBC Thursday when My Name is Earl fared better on Tuesday. The Office, on the other hand, did show an uptick in its movie to the hollowed ground that used to be Must-y...er, Must-See TV. The critics' praise of both gave Team Peacock no reason to keep Joey despite what I said last year about it, but now both have the uneviable task of going up against Survivor. Two of this year's promising rookies, Ugly Betty and 'Til Death also have their work cut it for them, but regardless of how Brad Garrett does, don't get attached to Happy Hour. That's my first choice in the Allison LaPlaca Open.  Advantage: CBS
9:00-10:00 At first glance, with this being a game show site, you would think I would choose Deal or No Deal over CSI in this three-way car crash. Last season I would have, but it happened last spring: Mom finally got me sucked into CSI. Hey, 27 million people can't all be wrong. Welcome to my VCR, Howie. Incidentally, I should clear up an error from last year's preview: I said in that Los Angeles episode featured only two main cast members, both in small roles. Actually, one of the lead investigators was Capt. Brass (Paul Guilfoyle). The addition of Grey's Anatomy do a lot better than Night Stalker, and Team Merger (my NASCAR-type cognomen for The CW) was smart to keep Smallville and Supernatural together. But I believe the sun will set on The OC in February.  Advantage: CBS
10:00-11:00 How much longer ER will remain competitive has been debated for years, but with Without a Trace moving to Sunday, this is the time to regain its luster. But don't sleep on Shark. With strong lead-in support from CSI, James Woods may steal this hour. But considering how Invasion squandered in big lead-in last year, Six Degrees may leave ABC counting the days until PrimeTime Live returns.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: CBS

FRIDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC Amer.'s Funniest Home Videos Men in Trees 20/20
CBS Ghost Whisperer Close to Home* NUMB3RS
NBC Crossing Jordan* Las Vegas* Law & Order*
Fox Nanny 911** Trading Spouses**
CW Friday Night SmackDown!!
Bold = new show  Italics = repeats  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry
My take, hour by hour:
8:00-9:00 I did give Ghost Whisperer a chance, and I wasn't alone. In fact, Jennifer Love Hewitt's return to television was a success, winning the time slot regularly until Deal or No Deal arrived. But Crossing Jordan, a consistant performer on Sundays, will give her the battle that Dateline and Three Wishes couldn't last year. With original occupant Ugly Betty moved to Thursday, ABC may have to resort to a whole seaosn's worth of America's Funnniest Home Videos repeats. Compared to what's been on this night in recent years, that's actually an improvement. Fox's reality tandem of Nanny 911 and Trading Spouses a lot more respectable then they used to be, but as I said earlier, they're making a mistake moving Bones to this hour in midseason. Yes, Mom dragged me into that show, too. I don't believe I've watched this much prime time TV in a typical week since NBC cancelled Miss Match. As for Team Merger, the WWE has seen better days, but we've all seen worse.  Advantage: NBC
9:00-10:00 There's only one first-year show on this night, Men In Trees. And given the competition, it doesn't stand a chance. There's no question Close to Home can thrive for an entire season on Friday with a more compatible lead-in than The Amazing Race. But Las Vegas, which started last season on Mondays but got pushed out by The Apprentice, lost a considerable amount of steam. But it's not time to cash out yet.  Advantage: CBS, but not by much
10:00-11:00 After years of failed new dramas in this hour, Team Peacock is turning to its longest-running show--the second-longest running drama of all time, behind Gunsmoke--to put out the fire. Summer repeats are not the way to gauge how the regular season will go, but L&O stands to get run over by a show that debuted 14½ years after it. And you guessed it, NUMB3RS is how I've been ending my Friday nights lately. As for 20/20, ABC has not acknowledged it, but this is the veteran newsmagazine's 30th anniversary year. The way ratings have sunk in the last few years, I doubt it's going to make it to 40.  Advantage: CBS
Nightly Advantage: CBS

SATURDAY
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
ABC ESPN Saturday Night College Football
CBS Crimetime Saturday 48 Hours Mystery
NBC Dateline Law & Order**
Fox Cops America's Most Wanted
Bold = new show  Italics = repeats  * = returning show in new timeslot  ** = returning midseason entry
My take: And last and certainly least, here is Saturday. Sorry ABC, but college football is not going to bring viewers back. After NBC started the last couple of years with movies only to substitute repeats from the L&O brand by midseason, the Dick Wolf Collection is now permanent. For years I've been saying that the networks are going to give up on this night eventually, but it looks like that won't happen. I don't know the going rate for ad time on Saturdays, but if we assume an average of $50,000 per 30-second spot and 12 minutes of commercials an hour--not counting local ads and network promos--the four networks do rake in a combined $13.2 million a week in ad revenue. That's a lot to lose over the course of the season.  Advantage: NBC by a hair in viewers, but Fox runs away with adults 18-49

Once again I picked NBC to win last year and once again I had egg on my face. You know you've had a bad year when not even the Olympics can lift you out of fourth place. The other networks (most of them, anyway) knew an Winter Olympiad with not many big names among American athletes was a good time to counterprogram, and the rings lost their shine. Considering how many CBS shows have attracted me last year, I'm going to wise up and pick CBS in households and viewers. But look for a threepeat in the money demo for Fox. You can try, but you just can't stay away from American Idol.

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