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Nathan Sanders's Survivor Certainty Contest has inspired similar contests on the newsgroups of other popular elimination shows, such as American Idol. You pick the singers who you think will go the farthest. The longest they last, the more points you score. At the end of the season, the player with the highest score wins.
1. This contest is open to all subscribers of the alt.tv.american-idol newsgroup (ATAI, for short), regardless whether they are regulars, semi-regulars, or lurkers. There is no limit on the size of the field. The more, the merrier. Non-ATAI members who visit my website, the Game Show Warehouse, can also enter if they so desire.
2. On Friday, March 6, 2009, the day after the thirteen finalists are announced, I will post a call for entries on ATAI. Players wishing to participate may either reply to the newsgroup or e-mail me at tjwuthrich[at]verizon[dot]net. (Remember to replace the words in brackets with the punctuation they describe.)
1. Each player wishing to participate will be given 100 Certainty Points (CPs) to distribute among the thirteen AI finalists however he/she wishes, based on how certain he/she is that each will be named the American Idol.
2. The following restricitions apply on dividing your CPs:
Other than that, you have complete flexibilty. You can give CPs to all thirteen performers, or to just four of them, or anything in between, as long as you comply with the restrictions above.
3. If an entry is determined to be invalid, the player will be notified of what he/she did wrong and will be asked to try again.
4. If I receive multiple entries from a single participant, I will accept his/her latest valid entry. In other words, I will assume that subsequent entries are updates to old entries.
Let's use season 4's finalists as an example. you are 40% certain that Carrie Underwood will win the competition, 30% certain that Constantine Maroulis will win, 25% certain that Bo Bice will win, 3% sure that Scott Savol will win, and 2% sure of Mikalah Gordon, your entry would look like this:
Carrie Underwood - 40 Constantine Maroulis - 30 Bo Bice - 25 Scott Savol - 3 Mikalah Gordon - 2
Last names or nicknames are optional, but make sure I know where the CPs are going. Also, they do not have to be in any order, although I would advise arranging the names alphabetically to make the "record-keeping" a little easier. Just don't try to give points to people like Casey Carlson (eliminated in the semifinals), David Osmond (eliminated in the Hollywood rounds), Mark Mudd (did not pass the initial audition), Kelly Clarkson (wrong season), or Dennis Rodman (wrong show). J
5. Entries must be timestamped before Tuesday, March 10, 2009, 5:00 pm Eastern Time (4pm CT/2pm PT)--three hours before the first finals performance show airs in the Eastern and Central time zones. Be sure to include the name you wish to go by in the standings. If you do not sign a name, I will take the name in the "From" header of the entry.
1. On the first Wednesday of the final stage, the two singers with the fewest votes from viewers will be eliminated from the competition, with one singer eliminated each Wednesday thereafter. As singers are cut, each is assigned a placement based on how long he/she lasted. For example, the first finalist cut is given a placement of 1, the second 2, the third 3, and so on up to 13 for the winner. This placement is multiplied by the number of CPs you have placed on that singer, and your total score is determined by adding up the multiplied points. The player with the highest score at the end of the season is the winner.
Going back to the example above, and bearing in mind there were 12 singers in that year's finals, you may recall that Carrie won, Bo was the runner-up, Scott was the ninth finalist eliminated, Constantine was the sixth one out, and Mikalah lasted only two weeks. Here's how your final score is calculated:
| NAME | CPs | PLACEMENT | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrie | 40 | 12 | 40 x 12 = 480 |
| Constantine | 30 | 6 | 30 x 6 = 180 |
| Bo | 25 | 11 | 25 x 11 = 275 |
| Scott | 3 | 9 | 3 x 9 = 27 |
| Mikalah | 2 | 2 | 2 x 2 = 4 |
| GRAND TOTAL | 966 | ||
2. (The Corey Clark Exception) In the event that a performer is released from the competition during the finals for reasons not involving the viewer vote and is not replaced by another performer, that performer will be given a placement of zero, meaning all CPs placed on him/her are lost.
3. (The Mario Vasquez Exception) If a performer drops out of the competition voluntarily and is replaced by another performer, the alternate will automatically assume all CPs originally placed on the departing finalist. If the departure occurs during the entry period, like it did in season 4, players can still change their entries.
4. (The Stacey/Richardson Rule) In the event two or more performers are eliminated solely by viewer vote in the same week, the one with the lowest vote total shall take the lower placement. For example, had this contest been in conducted in season 1, Ejay Day would have a placement of 1 and Jim Verraros 2. If the identities of the lowest- and next-lowest totals are not revealed (i.e. Phil Stacey and Chris Richardson in the final 6 of Season 6), both singers will be awarded the higher placement. By defintion, a singer's placement is the number of singers eliminated during the finals up to that point, including him/herself.
5. In case any event not outlined above takes place, the commissioner (which am I) reserves the right to make an executive decision.
The Certainty Contest is a game of strategy. To win, you want to place the most CPs on the singers you think will last the longest. Using the rules above, the best possible entry is 50 CPs on the winner, 48 on the runner-up, and 1 on each of the third- and fourth-place finishers, which would result in a score (50 x 13) + (48 x 12) + (1 x 11) + (1 x 10) = 650 + 576 + 11 + 10 = 1,247 points. However, if your 50-CP and 48-CP singers both go out in week 1, with the 50-pointer having the lowest vote total, and your other two picks go the next two weeks, you'd have the lowest possible score of (50 x 1) + (48 x 2) + (1 x 3) + (1 x 4) = 153 points. Your final score will fall somewhere in between 153 and 1,247, with the average score being 700.
The safest strategy is to assign CPs evenly to all thirteen finalists. This works out to 7 CPs per singer with nine of them getting a eighth CP, since 100 is not evenly divisible by 13. This raises your minimum score to (7 x 46) + (8 x 45) = 682 points, but the best you can do is (7 x 10) + (8 x 81) = 718 points. Since this method offers very little deviation from the 700 average, the better strategy is to take risks, but watch out. If Simon Cowell compares your 50-CP singer's week 1 performance to chocolate-onion ice cream, your risk could backfire.
New to Season 8, a new rule allows the judges a one-time-only chance to save one contestant each season from elimination. Because this rule may have affected some Certainty Contest entries, a secondary contest has been opened after the first week.
1. Everybody who has already submitted an entry is automatically entered into the new Certainty Contest Do-Over, and new players are welcome to join during this period.
Second chance entries are due Tuesday, March 17, 2009, at 5:00 pm Eastern Time (4pm CT/2pm PT).
2. How the judges' veto works: When an elimination is announced, the judges confer on whether or not they want to save that contestant. The vote must be unanimous, and they can only grant one exemption per season. If the viewer vote is overtuned, no contestant is eliminated that week, but two contestants will be eliminated the following week.
3. When a double elimination occurs, placements will be treated as in Step #4 in the Scoring section.
4. Player veto! Just as the judges have been granted the power of veto, so do the players! Once and only once, each player may veto an elimination by reassigning all CPs placed on the singer eliminated that week to another singer of their choice. However, this new singer must be one that he/she has not placed any CPs on previously. For example, if you have CPs on Matt Giraud but none on Danny Gokey, you could transfer Matt's CPs to Danny if Matt is eliminated first.
5. If you use your veto after a double elimination, you may reassign only one singer's CPs.
6. The veto deadline for each week is when the next performance show begins on the East Coast, which is Tuesday night at 8:00 pm Eastern Time (7pm CT/5pm PT). All vetos, for both judges and players, expire when five singers remain.
1. Once your final entry is submitted, all you have to do from then on is root (and vote) for your favorite singers. After the East Coast airing of the results show--usually within 24 hours--I will post the weekly leaderboard showing the current scores and remaining CPs for all participants. If you live in the Mountain or Pacific time zone, however, please be advised that the standings may be posted before the show airs on your Fox station (if I do it Wednesday, it's one less thing I have to do on Thursday). You might also be an irrepressible fan of Criminal Minds or Lost and watch AI on tape or DVR later. Either way, this post may be considered a spoiler.
2. If the CPs on an other wise valid entry do not total exactly 100, the individual CPs will be proportionally calculated. For example, a split of 50-20-11-9, which adds up to 90, would become 50-25-14-11.
3. Like on the Survivor contest, I will calculate the average number CPs for all performers and use this to create a false entry. You can use this entry to gauge how you are doing against the field as a whole.
4. Because I, commissioner of the ATAI Certainty Contest, have no advance knowledge of how the votes will go (how can I, since AI is live on the East Coast from here on out?), I have the option to participate as well.
5. On the weekly leaderboard, players will be ranked based on their expected score, the average of the highest and lowest possible scores they can achieve. According to Nathan, this gives a more accurate picture of who has the best chance of winning the contest than ranking by best-case or worst-case score. All three of these scores will match the current score after the final week.
6. If two or more players are tied for first place at the end of the season, the player who has given the most CPs to the eventual Idol will win. If the players are still tied, the player who has given the most CPs to the runner-up will win, and so on. If the tying entries turn out to be identical, the player who submitted his/her entry first will be ruled the winner.
7. An entry in the Veto Contest will not affect your original Certainty Contest entry. They are two separate contests, giving you two chances to win!
8. The winner won't receive a trophy, a recording contract, or any other kind of tangible reward, but you can't put a value on the bragging rights over the rest of the group.
Remember, contest entries are due Tuesday, March 10, 2009, at 5:00 pm Eastern Time.
If you have any questions, e-mail me at tjwuthrich[at]verizon[dot]net. (Again, substitute the proper punctuation for the words in brackets.) Enjoy!
-- Jason Wuthrich
This contest does not now nor will it ever challenge 19 Entertainment or FremantleMedia North America for ownership for American Idol.
For more Certainty Contest action, visit Nathan Sanders's Survivor Contest or Peca Fan's Amazing Race Contest.
Return to the results page or visit the Game Show Warehouse.
